How best to match just using raw/original times and the entire past performances?

[RichieP]

** There have been 3-4 posts asking "what is a competitive finish". **

The honest answer is I can't tell you what it is. Neither can Jim(spoke with him extensively this morning). By working LOTS of races we develop our own INDIVIDUAL answer to this question. There is no clear cut "rule".

There IS right or wrong for us INDIVIDUALLY ok? Through practice and making incorrect evaluations we learn and adapt to what really works when looking at races BEFORE they run.

We are ALL going to make wrong calls.ALL of us.We can NOT learn if we do not make wrong choices. When we do our mind remembers and after a while will signal us (the little voice in our head man) when the situation arises again. Hopefully we are at peace working races quietly so we can HEAR it and then ACT on it.

If we are NOT working quietly we will not be "warned" and will continue to make the same mistake over and over and over again. I ****ed up yesterday on a bonehead call on a horse that was totally wrong. There was a bit of chaos here and I ****ed up a race BIG time. Wound up going off the horse,bet someone else and watched the original horse win at an unreal price. I mean UNREAL price.

It was all on ME not some "rule' I was following. I lost because I made a bad bad call/eval. I must take responsibility for SELF.

This is also Jim's Matchup.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by lsosa54

Question for Rich: Can you give your thoughts as to using PL1 for the 8 with the obviously much faster pace than using the 2nd back, which to me is a better looking "power move"? I suppose PL1 would still be considered "competitive" even though he lost some lengths and positions from 1st call to final call where as in PL2, he gained lengths and position from the first call to final call, obviously with a much slower pace? Thanks. Lou.

Lou
FORGET the final call when matching horses.

The final call is a representation of what happened early on in the race. FOCUS your matching on the 1st call, 2nd call,stretch call.

Stay away from slow paced races. From them come slow ass horses. Kiss of death to the Hat.

Fast pace of races - Fast horses - Find These Lou ok? LOOK for them.

Good question man

[simon]

Rich Thank you. This is what I see

ok add the last line on the 8 to what you have shown in the "code box".

 #1 Four   Line 5 6.5 22.8 46.3 113.1 120.2   2 2 3 3 
         #8 Saint   Line 1 5.5 22.3 45.1  58.9 105.5    2 2 4 4 
         #8 Saint   Line 3 7.0 22.6 46.0 112.5 126.3   1 1 3 4
        #10 Little   Line 2 6.0 23.1 46.7  59.1 112.2    5 2 3 3

2) Was the horse competitive in the fast paced race?
If you feel he was then THAT is your fastest sprinter.
Keep him and throw ALL other sprinters out of the race.
If you feel he was NOT competitive look to the next fastest sprinter and repeat process.

Yes Rich I do think the 8 was competitive in in the fast pace in line 1
22.3 45.1 and line 3 22.6 46.0
so I would say the 8 was the fast sprinter

Once we have identified the fastest sprinter
(remember now this is a route race with sprinters entered)
we will then move to the next step ok?

** Excellent Ragin! So now you have the 8 as the top sprinter.Throw all the other sprinters out now. Next step is coming! -RichieP **

[mufasa]

Originally Posted by RichieP

1) Look at who ran against fastest pace of race (1c-2c-sc). Identify the horse first in your mind ok? Then:

2) Was the horse competitive in the fast paced race? If you feel he was then THAT is your fastest sprinter. Keep him and throw ALL other sprinters out of the race. If you feel he was NOT competitive look to the next fastest sprinter and repeat process.

Once we have identified the fastest sprinter (remember now this is a route race with sprinters entered) we will then move to the next step ok?

Richie

OK Rich I should have listed better when you had said initially that you were taught to consider as to stretch outs: first measuring sprinters against sprinters. This was followed now by “keep the fastest sprinter and throw out the rest.” Now you measure I gather the routers as to their best times at the route distances.

These are the only contenders that I have with a route race to compare:
#1 48.2 - 1.14.1 3 3 3 3
#3 46.2 - 1.13. 4 3 2 2
#7 48.0 - 1.14.3 2 2 2 2
As to these particular routers it would be a win choice on the #3. I believe the #3 horse is in good condition and shows in its third race back, a grass race, that it could run faster against “today’s projected pace of 46 – 1.12.2.” The # 1 and #7 horses show nothing in their pp’s coming close to running well against a projected half of 1.12.2. In fact the #3’s chosen PL is a power-move pace line that is faster by 2 seconds at the first call and at least one second at the half. So now I have to reconsider my 2 win choices, since I still like the #8 horse, and change it from what I first started thinking when I had kept all of the sprinters in the race to now the #8 and the #3 horses for win considerations.

Robert

[MIKE1121]

This looks like a great web site to share ideas and learn new things involving horse racing handicapping. I decided to join your group becouse I want to take my game to a higher level. Tired of just breaking even ( 2007 so far down $ 80 , 2006 lost $50, 2005 won $ 75) I play every weekend. I always have this feeling that I am about to bust out, then finding myself back to even kind of like a dream that I am just running in place , not getting anywhere.


Reading the posts in this section I have noticed that different people will give different running styles to the same horse. This is one area that I have been confused about, What running style should a horse be assigned when he has shown the ability to run and win running as both an early, Presser and sustain. Do you assign the most recent ? the most often or like jim crammer would do the furthest out.


Regarding what is a competitive race, my thought would be that a horse is running competitive when he is running within his running style, if he is an early horse a competitive race would be if he ran within a length for both the first 2 calls even if he falls apart in the stretch. A Presser runs a competitive race as long as he runs within a couple of lengths for most of the race, Sustain horses( example 8 or more beaten lengths at first call) for me I need to see them make a move in the stretch to be competive ( gain position and lengths) other wise they are just tagging along.

Mike.

*** Welcome Mike! Down here in Matchup country we will evolve into a very simple total of 2 running styles. Early - A horse who wins going wire to wire. Other than early - ALL other horses. Right now we are in the beginners learning phases so styles such as Early-early press-press-sustained are being used. Feel free to download Jim's 5 step approach to the matchup which you will find here in this forum ok? It will give you a bit of an idea of what we do in THIS forum. Again welcome! - RichieP ***

[RichieP]

Back to the race at hand. We want to evaluate the sprinters here first. They are
the 2,4,6,8,9,10,11.

Of these only 2 horses are even worth a glance as the rest are ridiculously slow. Those 2 being the 8 and 10.

Here is a screen shot of the Power lines on the 2 horses. The 8 kills off the 10 so he is out.

The 8 remains as the fastest sprinter in this field.

SCRATCH the 2,4,6,9,10,11 from further consideration for the WIN. This is what we do. Throw horses out in bunches.

[RichieP]

Now we shine the light on the routers and repeat the process. Here are the power lines of the routers. Who is the fastest? Then check the pp's on him and determine if he is still a horse able to compete or has he changed his style to that of a pig.

Our final step will be to match the winner of this screen shot (fastest router) against the #8 (fastest sprinter) to get our final selection. Step by step process which throws horses out in bunches.

[sdahl]

I would say the #3 is the fastest router. I am looking forward to see how you compare the sprinter and the router.

Stan

[MIKE1121]

Originally Posted by RichieP

Lou
FORGET the final call when matching horses.

The final call is a representation of what happened early on in the race. FOCUS your matching on the 1st call, 2nd call,stretch call.

Stay away from slow paced races. From them come slow ass horses. Kiss of death to the Hat.

Fast pace of races - Fast horses - Find These Lou ok? LOOK for them.

Good question man

Richie, When looking at Fast Pace races do you place any limits on how many beaten lenghts a horse has to be within the pace of this race in order to give him credit for this race? If a horse is beaten like 10 lenghts for the first 2 calls would you still credit him with this paceline i.e he is just a follower of fast horses ?.

Mike.

[RichieP]

Originally Posted by MIKE1121

Richie, When looking at Fast Pace races do you place any limits on how many beaten lengths a horse has to be within the pace of this race in order to give him credit for this race? If a horse is beaten like 10 lengths for the first 2 calls would you still credit him with this pace line i.e he is just a follower of fast horses ?.

Mike.

Mike
It's a feel thing man. Comes from looking at lots of races the same way over and over. With focused practice we will get most right but still miss a few no matter what we do.

Is there a specific horse here you were talking about?

Richie