Pace lines

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by lbj

Bill,
would you mind posting the Primary Line Score for #1 at MNR race 5.
You had the win I had the Ex
Txs

Here you go Pino
I was thinking of putting in a exacta with the 3
Good call Fast Sprinter that does not fade going long
here is the Primary screen

GS
Bill

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by lbj

FTL,

Imo, a second rating that would quantify the Pace-Class abilities of the horse should be used to complement the validity of the best of the last 3 line.

Looking at an older line to "confirm" the more recent line is a good idea where possible.

Question: if the older line DOES confirm the more recent line, should not the more recent line be used?

[gl45]

FTL,
Imo, current form and pace-class abilities are two different attributes. In same cases the pace-class abilities can be measured in the last 2 or 3 races, if the horse doesn't show anything deeper in his chart, but in most case the horse has a line deep in his chart that will show his true pace class abilities. I capped the same race that Bill V. posted. MNR race #5

Horse #1 is a P/S
Line 1 is the line that show current form, faster time, great move positionally and lengths wise to the stretch.
Line 2 and 3 show different running style in a very slow races. I think the horse won race 2 by default.
What pace line (Pace-Class abilities) in my handicapping would complement his current form?
I chose line 10, shaved 6 second from the final time.

Race final times: 24.3 48.3 1.14.1 1.41.3 (today's race)
Horse last race: 48.0 1.14.0 1.41.3 ( current form)
Horse 10th. race: 48.2 1.13.3 1.40.3 (Pace-Class)

Horse positions: 5 3 1 1 (today's race)
Last race: 6 5 3 3
Line 10: 6 4 2 2

I don't believe in data manipulation, I like to stay with the basic raw POR.
No other horse can run the above lines, #6 maybe, we cam make a case for the sprinters #3 and #4.

[alydar_ David]

(posted on HSH forum by Dave Schwartz on June 22, 2002)

1. Prefer the tighest finish at a similar distance and surface as today. If there is a race within 1 length, use it, no matter how old it may be.

2. If there is not a race that fits #1, then take the best 2 races and average them.

Theory: I want to know how good the horse is when he is fully extended at the wire. If he was beaten 1/2 length he was probably all out. If he was any better he'd have won.

Note that this does not address form. It must be addressed elsewhere.

In other words:

1. Search for all races within 1 length at finish.

2. elim races at wrong surface or distance

3. Use most recent race.

If no such paceline exists, I then broaden search to use finishes within 8 lengths and select the two closest pacelines.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by lbj

FTL,
Imo, current form and pace-class abilities are two different attributes. In same cases the pace-class abilities can be measured in the last 2 or 3 races, if the horse doesn't show anything deeper in his chart, but in most case the horse has a line deep in his chart that will show his true pace class abilities. I capped the same race that Bill V. posted. MNR race #5

Horse #1 is a P/S
Line 1 is the line that show current form, faster time, great move positionally and lengths wise to the stretch.
Line 2 and 3 show different running style in a very slow races. I think the horse won race 2 by default.
What pace line (Pace-Class abilities) in my handicapping would complement his current form?
I chose line 10, shaved 6 second from the final time.

Race final times: 24.3 48.3 1.14.1 1.41.3 (today's race)
Horse last race: 48.0 1.14.0 1.41.3 ( current form)
Horse 10th. race: 48.2 1.13.3 1.40.3 (Pace-Class)

Horse positions: 5 3 1 1 (today's race)
Last race: 6 5 3 3
Line 10: 6 4 2 2

I don't believe in data manipulation, I like to stay with the basic raw POR.
No other horse can run the above lines, #6 maybe, we cam make a case for the sprinters #3 and #4.

lbj,

Thank you for that explanation.

[alydar_ David]

(posted here by Baffalator on October 21, 2007)

Line Selection Rules or Guidelines

In an effort to further the discussion, I advance the following theory. The track morning line has gone a long way towards ranking the contenders for you. If you break this down into three categories:

A) Less than 6-1
B) 6-1 to 11-1
C) 12-1 or greater

Then take the "best of the last three comparable" which includes the following three criteria:

X) Recency i.e 70 days (I say three months, doesn't have to be exactly 90 days)
Y) Distance ( exact or +/- .5 furlongs)
Z) Track ( Same track or Same curcuit)

Now (C) would require X,Y,and Z.
Now (B) would require any two of X,Y,Z
Now (A) would require one of X or Y

If you can't select a line for three or more horses you strike out and simply PASS the race.

[Tim Y]

HINT: use as many pacelines as you can to find the most varied pressures that a horse was able to fend off. PERIOD.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by alydar_David

(posted here by Baffalator on October 21, 2007)

Line Selection Rules or Guidelines

In an effort to further the discussion, I advance the following theory. The track morning line has gone a long way towards ranking the contenders for you. If you break this down into three categories:

A) Less than 6-1
B) 6-1 to 11-1
C) 12-1 or greater

Then take the "best of the last three comparable" which includes the following three criteria:

X) Recency i.e 70 days (I say three months, doesn't have to be exactly 90 days)
Y) Distance ( exact or +/- .5 furlongs)
Z) Track ( Same track or Same curcuit)

Now (C) would require X,Y,and Z.
Now (B) would require any two of X,Y,Z
Now (A) would require one of X or Y

If you can't select a line for three or more horses you strike out and simply PASS the race.

These guidelines seem VERY REASONABLE to me.
I would take caution with horses who have a morning line of 15-1, 20-1 and greater than 20-1.
In the last 3 years, from more than 120,000 races, the following are the win percentages for these moring lines.

15-1 = 2.6%
20-1 = 1.65%
>20-1 = .15%

It is amazing how many very large prices can be had with morning lines 10-1 or 12-1 and they win at much better rates.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

HINT: use as many pacelines as you can to find the most varied pressures that a horse was able to fend off. PERIOD.

Your use of the word “PERIOD” suggests that your “hint” is the definitive, absolute and end all without further discussion on the topic. We all know this is not the case. It’s nice that you are offering an “opinion” and I’m sure we are all appreciative. It is a well thought out opinion and may have much merit, but without large numbers to support it, it remains what it is, an opinion.

I’m sure we can all imagine the huge undertaking it would be to analyze every pace line selection method that could be imagined and compare one against the other over a VERY LARGE number of races in order to reach a conclusion as to which is the best.

The post by “alydar DAVID”, who was kind enough to share the original post by “Bafalator”, was a well thought out approach to pace line selection. It is not an “action” set of guidelines. That is to say, he attempts to use horses with a recent race, a line selection from a race that is close to today’s distance/surface, from the same track or circuit and all while being the “the best of last three”, as the methodology guidelines suggest. If this cannot be found for at least three horses, then pass the race. With all the tracks we have to play, be it via the internet or at your favorite track or other betting outlet, there are many opportunities without “forcing” a race.

[Judicious Player]

I do not blindly look for a horse's best race when choosing a pace line.

Before I pick a pace line, I try to determine today's pace, based on the horses entered in the race. Then, I pick a paceline that is as close as possible to TODAY's projected pace, which, may or may not be, the horses's best race.

In other words, how will the horse fare against today's projected pace?