Contenders

[Bill V.]

Here are my lines and comments about race 2 from DMR
The Rest

Horse 2 I used line 2
I could have used line 1 as a (+) but I figured since the rested the horse for 6 weeks
after so success it might have been tired in line 1

Horse 3 I suppose I could have gone back to line 4 ( sorry )

Horse 4 Same deal as horse 2 A good race then a dud against ALW
and then a 5 week rest I figure a MC 50 winner to be eventually
around a CL 25,000 winner today is CL32,000

Horse 5 Line 1 a plus pace line no reason to not use it

Horse 6 Nothing to go by since the MC win was down the hill at SA

Horse 7 and 8 we already know about

[Bill V.]

5-6

[Latekick]

Bill i have a question. In order to go back further than the last line, do you DEMAND the horses last line is a plus or a plus within a circle?
Or do you freely go back 2 to 3 lines even if the last line is not a plus or plus with a cicle?
Lets say the horses best of last 3 is 3 back on same surface and distance. but say the horse ran a zero last race, do you STILL go 3 back or what do you do with the horse?

[Because I Can Jim]

Originally Posted by Latekick

Do you have any input or screenshots on how the #1 just won the 5th race..
Another horse that i found impossible to get

Latekick,

Don't take me wrong. I am not beating you up, picking on you or anything like that.

It is just that in my quotes from you, I see myself

Absolutely anyone who has spent time handicapping has experienced what you are going through.

You handicap a race beforehand. You miss the race. You look at it to see what went wrong in your analysis. Ang guess what? You don't find anything. No matter how hard you look or try to rationalize, you can't find anything.

That is just racing. You won't "get it" sometimes.

There is some debate over whether or not to go back over a race. Jimmy Bradshaw started out going back and looking back but after a period of time stopped looking back at races that he handicapped feeling that it messed up his thinking. I can see his point. When you look at a race and just don't know how a horse could have won that race you begin to rationalize.... very dangerous to your game.

On the otherhand, a great majority of people do go back and they can see what jumps out at them for what they could have done. This is all well and good as long as you can apply that experience when necessary and it is based on correct theory. Unfortunately, most people cannot or do not.

Playing poker is the same way. The idea is to learn the theory and apply the theory because one isolated instant does not make what you did right or wrong. You can make a bad decision and win. You can make a good decision and lose - in any one hand. I think this also applies to handicapping. While you can look at a race, what matters is applying the correct theory over many races and not being critical over one isolated race.

Handicapping is not about being correct or right all of the time. It is about making good decisions. Once the gate opens, you have no control over the event, the horses do. If you made good decisions beforehand and a horse comes from out of nowhere, that is just racing. You made the correct decisions whether you get to the horse or not.

Again, latekick, I am not being critical of you so please do not take what I write the wrong way. My writing is almost like therapy for me because these are issues I struggle with too. Take it for what it is. If it makes sense, use it. If you think I'm full of it, that is fine too. Just don't think it is a personal attack on you or anyone else.

Jim

[Latekick]

Jim i am glad you posted this.
Everything you say in that post, i need to read twice a day from now on. When i lose a race, i sometimes see the horse as impossible, so what do i do ( sometimes) i cahnge my thinking and proccess in order to MAKE this horse look like it was a good thing. That can ruin a handicapper. Im steadiluy starting to learn that when im wrong, understand i was wrong in THAT race and the next race i do check every possible thing i can to make sure im making a SMART descion. As you said, i may make a smart descion and still lose, but over the long haul, smart descions pay more than lots of lucky wrong descions. Id rather be a good handicapper with a tad of luck, not a bad handicapper with luck that will lead me down the wrong handicapping path

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Latekick

Bill i have a question. In order to go back further than the last line, do you DEMAND the horses last line is a plus or a plus within a circle?
Or do you freely go back 2 to 3 lines even if the last line is not a plus or plus with a cicle?
Lets say the horses best of last 3 is 3 back on same surface and distance. but say the horse ran a zero last race, do you STILL go 3 back or what do you do with the horse?

I'm not really sure what you mean.

I can access any race on any card each day. If you can tell me the name of a horse and track and race # I gan look and explain why I use or don't use a pace line.
Also there are many post and some video's about making screen shots.
It would be great if you can make a screen shot of the PP that is giving you
a problem.

Some times I don't use the last line even if its a plus pace line
Verrazano in the Haskell yesterday is a good example.
Sometimes I will use a different paceline for reasons like distance, off track, competition level, field size!
Some times on the east coast this time of year races are taken off the turf and there are tons of scratches. You will see horses finishing 3rd but in a 4 horse field.

Bill

[Latekick]

Bill, I am not currenyly a user of RDSS, I would LOVE to download the program, but right now the 2.50 per card would not be easy on me being that I download so many cards and im still only on a limited wagering budget.
I was taught how to use the Bris pps as basically my RDSS just without as much readouts,. Lt1 (Tim) taught me how to basically come up with the readouts by using the bris pace figs.
I really am intereste on improving my paceline selection, and would love to get some of your insight. Ive been glued to this sight the past few days and im just about almost halfway through reading EVERY ONE OF Your post. You sat down with Doc and capped races andchose pacelines, with him guiding you, id love to get your help with these paceline problems I have and get some of your screenshots. Im hoping to get RDSS next year.

Bill I can send you some of my problem pacelines through snapshots in email, so if your not too busy, shoot me an email and I will begin with my questions and here what you have to say. Ill private message you my email

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Latekick

Bill, I am not currently a user of RDSS, I would LOVE to download the program, but right now the 2.50 per card would not be easy on me being that I download so many cards and im still only on a limited wagering budget.

Latekick,

Just for clarity, the RDSS PP files are $2.00 each, not $2.50 and if you buy 20 cards for $30 a month, that equals $1.50 each, then $1.25 each after the first 20.

cheers,

Ted

[Latekick]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Latekick,

Just for clarity, the RDSS PP files are $2.00 each, not $2.50 and if you buy 20 cards for $30 a month, that equals $1.50 each, then $1.25 each after the first 20.

cheers,

Ted

Thanks Ted. For $30 a month and than only 1.25 after that i think ill be okay.
I have watched all the videos on this site, more than once now. I love the way RichieP explains and teaches, i would like to see some more videos from him. IVe been emerced in the Sartin Method for over a year now but these past 6 months i have rally begun studying and doing everything i can to learn.
Im really considering purchasing RDSS, i love the colors, it helps my eye attach to what i need to be looking at, and all the great info on here day in and day out is alos great. Thanks for the prices Ted.

[Bill V.]

Hello Late Kick


From your email

Saratoga Race 1 July 29th.
I highlighted the line i used the question is Horse # 4 , COULD i have gone 2 back and used his best line even though it was a MC25k?

My thoughts
I would not have gone back to line 2. The race you are asking about is a
CL 30 non winners of two life. The last line is a plus + paceline against
winners. This is the line. The distance and track DEL are a slight issue, but going back over 289 days is a bigger question mark, and its only a MC 25 race. A good practice is to do what Doc says he did.. Stick a note on your computer monitor or screen that says "Is this line comparable to today's race, distance, surface or competition level." and ask this for each horse as you pick lines.
Its acceptable to use maiden wins in non winners of two lifetime races.
But its also a good rule of thumb to rate a maiden claimer at 1/2 of its maiden claiming win value. So I would expect horse 4 to be a 12.5 - 15,000 claimer down the road.

Here is the RDSS paceline screen for your horse




Here is the winner of the race
The winner shows two plus races against winners, Its last line was a plus race against winners at this same level farther down it shows a plus line in an allowance race, This is the horse you have to beat.
Its best if you use plus lines earned against winners in non winner of two
lifetime races.