horses going up in class - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 02-03-2015, 02:31 PM

Thanks guys for you inputs. I have noticed a few circumstances wherein horses from lower classifications can and do prevail at higher class levels, but what I was really looking for was statistical information bases solely on the conditions of the race.

Since I play mostly claiming races and/or allowances races the kind of info I was hoping to find was something in the order of "low level claimers win on the class rise __% of the time in sprints and __% of the time in routes."

If an apparent class riser has a pace advantage, whether large or small, I want to know the historical Win % number because it may influence whether or not I bet two horses to win or place a saver bet on the next best horse who IS NOT rising in class.

It really is an issue after handicapping, more on the bet or no bet side of the equation.

Thanks,

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02-03-2015, 02:31 PM	#4
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,499	Thanks guys for you inputs. I have noticed a few circumstances wherein horses from lower classifications can and do prevail at higher class levels, but what I was really looking for was statistical information bases solely on the conditions of the race. Since I play mostly claiming races and/or allowances races the kind of info I was hoping to find was something in the order of "low level claimers win on the class rise __% of the time in sprints and __% of the time in routes." If an apparent class riser has a pace advantage, whether large or small, I want to know the historical Win % number because it may influence whether or not I bet two horses to win or place a saver bet on the next best horse who IS NOT rising in class. It really is an issue after handicapping, more on the bet or no bet side of the equation. Thanks,