Pattern recognition - Pace and Cap

lsosa54 · 01-26-2013, 12:01 PM

Not sure what being the #1 APV rank means here when it's solely based on one maiden win.

The horse was lightly raced and I would pay attention to the turf workout (stayed within 3 lengths of the leader to the 2nd call) and the early positioning shown at the route - 2nd by 1/2 length to the 2nd call in a field of 14. Even more impressive if he broke from an outside post (I couldn't seem to find post position). Pace numbers or fractional times are not so important in the "workouts within races".

Bill's comments about lack of early pace are another positive. Not sure of his works, but if he had shown a nice one over a dirt track, that would have been another sign for me.

The biggest risk to me here is the switch from poly to dirt. I would also want to evaluate the fav from AQU.

If the fav is vulnerable, I've got a lightly raced horse with both a turf tightener and a route tightener cutting back into a sprint where he's shown me good early positioning and also the ability to win his maiden race off the pace. Ability to handle dirt is still an unknown.

I probably wouldn't get interested until about 10-1 but 27.5 - 1? Sounds like a good risk return ratio but you will still lose more of these than you win.

I have found that that morning lines of 5-1, 6-1, and 8-1 give me the best risk-reward opportunities when I can identify vulnerabilities in the fav. If I think I have a vulnerable 2nd fav as well, the better.

I am assuming the ml maker is competent. Since SoCal is is my home track, I've had no long term issues. I'm sure most major circuits are similar.

The caveat to this thread is that it's always easier AFTER the fact.

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01-26-2013, 12:01 PM	#4
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	Not sure what being the #1 APV rank means here when it's solely based on one maiden win. The horse was lightly raced and I would pay attention to the turf workout (stayed within 3 lengths of the leader to the 2nd call) and the early positioning shown at the route - 2nd by 1/2 length to the 2nd call in a field of 14. Even more impressive if he broke from an outside post (I couldn't seem to find post position). Pace numbers or fractional times are not so important in the "workouts within races". Bill's comments about lack of early pace are another positive. Not sure of his works, but if he had shown a nice one over a dirt track, that would have been another sign for me. The biggest risk to me here is the switch from poly to dirt. I would also want to evaluate the fav from AQU. If the fav is vulnerable, I've got a lightly raced horse with both a turf tightener and a route tightener cutting back into a sprint where he's shown me good early positioning and also the ability to win his maiden race off the pace. Ability to handle dirt is still an unknown. I probably wouldn't get interested until about 10-1 but 27.5 - 1? Sounds like a good risk return ratio but you will still lose more of these than you win. I have found that that morning lines of 5-1, 6-1, and 8-1 give me the best risk-reward opportunities when I can identify vulnerabilities in the fav. If I think I have a vulnerable 2nd fav as well, the better. I am assuming the ml maker is competent. Since SoCal is is my home track, I've had no long term issues. I'm sure most major circuits are similar. The caveat to this thread is that it's always easier AFTER the fact.