last 4 lines

[glue4659]

here is what I have been looking at Bill. WHO is the fool now? lol I cannot find the file on my computer to attach?

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by glue4659

here is what I have been looking at Bill. WHO is the fool now? lol I cannot find the file on my computer to attach?

No problem

Which program did you use to make the screen shot/attachment ?

Bill
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[glue4659]

trying to use SNAG IT.........WITH NOT MUCH SUCCESS?

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by glue4659

trying to use SNAG IT.........WITH NOT MUCH SUCCESS?

There are a bunch of snag it videos on you tube

http://www.youtube.com/results?searc...Snag+it&page=2

Bill

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[glue4659]

Ty Bill. I am going to have to work on this a while as I thought I had go to meeting on here, but I do NOT!

[Mark]

Ah, the question of pacelines. Which one do I use? Which one best predicts how this horse will run today? The subject of many arguments and much conjecture.
Bill V. has defined a method of labeling the perceived quality of a horse's effort with the plus, circle or plus within a circle method. This method was published in a Follow Up in the late 1980's I believe and it was concieved by Doc Sartin in response to members inability to adequately determine the current form of a runner. It immediately informs the practiciner how and when a runner has performed well in the races in his past performances, which is a very important thing to know.

A plus race gives you real insight into the horses capabilities. Depending where the line is in the past performances of the horse you can draw a number of conclusions from it:
1. The distance and surface of the race indicates that the horse can give a good effort at that distance and surface.
2. You can note the general class level at which the horse performed which allows you to compare that with today's.
3. You can see how the horse ran his race. What running style produced this performance.
4. What were the early fractions against which this horse performed well against.

Similarly, a circle effort by the horse can also tell you a great deal about the horse. It can tell you all the things about the horse's effort that produced a poor performance.

A plus within a circle is an effort probably most predictive of a horses potential improvement or the necessity for a class drop. If you have horses returning from a significant layoff recently this is an indication that the horse is acquiring the conditioning it needs to become competitive at this level, distance and surface. It might indicate that the horse is injured or has become sour and may need time away from the races. Or it may just represent an effort where the horse for any number of reasons did not extend himself.

So with one simple, quick procedure you now have a wealth of information about each horse in the race. Now it is up to you to handicap the race. The work begins.

The most important race in a horse's past performances is its last race. It is the only automatic paceline selection I use. I bring the horses up when I open a race and select last line. If you have taken the time to label the horses' races =, 0 or (+), then you know immediately what type of effort each horse gave in his last race. If you determine the Fulcrum pace as Bill does or project the first and second call ala Jim Bradshaw you now have a basis on which to make educated decisions about the likelihood of each horses'
chances today.

A + last race for a runner at or near the Fulcrum or projected pace will indicate a horse that most likely will be heavily bet. If that race is at today's distance and surface and his adjusted final time is best in the field you are probably looking at the post time favorite.

A (0) last race for a runner at or near the Fulcrum or projected pace, distance and surface is probably a mid-odds horse that has a potential to upset, given that the horse has recent layoffs or is shipping in or has been running at different distances and surfaces.

A 0 last race requires that you must find a legitimate excuse for the horse to consider him as a potential wager. Chasing this kind of runners can be hard on the bankroll.

I think we all want to bet horses whose past performances indicate that the horse is in condition, sound and has the necessary capability to win the race. Using the automatic paceline selection routines other than the last line often will not tell you what you need to know about the horse's chances today. They tell you what the horse could do at some time in the past, possibly at different distances, surfaces and class levels. If you are fortunate and that line or lines are predictive and you get a great price, then that is as much by good fortune than by comprehensive handicapping.

In the end what most handicapping programs do is determine who has run the fastest given the paceline you select for them. Pace of the Race and horses' beaten lengths positions at the various points of call are calculated to indicate which horse has covered the distance of today's race the fastest. So the selection of a predictive paceline for today's
race is the critical piece to solving this puzzle. Selecting a automated paceline route that tells you the best race the horse has ever run by some esoteric factor will produce the winner on occasion but generally not often enough to make a profit.

[Bill V.]

A + last race for a runner at or near the Fulcrum or projected pace will indicate a horse that most likely will be heavily bet. If that race is at today's distance and surface and his adjusted final time is best in the field you are probably looking at the post time favorite.

A (0) last race for a runner at or near the Fulcrum or projected pace, distance and surface is probably a mid-odds horse that has a potential to upset, given that the horse has recent layoffs or is shipping in or has been running at different distances and surfaces.

A 0 last race requires that you must find a legitimate excuse for the horse to consider him as a potential wager. Chasing this kind of runners can be hard on the bankroll.

Win prices in + (0) and 0 race

Here are some facts

In my last 205 mile races for 3 + male at Parx
the winner of the race had a + line in its last line or 2nd line back providing the last line was excusable as per the pace line manual.
Here are some statistics about those races.

in 205 races the winner's had an average mutual of $10.52.
The winner had a + or a (+) pace line as described above 125 times with an average mutual of $9.75
In the remaining 80 race were the winner had
a 0 race the average mutual was $11.82

Now the same criteria but the + or (+) line was within 90 days of today's race

There were 135 races that the winner had a + or a (+) in a race within 90 days the average mutual was $9.90

In the remaining 60 race with out a + or (+)
the average mutual was $11.45
These 60 race include horse who had a + pace line
within 90 day but had not run at a comparable distance or surface. Thinks like sprinters stretching out or turf only pace lines are included

The win prices are not that different considering the risk

Thanks
merry Christmas

Bill
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[Bill V.]

I forgot to mention

Horse's like Snake Pit are included in the stats
Now Snake Pit has no + or (+) races within the last 90 days
at a comparable distance or surface and its been in the barn often.
It only has 1 race within 90 days.
Anyway the percentage of horses who win with a + or (+) pace line is greater
than what I posted. because of layoff being a factor

Snake Pit won and paid $6.00

I am working on tabulating the stats for the females