Keeneland 2nd - 4/7/17 (for Mick)

[Jeebs]

4up F&M Starter Allowance for horses starting for $7.5k or less in 2016-17. Distance 6 1/2F

Pacelines (Reader's Digest version) - We used #2's last line to establish today's probable pace.
#1 - Line 2/Press
#2 - Line 1/Early
#3 - Line 6/EP
#4 - Line 2/Press
#5 - Line 3/Press
#6 - No Line/Non-competitive vs. today's pace
#7 - No Line/Ugly

Based on the Total Energy lines, the match-up appears to be a close contest between 3-2-1.

Even though on paper #2 has what appears to be a pace advantage, I suspect that this is an extremely vulnerable favorite. Here is my BL/BL with my Top 4 lines:



I'm not saying that #2 will lose here (the horse is 3/5 for a reason), but in this case, the money making potential would be Win betting #3 and #1 and keying them in say a DD or Pick 3 to potentially extract more value out of the race if you have opinions in Races 3 and/or 4.

[Jeebs]

The public's $$$ was right on this race. The #2's speed was alive and well over this Keeneland strip with minimal to no pressure.

[Lt1]

Not seeing much value in r3 so far I have 5-1-6-3
r4 I most likely will pass here but have it 1-6-2-8.
Tim G

[Jeebs]

Race 3, I saw a race with multiple runners starting new form cycles, and multiple runners off 100+ days. I'll gladly pass and find greener pastures.

[Lt1]

Nothing wrong with that but when it comes to these types of meets I bend a little more since like at Sar and Del Mar there are trainers and owners who point certain of their horses specifically for these meets. You will also find tracks like Woodbine, Mnr ,FL etc that take the winter off and most of the horses are turned out. Again taking a wait and see approach is fine. At 1 Las Vegas seminar I believe it was Ted who asked the Doc about how to handle Woodbine with all the returning horses from layoffs. If I remember correctly Docs' answer was treated them like they ran last week. It's on the Vegas seminar tape if you want the exact answer. I believe Vic Palermo also chimed in on a track in his area with the same scenario.
Tim G

[Mitch44]

I didn't get back in time to this one. However your top 3 were all in the money therefore you did a great job with picking lines etc. Jeebs.

The same way you get the $3.00,$4.00 & $5.00 winner is the way you get those big paying horses. You have wait for the public to make a mistake, even the EX here wasn't worth a bet based on what the ex. paid.

Nice work Jeebs
Mitch44

[mick]

Jeebs,

Just watched the Keeneland 4th, a MC50. An example of how early speed usually holds, especially if there isn't a hot pace. Castellano hustled the 7 to the lead and he held on to win, paying $31. The horse had never been on the lead before, never even close to the lead, but the jockey knew where he needed to be at Keeneland.

So, we've had three gate-to-wire winners and in the other, the winner pressed the leader hard and won by a neck. Most dirt tracks are like this, to some degree or another, but at Keeneland it really tilts toward early.

[Bill V.]

Nice call Jeebs

Mitch is correct work your races !!! and the prices will come,

Good job in race 2

Bill

[mick]

And no sooner have I posted about the 4th, when I'm proven wrong in the 5th!

I bet #9 who took the lead down the backstretch, but she was pressured on the turn and caught against the rail by the even-money favorite and eventual winner. Still, she was only beaten a length and finished third. Fortunately, I opted in to the TVG Money Back promo for Opening Day, so I'll get my money back.

[Lt1]

If anyone is interested the video I referenced was the 1993 Vegas seminar which is available in the video section.
Tim G