Variants / Interesting article

[RichieP]

this is copied from the HTR board and references two of the best variant makers in the business. Cj and HDW.

Notice the question raised here by the poster who is EXTREMELY sharp capper in his own right.

here is the link which might make for easier reading.
http://www.homebased2.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5576

Calling HDW: A real head scratcher at PHA on 6-12 

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I posted a similar note on Craig's Pacefigures.com board and I'm interested in hearing from HDW on how two respectable, accurate and credible figure-makers could come up with such a diametrically opposed view of the variants at Philly Park. 

That CJ got it right is not the point. I'm not in the finger-pointing business and I did not bet the race.
I'd just like to know how these things happen. (Tonight, HDW will get a longshot right and CJ will blow one. Besides it looked like EVERYONE had the same call on the race given the winner's $24 price)

6th race on June 12 --- long story short: Here are how the two figure makers saw the last line of Pasta and the race winner B. Murray. First fig is the pace followed by the speed figure. (not the performance figure CJ uses.) 

Pacefigures.com

Pasta May 7th 93 83
Murray May 30th 92 91

Yet HDW gives Pasta a 72 final figure to a 58 for Murray. 

Both services use the Beyer scale. 

Further according to pacefigures, Murray pressed a 105 !!! pace on 5/30 compared to a 93 for Pasta. 
HTR/HDW saw Pasta's race as a 99 PAC compared to a 95 for Murray's. 

How could the differentials be so large???

How could Pacefigures.com see Murray's race as having a 4-5 length faster pace than Pasta's while HTR saw Pasta's race as about 3-4 lengths faster at the pace call? I know it's largely a question for CJ but I would be interested in hearing what HDW or Ken thinks.

Here's the real screwy part: Murray's race went in 107.9 while Pasta's went in 110. For the same 20K claimers. 
That would lead you to conclude HDW/HTR had the variant pegged correctly -- that Murray's race had to be adjusted downward.

Yet Pacefigures was correct -- Murray's was apparently the better race and he won on 6/12 paying $24.
Pasta was 4-5 so I presume every figure-maker saw the same thing as HDW. (I didn't see the Beyers.)
__________________
huguenot

[Ted Craven]

I thought Ron Tiller's (from HDW) response was, as always, quite insightful and prompts one to take a deep breath and just move on. TrackMaster's relevant variant was yet different still.

Never-the-less, who would you have bet on (also considering what the 7 and 3 NTLs are likely to do to each other to the 2nd call)?

Ted

[socantra]

Apples and Oranges. Everybody's figures are different. CJ does not use a set of adjusted pars on his final figure. He uses the Beyer universal par and all adjustments are made thru the variant.

He does keep a pace par for individual tracks, but unlike other pars, his is based on the winner's time rather than the pace of the race.

There are many ways to do figures, and every one of them is going to be wrong a certain percentage of the time. Comparing them race to race will make you very crazy very quickly.

Dick...