Make Money With Early

[DaveEdwards]

Hi Bill,

Sorry if I've typed it out wrong, I know you guys in the USA swap the months & days around to us.

What I meant was the meeting on the 10th of November & it was race 8, sorry for the confusion there. Hopefully as per your posting on the bottom of page one on this thread!

[Bill V.]

Dave now everything is much more clear
and Ted's comments support the difference

since I used a line for horse 5 that had over 7.5 BL the
final BL in the 3rd segment is not as dramatic in Val mode as it is in the
default setting
Valmode 4.8



Default
BL 10.8

[DaveEdwards]

Brilliant work Bill.

Shows a clear difference between the two default selections. Still slightly confused as to how I had over 16L to your 10.8, but I don't want to labour the point, unless there is an easy answer Ted?

Thanks.

[Ted Craven]

Dave,

As I mentioned above, in Default mode, the value of a beaten length is uniformly 8.333 feet per length. In Val4 mode, at the Final and during Fraction 3, the value used is less than half of that, which is in keeping with the difference in Computed Beaten Length values (Segments Screen) of Val4 mode (4.8) versus Default mode (10.8).

If you followed the 'rule' to not use lines in Val4 mode where the horse was beaten more than 7.75 lengths (i.e. don't make the horse look too good when it isn't), you would have had to use the 3rd line back, which puts the horse on top.

Then you have to worry about whether the horse is in declining form, regressing final time Speed Ratings, etc. However, try this for fun: put in the #5 horse's last 3 lines and see who owns the first 2 calls - it is the #5 horse in every case!! This is an important point: when an Early horse gets the 0.0 0.0 at the Segments screen first 2 calls (i.e. owns the first 2 calls) and is unlikely to be seriously challenged for the lead - always consider this horse strongly, especially at any kind of price (e.g. 11-1 here). In a way, this frees you of dithering whether you should use the horses 3rd line over the 1st line: it doesn't matter - it will get a comfortable early lead and slow down sufficient to persist against a pace it could not face recently. If it loses, it loses (and at those odds, back it up to Place), but be in the game when that matchup scenario does hit.



Dave, regarding your over 16 beaten length value - perhaps attach a screen shot to show precisely what screen that number is appearing on. If you use Default mode and all other default adjustment settings, I'm not sure how that would appear in the Segments Screen CBL Final column for the #5 horse, line 1.

Ted

[For The Lead]

The 9th race at LRL is one of those “dreaded” maiden races. It’s not easy to get $17.00 on a winning horse all the time, especially when the ML is 7/2, so here it is.

#1 – SCR
#1A – last line. Same surface, same distance, same track, it is a “+” line.
#2 – no line. Last race was 13 days ago and was a dull effort. Prior to that it had not race in 528 days.
#3 – last line. Same distance, same surface, same track, it is a “+” line.
#4 – SCR
#5 – no line. All races have been routes, some on turf.
#6 – FTS
#7 – line 2. Last line is a route.
#8 – SCR

[For The Lead]

I could put all my posts in the "picking lines and contenders" thread, since all my posts deal with that, but because this post is basically about "early" horses, I'll put it here.

I recently installed the new update that includes the “CSR” rating/ranking.
Also, I made one change to the “DEFAULT” settings. I decided to give “VAL4” a look.
So here is the first race from LRL today.
Here’s the field for this NW2L claiming race.

#1 – no line. The last line is encouraging, but doesn’t quite fit my criteria. There is no other line to choose from in the last 90 days.
#2 – last line. This is pretty straight forward. It is a “+” race from 31 days ago, same distance, same surface, same track. Keep in mind that this horse has had 17 starts with just one win.
#3 – last line. Another straight forward line selection. Similar distance, same surface and same track. Keep in mind that this horse has just 4 lifetime starts.
#4 – last line. Again, this is a straight forward line selection. Similar distance, same surface and same track. This horse is 1 for 10 lifetime.
#5 – no line. This horse has two lifetimes races. One from 278 days ago, so I won’t be using that line. It’s last line is from CT, a “bull ring” at the distance of 4.5 furlongs. I won’t use that line for the two reasons I just mentioned.
#6 – no line. This horse hasn’t run in 225 days.
#7 – line 2. Another straight forward line selection. The last line is a route and today is a sprint, so since line 2 is a sprint from just 31 days ago and the horse ran a “+” race, that’s my line. This horse is one for ten lifetime with "7" seconds and thirds (combined). it appears it struggles to actual win.

Ok, so we have a 7 horse field that I have reduced to just 4 contenders.

As usual, I will mark the attributes of the winner, #3, that paid $19.40 in this 7 horse field.

I know most of you are two horse bettors and that's alright, but you should take the time to look at these readouts.
#2 and #3 are tied on BL/BL.
#2 is ranked #1 for the new "CSR", while #3 is ranked 4th.
On the "ESP" generated by the program, #3 is the lone "E" horse.
On the segments screen, #3 owns the first fraction, second fraction and, of course, the second call, which is to say it is the 0.0 horse at both points.
Take notice of the second call on the segments screen. The #3 is the 0.0 horse and look at the computed beaten lengths for the other 3 horses. It is clear that the #3 has a decided advantage.
My point is, even though the #2 and #3 are tied on BL/BL, which horse has the better match up in this race?? I think the answer is clear.

[For The Lead]

Race 7 from SA is an “OPEN” claiming race going 6.5 furlongs. Any horse willing to be claimed for $12,500 down to $10,500 may enter. The difference in claiming price for which the horse is entered is based on weight. If you are willing to enter for the lower price, $10,500, the horse gets 2 lbs off.
Originally a 10 horse field, there was one scratch. Here’s the field.

#1 – SCR
#2 – no line. There is just one race in the last 90 days and it was a route. Today is a sprint.
#3 – last line. This is a “(+)” line. Take note that after being off for 305 days, the horse came back at today’s level and won going wire to wire. In the next three races the horse was raised up in class level and returns today at the level where it won in its’ return to the races after the layoff. I’m sure many of you would not choose the last line, but instead, might choose line 4, but I want to know how the horse fits into the pace scenario based on its’ most recent line.
#4 – last line. This is a straight forward line selection. The last line is a “+” line.
#5 – no line. The horse has all turf races (except one) and its’ form is bad.
#6 – last line. The horses last race is the first after a layoff of 348 days. It made an ‘ok’ middle move to be within 2 lengths of the leader at the second call. The last line is a “(+)” line.
#7 – no line. The ML is =>20/1 (actually it is 30/1) and its’ form is bad.
#8 – no line. The horse hasn’t run in 344 days.
#9 – no line. The horse showed nothing in its’ last two races including its’ race 2 back at today’s level.
#10 – last line. This is another straight forward line. The horse ran a good second. It is a “+” line.

This “original” screen shot gives you a visual look at your contenders and their running style based on your line selection. Here we can see that the #3 horse is visually an early horse, while the rest of the contenders are not.

In the “TPR” screen shot it looks to be a fight to the death between the #3 and #6 turning for home. However, notice the early sticks. A “30” is really high. This horse isn’t going to hang around.

In the segments screen the picture becomes clear. Notice that the #4 and #10 horses are far back at the first and second calls. However, the #3 has a decided advantage over the #6 during the second fraction, which puts the 3 on the lead turning for home.

For those who are just interested in the BL/BL screen, the winner is second on BL/BL. I would point out, however, the “RS” (running style) column. This is where YOU get to take a visual look at each horse and make a decision as to its’ running style. Notice that the winner, #3, is the only early style horse, with 7 Quirin speed points.

And the result chart. $12.60 isn't too shabby.

[DaveEdwards]

Hi FTL (got it right this time!)

There is an interesting split between the three main contenders in terms of EPR, LPR & CPR, with each one presumably better suited than the other to different track conditions.

With this race were you taking into account the track profile? If so this leads onto my main question, depending on the prevailing conditions what would your thoughts be on when to change between a horse based on their profile.

Just to clarify as an example:
Horse A (strong EPR) is superior to Horse B (strong LPR) by say 10 lengths, but the track is running sustained. Horse A is still able to win due to it's superiority.

Horse C (strong EPR) is superior to Horse D (strong LPR) by say 3 lengths, and as above the track is running sustained. Now a trickier proposition.

Hope this is clear, if not please let me know & I'll do it again!

I notice you actually hit the trifecta with your contenders too!

Thanks.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by DaveEdwards

Hi FTL (got it right this time!)

There is an interesting split between the three main contenders in terms of EPR, LPR & CPR, with each one presumably better suited than the other to different track conditions.

With this race were you taking into account the track profile? If so this leads onto my main question, depending on the prevailing conditions what would your thoughts be on when to change between a horse based on their profile.

Just to clarify as an example:
Horse A (strong EPR) is superior to Horse B (strong LPR) by say 10 lengths, but the track is running sustained. Horse A is still able to win due to it's superiority.

Horse C (strong EPR) is superior to Horse D (strong LPR) by say 3 lengths, and as above the track is running sustained. Now a trickier proposition.

Hope this is clear, if not please let me know & I'll do it again!

I notice you actually hit the trifecta with your contenders too!

Thanks.

Actually, a track profile or model played no part in the analysis. SA just opened the day after Christmas so it is way to early for that. The analysis was made on the basis of an even playing track and the match up between the contenders.

I understand your question and, yes, once you have a clear profile and/or model, adjustments can be made to the analysis.

Yes, I noticed the exacta and trifecta were made up of my contenders, too. I'd like to tell you I am that good, but that just wouldn't be true. However, when you use solid contenders that is bound to happen from time to time.

When I handicap a race, my goal is to pick the winner. I don't necessarily handicap for exactas or trifectas. They just happen.

[For The Lead]

Here is the 8th race from LRL today.

I’m not going to go over each horse as I usually do, instead, I’m going to focus on two of the contenders in this race and the “problem” that is inherent in pace handicapping. Here’s the question. What is more important;
1 – time, OR
2 – running position?

My opinion is “running position” and I will explain.

First let’s look at the “original” screen where we can see the running lines used, paying particular attention to #2 and #4. Then look at the PP’s for each horse. Which horse do you think will be on the lead?




On the original screen you can see where I noted the faster time for the #4 horse, but does this faster time mean the horse will have the lead? No. The horse that “wants the lead” will make the lead. In this race, the #2 horse IS the early horse that wants the lead.

The rest of the screen shots, along with the chart of the race will follow in the next post.

Take note of the “RS” column where I have given my designation of each horses running style. It is easy to see that the #2 horse is the only early type and has the highest number of Quirin speed points.