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05-19-2009, 12:27 AM | #61 | |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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Quote:
__________________
Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." |
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06-12-2010, 03:38 AM | #62 | |
AlwNW2X
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 20
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Quote:
I have been trying to actually predict the pace based on how many early horses there are and what they are capable of. With no early horses why wouldn't you factor in BL and adust the paceline accordingly? How is choosing a paceline that a horse not in contention today created predicting todays race fractions? |
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06-12-2010, 02:54 PM | #63 | |
Grade 1 Aspiree
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
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Quote:
For those who have the book pages 42-51. He throws out statistical data from his own studies to support the effectiveness of the five furlong workout in order to qualify a laid off horse. His main point is, the horse can be considereded to be a contender for workouts of five furlongs or longer that occur within the past 14 days, no matter what the time may be and no matter how long the horse may have been away from the race. I have been using this in my handicapping effectively and I can post many races in my archives to demonstarte this. In fact this is the only effective tool that I know of that can qualify laid off horses. Below is an example of a horse that won and paid $16. Notice that there were 2 five furlong workous within 14 days. Many of these laid-off horses place and show hence I always check out these type of horses as part of my handicapping process. Ernie |
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06-12-2010, 04:24 PM | #64 | |
Administrator
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,643
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Quote:
I will definitely see whats what with this "angle"! Again many thanks for sharing! RichieP |
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06-12-2010, 05:01 PM | #65 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Lrh
Ernie
Good points about the 5f workouts Your $16 winner is a good example Also in the book HWYHRT on page 51 Wm Scott talks about the 5F when looking at Young lightly raced horses and how horses with slow 5F works are not showing any life and can be tossed from win contention things to watch 1. the 5 furlong must be within 7 days = check 2. must be a bullet work this won is not a bullet because it was 10th out of 34 but the time was under 1.00 so that qaulifice as FAST = Check 3. The workout 13 days ago was 3/10 and less than 14 days = check Last edited by Bill V.; 06-12-2010 at 05:06 PM. |
06-12-2010, 05:30 PM | #66 | |
Grade 1 Aspiree
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
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Quote:
effort to consider this situation and other situations that he presents in the book such as the "Big Win" meaning 3 lengths or more. With reference to point 1 above the 5 furlong workout must be within 14 days. Refer to page 51 for the summary. You may be referring to the "The Potency of the Seven-Day Horse". Ernie |
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