The Hat's Marathon Play Wins Again

[Bill Lyster]

Here are the top 15 miles times from the results charts, using the best ultimately for each horse. Note that some horses, like Creative Cause had 3 of the 15 best adjusted mile times.

The winner - I'll Have Another had the 1st & 4th best adjusted mile time!

[Bill Lyster]

Here are the top 15 miles times from the results charts, using the best ultimately for each horse. Note that some horses, like Creative Cause had 3 of the 15 best adjusted mile times.

The winner - I'll Have Another had the 1st & 4th best adjusted mile time!

This time with the attachment.

Note that Union Rags and Gemologist, among others were really bumped up by track varients and other adjustments. They did not even go in the computer in the final analysis!

[Bill Lyster]

Finally got it right...

[Bill Lyster]

After you account for the E battle, the winner was near the top here too. Super Saver 6th best actual, 2nd once pace properly considered.

[Bill V.]

I had the pleasure of sitting with Bill L the last two days at Del Mar
I was very impressed with Bills Match Up data work.
I never saw a guy come so close and just not have the breaks
Glad you hit the big one Bill

[dugoutgold]

Very well done! Ive been away from this far too long and need to back to practicing again. congrats!

[shoeless]

Nice hit and like your spreadsheet

[Bill Lyster]

In case you think this is a fluke, here is a post made a couple of years ago (by me as it turns out):

FYI, in the interest of trying to present some kind of balance here, in 2010 the method did not win the Derby.


Originally posted in 2007 or 2008, after Richie first made the Marathon play available in the Forum.

"Today on the local racing program the SoCal announcer came out with these stats.

The last 31 Big Caps – 1¼ mile - were won by horses that were first or second at the stretch call (i.e. the mile).

41 out of the last 44 Kentucky Derbys (these nos. may be slightly off, it took awhile to put the info into reference) were won by horses that were first or second at the mile call, with Grindstone 4th and Giamcomo 6th - forgot the 3rd non-conformer."

If anyone is interested in the spreadsheet I used, PM me and I will send it to you.

Bill

In light of subject matter of this post, I thought this was an amazing set of stats, seemingly perfectly conforming to THE HAT’s observations."

[Bill Lyster]

P.S. since the remaining two legs of the Triple Crown are also Marathons the info developed here should stand up pretty well for those races as well.

Bill


If you PM me for the spreadsheet I need your email address. File is too large to post here.

[dlivery]

Hello

Right you are sir even when Hat had expressed in his follow-up any thing over a mile and the the horse was on the turn 1'st or second you would have to include the horse for in the money placing.

Lawrence