Paceline Selection

[shoeless]

Mike

Thank you very much for sharing the study you did.

As a person who is not good with numbers what is your
conclusion with this.

Jeff

[shoeless]

Dan, LT1, and Pianoman


Thanks for your replies, I for one like the story's you guys have
of the old days, I wasn't around at that time.

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by pianoman

Hello Jeff & Dan and to others. I think the Pace Line manual and also Pizzolla LASST are good places to start. Yes, Pizzolla took his methods from Sartin. No problem as if you read the foreword he wrote it. If you read a couple of pages later, Sartin stressed intuition. The manual and tapes were for those of us where the paceline(s) didn’t jump off the page.

Hey Eric

I agree with you and "intuition". I think that is what LT1 is saying as well. Malcolm Gladwell wrote a book called "Blink" where he talks about first impressions and snap judgments. I think his conclusion seems to be that if you have a ton of experience and knowledge, then you should trust your first instinct or gut impression. He used the fake statue at the Getty museum as an example, where lots of art history people just said it is wrong. Their 30 and 40 and sometimes 50 years of experience did not tell them what was wrong, but they just "knew" it was wrong.

I think people who handicap for decades, get that same level of instinct on what line is the correct or most telling to use. I don't have that for pacelines, but I do have it for horses at times, where I look at the history of the horse and I am just like, this isn't right, this horse is dangerous in spite of low numbers and low rankings. Obviously, you want to see recent ability at this track, surface and distance, but sometimes the big odds are when you do not.

I don't do a lot of summer racing. I am playing around with Saratoga right now, but not having a lot of success. Normally I avoid summer racing because there are too many tracks running and therefore smaller fields and smaller mutuels and since I am a longshot player, that hurts my bottom line. Also, my health tends to be a lot worse during the summer due to the heat. Hopefully when it cools a bit, we can meet up at Atlantis if you are still okay with that. Maybe for Keeneland or early fall racing. Glad to see you following the topic, hope you are doing well.

[MJS6916]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Mike

Thank you very much for sharing the study you did.

As a person who is not good with numbers what is your
conclusion with this.

Jeff

Jeff,

I'll just stick to BL/BL for this answer.

For the higher BL/BL scores, I would look for a vulnerable
first or second public betting choice to exploit.

Let's say even if the post time favorite is #1 BL/BL
if there are more than 1 other runners within 1 point of
him/her, I'd be interested in seeing if there's another
significant point which can be made against that top BL/BL /
post time favorite which says this one might be a weaker prospect
than they look to the public.

For longshots, say 8/1 or higher I would prefer
their scores be within 1 point under the 50% column
or better.

From memory it seems many of those longshots who win or complete
exactas meet that standard, but I can't say I did a study on that.

Hope that helps.

Mike

[shoeless]

Thanks, Mike, for your reply it helps

Dan nice reply as well


Jeff

[shoeless]

It's nice to see a thread where everyone gets along with each
other and making good posts

Jeff

[pianoman]

I should have mentioned the Match Up manual as well. Bradshaw in the manual was much more strict than Sartin in what constitutes a + race. He stated the horse had to finish 1st or 2nd or within 2 3/4 lengths. Since I've retired, I now have time to review my work. I've come to the conclusion that Trackmaster pp's don't work for myself. Like what Dan stated about the Greek statue in Blink, I've always had a nagging feeling something was not right. The DRF and Trackmaster are like apples and oranges. No use in attempting to make them compatible. What may work for RDDS and the other Sartin based software programs is not the same for the DOS programs. Yes, I know there is an export function in RDDS but without viewing the DRF to see what actually is the best of last three it doesn't usually selecting that paceline. Since I live in Reno I get free pp's. I'm using Thoromation 2A and I'm feeling much more comfortable in my results. I'm receiving the results Sartin promised - 70% win wager two horses with Thoromation. Like what Lt1 ends his posts with - Trust but verify,

[shoeless]

Pianoman


Great to hear that you're getting good results with Thoromation and
and posting about the Match-UP manual.

Jeff

[shoeless]

Ray,

I have not heard from you hope that you and your wife
are doing ok.

Jeff

[raceman5]

Originally Posted by pianoman

I should have mentioned the Match Up manual as well. Bradshaw in the manual was much more strict than Sartin in what constitutes a + race. He stated the horse had to finish 1st or 2nd or within 2 3/4 lengths. Since I've retired, I now have time to review my work. I've come to the conclusion that Trackmaster pp's don't work for myself. Like what Dan stated about the Greek statue in Blink, I've always had a nagging feeling something was not right. The DRF and Trackmaster are like apples and oranges. No use in attempting to make them compatible. What may work for RDDS and the other Sartin based software programs is not the same for the DOS programs. Yes, I know there is an export function in RDDS but without viewing the DRF to see what actually is the best of last three it doesn't usually selecting that paceline. Since I live in Reno I get free pp's. I'm using Thoromation 2A and I'm feeling much more comfortable in my results. I'm receiving the results Sartin promised - 70% win wager two horses with Thoromation. Like what Lt1 ends his posts with - Trust but verify,

So when you use the DRF to pick your pacelines how do u go about choosing your pacelines