new pace

[Dave Schwartz]

Ted,

RDSS shows the tote board within the software?

If so, can you not get it to show the exacta payouts as well?

Dave

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Ted,

RDSS shows the tote board within the software?

If so, can you not get it to show the exacta payouts as well?

Dave

Indeed it does. If I get the Exacta grid parser finished in time, it will be in RDSS 2.0 in September. Otherwise, the Exacta grid will be in 2.1 (December?). My plan has always been to show the real-time $net or ROI based on how many combinations you are betting in a given pool (e.g. multiple win bets, WP bets, Exacta combo bets: wheels, boxes). And upload to ADWs which provide a file upload queue.



It won't exactly be free, though. Just very reasonable priced, for the functionality (I mean, it's included for whatever RDSS costs, not extra).

Just depends on work schedule (and what goes wrong ...)

Ted

[Dave Schwartz]

We are doing the same thing. Currently, the HSH interfaces directly with the At the Races Pro software. Good software, but a bit of a resource hog.

I am building my own as well. Actually contracted it out, then I will integrate it. Supposedly, the code will be in my hands this week.

[Dorianmode]

Ted, I am VERY new to NewPace, as you know, but the screen reminds me of a question I meant to throw out. Does anyone know if there has ever been a study done of the standard deviations from TE, in the RDSS readouts for the Win and/or Place horse in all, or various combinations of, for example, the best three recent, the last three at this distance, etc., etc ? It sort of reminds me of the range of Speed Ratings Range in NewPace. Just a thought.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Dorianmode

Ted, I am VERY new to NewPace, as you know, but the screen reminds me of a question I meant to throw out. Does anyone know if there has ever been a study done of the standard deviations from TE, in the RDSS readouts for the Win and/or Place horse in all, or various combinations of, for example, the best three recent, the last three at this distance, etc., etc ? It sort of reminds me of the range of Speed Ratings Range in NewPace. Just a thought.

Dorianmode,

I don't know of such specific statistical studies. However, though it is no substitute for such a study, I would offer that nearly 15 years of similarly adjusted Total Energy numbers, employed as part of the process of paceline selection (i.e. in best of last 3 comparable) then contender winnowing, have resulted in a consistently valid basis for wager decision making. This process can be automated according to user rules. It is the large degree of automation which is attractive in NewPace (though the current version does not automate tie breaking, and does not include the several updated ideas in the NewPace Update video). One again, the brain is thankfully not rendered redundant ...

FYI, we did try using Total Energy as part of RDSS' NewPace process (as an alternate to TrackMaster Speed Ratings or the internal Adjusted Speed Ratings). We found TE was rather worse than those 2 ratings, possibly only because is is not based solely on Final Time and more pacelines will thus be missing TE numbers due to missing internal fractions (i.e. foreign races, fog, other), which problem does not affect ratings based only on Final Time.

Ted

[Dorianmode]

If the statistical, mathematical model for the "90 % of the horse's behavior" is refected in the range of the Speed Ratings, as described in the NewPace video is correct, (I am working on that, and assume it is), then there are many ways NewPace can be used to our advantge to help, and validate choices, and contenders. I am yet to actually try the wagering system as Mr. Schwartz recommends, but just having the model, has already helped me a lot to stay away from a horse that obviously can't run in the necessary, (speed) range, that I was already looking at. Interesting so far.

[Dave Schwartz]

Ted and I had a conversation about this at Saratoga (I believe). We both agree that this concept could be applied to just about anything - speed ratings, energy ratings, whatever.

There is a small hitch in this approach because it assumes that the 10th race back is just as likely to be run today as the last race. This is, of course, not true. Horses are slightly more likely to run back to a more recent race than an older one.

I am currently working on a modeling process that I hope will do a better job of addressing this.