New Pace Update In RDSS

[bewalter]

Hi Ted,

I saw that you you were involved with the NewPace Seminar last night. Is the NewPace that you implemented the advanced version? And, if not, when are you going to update to it.

Best regards,
Bill

[Ted Craven]

Hi Bill!

Yes, I did listen live to that NewPace seminar. I only ever implemented the ORIGINAL NewPace formulas in RDSS, not the subsequent Advanced version from a few years ago. I heard Dave give a 'qualified' endorsement to the Advanced NP over the Original NP, but then again, I also heard him basically say (publicly and privately) that he now does away with the formulas he originally created for identifying Early horses (i.e. the 'population sample' approach described by Hubbard in 'How to Measure Anything'), and thus the compliment of the Early horses = the Late horses. So - that does not give me much inspiration to update the existing RDSS NP formulas to a newer but still older version of NP - when the author now uses neither.

Instead, unless I misunderstood Dave's presentation, he proposes using a variety of methods to identify Early horses (Quirin Early Speed Points, Running Style designations, etc) and then engage in various methods to qualify and eliminate some of these Earlies by Form, Class methods, etc. (And same again for Late horses, which he identifies by some means.)

Essentially, he is describing a handicapping methodology based around finding the best Early horses (who can still Win), the best Late horses (who can still Win), then finding a way to eliminate enough of the pool on the prime contenders to warrant a bet. Hmmm ... sounds like Sartin Methodology circa 1990 - 2015!

Further to my comment to Dave, which he repeated in the seminar (and thanks Dave!) about me implementing this new NewPace in an upcoming RDSS release later this year - well, there were no real details or formulas I could identify which are NOT already part of RDSS or long-standing Sartin Methodology tools. Including ways to identify Early horses (Running Style, Matchup Projected Pace tool, Quirin Early Speed Points, the Early/Late Differential Screen, existing NewPace) then qualify them as true contenders by BLBL/VDC, CSR factors as well as non-velocity/speed factors such as the CR Class Rating, then identify betting opportunities among the top 4 or 5 contenders by using the live Tote board feed to see percentage of the pool represented by those contenders versus the downgraded non-contenders (and use extra insight from the Tote Xray readout).

Long way of saying that - IMO - the handicapping approach he described, aside from the wonderful tools I'm sure he has in his HSH software - is also represented quite nicely today in RDSS! And will be enhanced very nicely later this year.

Just my opinion! But, to answer your original question again, at the moment I guess I don't have a plan to update the NewPace component in RDSS. Though I am open to suggestions, as always!

Hope that helps. All the best in the Windy City!

Ted

[Dave Schwartz]

Ted,

Actually, that "variety of methods" includes BOTH the one from original NewPace and the Advanced workshop version.

In addition, I also use (simply) Quirin ES Pts and a high-level factor in HSH called "Composite Early Speed."

That gives me 3 objects.

Finally, I have 3 other objects which are a combination of the first 3.

The idea is a slightly different point of view. BTW, some people may find that they CAN use pace ratings for the E1 object. The problem comes in if the ratings are TOO GOOD. If you are going to use them, don't use an eye dropper but a bucket. Consider (say) 2.5 to 3.5 lengths a tie and include some running style.

Ironically, the E1 object can be the most complex; most difficult to compute.

If you were to concentrate on a single object - something as simple as ES Pts - you will not be that far off, so don't let it keep you up at night.

If you decide to use ES Pts, I would suggest this:

1) E1= 5+ points
2) minimum of top 3 horses
3) Nothing less than a 3pt horse can be an E1.

Thus, if you had:

7,6,4,3,3,2 - E1= 7-6-4
8,7,6,5,5,5,4,3,2 - E1= 8,7,6,5,5,5
6,5,2,1,0,0,0,0 - E1= 6,5

In that last example, I would automatically qualify the 6 & 5 pt horses on E2.

5,2,2,1,0,0,0 - DO NOT USE PACE ON THIS RACE!

Without a 7 or 8 in the race, you need 3 E1s.

BTW, if you have:
7, 3,3,3,2,1, - The 7 will likely go to the front but probably at least two of the 3's will go with him, screwing up the pace for everyone. My experience is NOT that the 7-pt has an easy time of it. Jockeys and trainers read the Form, too.


Dave

PS: Ted, I agree with your current assessment of RDSS. I would say that users can probably find all they need to apply (and expand) the capabilities of NewPace.