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01-23-2013, 09:35 AM | #1 |
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A question for Ted, or a moderator
My question is about "average pace" (AP). In "pace makes the race", Brohamer seemed to put a lot a weight on this rating. Is AP included in RDSS on a different name, or is it obsolete?
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01-23-2013, 10:49 AM | #2 | |
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Fw
Quote:
The algorithm's may have been tweaked but I believe they represent the same thing. To quote Dick Schmidt. Factor W EP+SP=FW EP is EARLY PACE, which is the average speed to the second call (routes or sprints) expressed in feet per second. SP is SUSTAINED PACE, which is the third fraction in feet per second added to EP and divided by two. I believe that Tom did call this Average Pace, but it is the same factor and works just the same. The two names were used interchangeably in the Sartin Methodology. Tom also at times used Factor X, which is indeed the first and third fractions added together and divided by two and Turn Time, which is the second fraction alone. He always liked TT, as it had to be calculated and was not obvious in the PP's. Most people were too lazy to do it before computers made everything easy. Dick Last edited by Houndog; 01-23-2013 at 10:56 AM. Reason: Adding to post |
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01-23-2013, 01:10 PM | #3 | |
The egg man
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Quote:
There is nothing from Tom Brohamer about Average pace in Pace Makes The Race at least not in the original version Did you mean Toms own book Modern Pace Handicapping In the original Pace Makes The Race only 3 readouts are applied Early Pace, Final Fraction -3rd fraction and Total Pace which is EP + FF = Total Pace Later in the book they do get into turn time and the very basics of deceleration All readouts of Pace Makes The Race / Phase 1 are easy to apply in RDSS2 The headings are different but its on the TPR/E-L Tab Last edited by Bill V.; 01-23-2013 at 01:12 PM. |
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01-23-2013, 04:00 PM | #4 |
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Thanks Houndog for your answer. I knew the AP had to be somewhere in RDSS, because so much emphasiis was put on it.
Bill V, I would not have mentioned Brohamer's name in my question if I did not read the book myself. For your reference, it is the second edition of "Modern Pace Handicapping". On page 4, it says " Average Pace (AP) is the average of all three fractions in sprints, and the average of EP and SP in routes. By itself, Average Pace is the most consistent winner-producer of any rating in the array". |
01-23-2013, 04:25 PM | #5 |
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Bill, I just realized that I had mentioned "pace makes the race" in my initial post. My mistake. You were right. it is on "Modern Pace Handicapping". I own both books, which I had purchased at once. Some of the subjects are common to both books, which would explain my confusion.
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01-23-2013, 05:27 PM | #6 |
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Summary
Here are my added thoughts, FWIW, though Houndog and Bill V have covered it pretty much.
Per Brohamer (per the Sartin Methodology Phase III, circa early 1990's): Average Pace in sprints = the average of all 3 fractions. Whether you average factors [(F1+F2+F3) / 3] or simply sum them [F1+F2+F3] - you get the same information when you rank them or measure gaps between them. Total Energy (in RDSS) = F1+F2+F3, thus AP in sprints = Total Energy. Average Pace in routes = (EP + SP) / 2 or (1/2 EP + 1/2 SP) Early Pace = EP = velocity to the 2nd Call. In RDSS, either 2nd call velocity (SC) or EPR = velocity to the 2nd Call. Sustained Pace = SP = (EP+F3) / 2 or (1/2 EP plus 1/2 F3) So restating Average Pace in routes: (1/2 EP) plus (1/2 EP plus 1/2 F3) or 1x EP plus 1/2 F3 In RDSS we have no factor which is 1 times Second call velocity (SC or EPR or EP) plus half of F3. Instead, we have 1x EPR plus 1x LPR (F3) = CPR (or TPR, if you prefer). Thus, CPR has more F3 in it than AP for routes (1x F3 versus 1/2 x F3) Thus, in RDSS: Total Energy = Average Pace in Sprints CPR ~= Average Pace (AP) in routes (a bit more F3) If AP = FW in Phase III (MPH), it became more nuanced later. In RDSS, FW in sprints = (2x EPR)+LPR. In routes, FW = EPR + (2x LPR). The MPH FactorX (F1+F3) / 2 = RDSS FX = F1+F3 (same thing) The MPH Turn Time (TT) = RDSS TT = F2 velocity %Early EP/(EP+SP) evolved to %Median or (F1+F2) / (F1+F2+F3) Hidden Energy is not given in MPH, but it is (roughly) F2+F3 = HID (in later Sartin DOS programs and in RDSS). So that's the map between Modern Pace Handicapping (Sartin Phase III) factors and their equivalents in RDSS (and Speculator, Validator, Synthesis and other programs). RDSS factors other than these evolved since MPH times, covered in many Follow Ups (or by subsequent discussion here). MPH described factors are based on FPS velocity calculations, whereas in Pace makes the Race, EPR, LPR, TPR (or CPR) the calculations are based on a points based difference from a set of par times by distance - but they amount to fundamentally the same measurements. Of course, in later software (and RDSS) all running times (and velocities and points-based factors) are adjusted by a Daily Track Variant, an Inter-Track variant (DTV and ITV supplied by TrackMaster), a distance equalization to today's distance and a surface equalization factor (calculated internally). cheers, Ted
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01-23-2013, 06:11 PM | #7 |
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Ted, Thanks very much for your elaborate input. I am glad I asked that question, because, after reading about the AP, in "Pace makes the race", I was considering purchasing a separate software, just to calculate the AP for me, since I did not see it anywhere in RDSS. I will be paying more attention to "TE" and "CPR" from now on.
Thanks. |
01-23-2013, 06:43 PM | #8 | |
The egg man
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Quote:
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12-11-2013, 09:54 AM | #9 |
AlwNW1X
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Ted you stated that "Early Pace = EP = velocity to the 2nd Call. In RDSS, either 2nd call velocity (SC) or EPR = velocity to the 2nd Call."
When I look at EPR, on the TPR + EL tab, I see figures in the 80's and 90's. When I look at SC,on the POH tab, I see figures in the 50's. How is EPR calculated? |
12-11-2013, 02:24 PM | #10 | |
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Quote:
The EPR (Early Pace Rating) and the SC Second Call Velocity numbers, and ranks for each - should be almost identical to each other. They are simply calculated in different ways. EPR is a component of the points based rating system (Total Pace Ratings - TPR) described in the book Pace Makes the Race, by Hambleton, Pizzolla, Schmidt, Sartin et al in 1991 ('an intro to the Sartin Methodology'). Essentially, a baseline 2nd call time (adjusted) in sprints and routes is given a 100 point rating, then times slower than that are less than 100 and times faster are greater than 100. The same 100 points basis is established for the 3rd Fraction, equalized at the various different 3rd fraction distances according to total race distance. The concept calculations described in PMTR are essentially what we use today in RDSS. That EPR points rating still relies upon a 2nd call time (adjusted). The same 2nd call time is also expressed as a velocity - which is what is shown on the Velocity Tabs. The original Yellow Manual, and also Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping describe how to calculate velocities = feet per second values which are often in the 50's at the 2nd call point. So both velocity-based, and points-based representations of 'average speed' during a race segment (e.g. from beginning to the 2nd call point) show the same thing - in different ways. The ranks of the different races, and horses, measured are the same. Also the same is the 2nd Call Computed Beaten Length number on the Segments screen. They ALL mean the same thing. Additionally, for the EPR factor, when you look on the Primary Factors Tab, you will see numbers which represent difference from best (in percent), with 0.0% meaning: the best figure (i.e. of all a horse's PPs, or comparing all horses to each other, on the Analysis panel's Primary Tab). In addition to the same rank info you get from all the other 2nd call related factors, you also see the gap between the different lines. Example - a 2nd ranked EPR (or any other factor) with a gap of 0.5% is much closer to the best than a 2nd ranked EPR with a gap of 2.0. Hope that helps. Ted
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