Derby Match Up - Pace and Cap

PeteC · 05-05-2012, 09:40 AM

Here is a link to the Derby PP's if anyone wants to Match it....

PeteC · 05-05-2012, 10:05 AM

Here is my look at the Derby…I labeled Bodemeister, Trinninerg and Hansen as the earlies. Trinni is a fast sprinter stretching out and will be too fast early for the other two, who have needed open leads to win. The race should run OTE. I used the 46.2 half-mile from Bode’s last line to match OTE runners against…

I looked for runners who have finished 1st/2nd in graded stakes against a half-mile between 46.2 and 46.4. Here are my contenders:

Dullahan (line 1)
46.3 111.1 147.4 10-9-3-1

Creative (line 2)
46.4 111.1 141.4 5-4-2-1

Daddy Nose (line 1)
46.1 110.4 148.2 6-5-2-1

Went (line 1)
46.4 111.4 151.1 5-3-1-1

I’ll (line 2)
46.3 110.2 140.4 2-3-3-1

Factoring position and pace of race, I’ll Have Another and Creative Cause look best. I also really like the strong power move 2C-SC by Dullahan. Those will be my top three win picks.

Best success to everyone on Derby Day…

Capcondo · 05-05-2012, 01:35 PM

Thanks for putting this up here Pete. We haven't done enough of this lately.

I echo Pete's analysis of the shape of the race. I think it sets up OTE.

The OTE horses I considered are as follows:

Union Rags: Can sit 4th or 5th and has run well against fast paces. Lost the Fla Drby making a power move 2nd call to stretch. Contender.

Creative Cause: I never quite trust the fractions at SA. In the fifth at CD today, a horse with a 21.2 43.3 from SA got beat. Looks like an S/P. OUT.

Prospective: Ran well in the TAM Drby but is too far back in the others. OUT.

Went the Day Well: Lightly raced. Right position. Slow. OUT.

El Padrino: Ran ahead of Union Rags in the Fla Derby before finishing 4th. Contender.

That's it. I liked Union Rags before I ever picked up the form. I still do. El Padrino would be my second horse.

Enjoy.

Tim

dugoutgold · 05-05-2012, 03:12 PM

Sure is a difficult race to pick. (arnt all Derbys?) My 2 cents like Creative Cause and Dullahan. Early pace should be hot with Trinniberg in the early fractions. Creative comes out of the fastest Tandem and has tactical speed. Only other horse might be Gemologist who also can go to the front of come off the pace. I dont expect to win this but it was a real challenge to match them up. Happy Derby Day!!

PeteC · 05-05-2012, 08:58 PM

Very Nice Result...

Capcondo · 05-10-2012, 12:49 AM

Very nice call on I'll Have Another. I saw him as part of the pace. Tough race to call and your analysis was right on.

Tim

05-05-2012, 01:35 PM	#3
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	Derby Thanks for putting this up here Pete. We haven't done enough of this lately. I echo Pete's analysis of the shape of the race. I think it sets up OTE. The OTE horses I considered are as follows: Union Rags: Can sit 4th or 5th and has run well against fast paces. Lost the Fla Drby making a power move 2nd call to stretch. Contender. Creative Cause: I never quite trust the fractions at SA. In the fifth at CD today, a horse with a 21.2 43.3 from SA got beat. Looks like an S/P. OUT. Prospective: Ran well in the TAM Drby but is too far back in the others. OUT. Went the Day Well: Lightly raced. Right position. Slow. OUT. El Padrino: Ran ahead of Union Rags in the Fla Derby before finishing 4th. Contender. That's it. I liked Union Rags before I ever picked up the form. I still do. El Padrino would be my second horse. Enjoy. Tim

05-05-2012, 08:58 PM	#5
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Very Nice Result... Attached Images

05-10-2012, 12:49 AM	#6
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	Congratulations PeteC Very nice call on I'll Have Another. I saw him as part of the pace. Tough race to call and your analysis was right on. Tim

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05-05-2012, 10:05 AM	#2
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Here is my look at the Derby…I labeled Bodemeister, Trinninerg and Hansen as the earlies. Trinni is a fast sprinter stretching out and will be too fast early for the other two, who have needed open leads to win. The race should run OTE. I used the 46.2 half-mile from Bode’s last line to match OTE runners against… I looked for runners who have finished 1st/2nd in graded stakes against a half-mile between 46.2 and 46.4. Here are my contenders: Dullahan (line 1) 46.3 111.1 147.4 10-9-3-1 Creative (line 2) 46.4 111.1 141.4 5-4-2-1 Daddy Nose (line 1) 46.1 110.4 148.2 6-5-2-1 Went (line 1) 46.4 111.4 151.1 5-3-1-1 I’ll (line 2) 46.3 110.2 140.4 2-3-3-1 Factoring position and pace of race, I’ll Have Another and Creative Cause look best. I also really like the strong power move 2C-SC by Dullahan. Those will be my top three win picks. Best success to everyone on Derby Day…

05-05-2012, 03:12 PM	#4
dugoutgold Grade 1 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 206	Sure is a difficult race to pick. (arnt all Derbys?) My 2 cents like Creative Cause and Dullahan. Early pace should be hot with Trinniberg in the early fractions. Creative comes out of the fastest Tandem and has tactical speed. Only other horse might be Gemologist who also can go to the front of come off the pace. I dont expect to win this but it was a real challenge to match them up. Happy Derby Day!!