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10-01-2012, 02:40 PM
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#1 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 9,238
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Ted Craven - October
My approach:
I'll try to pick races where at least 7 runners start. I use the Paceline Selection tool for a first crack at line selection, then carefully review EVERY horse for current form and whether the paceline selected makes sense. Horses with lines ranking well on Total Energy or BL/BL but who have NOT shown contentious running in the past few races in their current cycle (i.e. since last layoff break) are marked as either Secondary or Non Contenders. I eliminate from the bottom up of the BL/BL readout until I reach 4 or 5 horses who ALL could win the race. Generally speaking, if a favourite below 2-1 ranks on top by 2+ BL points, I may single it. Greater than 2-1 or closely followed by another horse >= 4-1 I will bet both. A horse < 2-1 or so who is not on Top of my BLBL can be omitted in favour of the Top ranked horse and another horse in the top 3 BLBL. A horse going at ~ 8-1+ is bet Win-Place. I am only entering races in this Contest which I also bet with real dollars. I typically bet Win and Win-Place plus Exactas. An omitted favourite (per above) which ranks well on BLBL usually is included in an Exacta Box. Of the Top 4 ranked horses, I will try to include the counter-energy horse who is not otherwise bet to Win. I will try to elaborate on any wager decision reasoning which goes either counter to my above guidelines, or is more nuanced than I could describe. (And sometimes I just goof and make erratic decisions ...) Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 10-22-2012 at 01:49 AM. Reason: spelling |
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10-21-2012, 12:47 PM
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#2 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 9,238
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PRX October 21
Race 2 $50 Win 6 $25 WP 2
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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10-21-2012, 01:14 PM
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#3 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 9,238
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PRX Race3
$50 Win 3-6
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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10-21-2012, 01:41 PM
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#4 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 9,238
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PRX Race4
$50 Win 6-7
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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10-21-2012, 05:13 PM
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#5 |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 9,238
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KEE Race 9
$50 Win 2-5
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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10-21-2012, 05:23 PM
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#6 | |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 9,238
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Quote:
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 10-21-2012 at 05:26 PM. |
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10-21-2012, 05:27 PM
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#7 | |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 9,238
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Quote:
Loss.
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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10-21-2012, 05:28 PM
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#8 | |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 9,238
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Quote:
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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10-21-2012, 05:30 PM
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#9 | |
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Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 9,238
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Quote:
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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10-21-2012, 06:20 PM
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#10 |
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The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Thoughts
Hi Ted
2 points or questions First do you think my readouts are so different than yours only because I have not changed any settings and I use Val 4 mode Or is it the fact that your rating every horse but spliting them to win and ITM groups, were as I only am only rating your 5 win contenders Seconly your thoughts on using such a poor pace line for horse 9 ? horse 9 line 1 ? |
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