Np

[noddub62]

Bill,

Why did you use line 4 as it was not a comparable race due to the track being listed as good.

Just curious? Or am I confused about comparable.

Hope is going well with you.

Bud

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by noddub62

Bill,

Why did you use line 4 as it was not a comparable race due to the track being listed as good.

Just curious? Or am I confused about comparable.

Hope is going well with you.

Bud

It is just a feeling that it is a correct call

Bill

[gl45]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

It is just a feeling that it is a correct call

Bill

that is the difference between good and average handicapper. Knowing when to bent the rules.

[noddub62]

Bill & GL,

I'll buy that.

Thanks,

[Rodz]

Hello Ted, on your ratings, wouldn't the 6 have gone in as Price Only?
Rod

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Rodz

Hello Ted, on your ratings, wouldn't the 6 have gone in as Price Only?
Rod

Rodz,

Just focusing on the NewPace analysis in this race (and then, just the Adjusted SR set), if you let the 6 in as a 3rd Late due to Price Only (the #6 is ranked 3rd Late and separated from the 2nd Late #5 by only 1 point - we sort Late by the SR low), then you also have to consider the #3 horse in as a 3rd Early on Price Only (because it was tied with the 2nd Early #2) and at 18-1 was also well above natural odds.

If so, easy enough to throw out the #3, even only using CompSR. Now you have 5 horses. How to get that down to 3 for a reasonable betting situation? Again - using NewPace concepts - we've got a great analysis by Bill V using straight-up RDSS/Sartin.

How would you do it?

Ted

[gl45]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Attachment 26654

Rodz,

Just focusing on the NewPace analysis in this race (and then, just the Adjusted SR set), if you let the 6 in as a 3rd Late due to Price Only (the #6 is ranked 3rd Late and separated from the 2nd Late #5 by only 1 point - we sort Late by the SR low), then you also have to consider the #3 horse in as a 3rd Early on Price Only (because it was tied with the 2nd Early #2) and at 18-1 was also well above natural odds.

If so, easy enough to throw out the #3, even only using CompSR. Now you have 5 horses. How to get that down to 3 for a reasonable betting situation? Again - using NewPace concepts - we've got a great analysis by Bill V using straight-up RDSS/Sartin.



How would you do it?

Ted

Ted,
I think the problem is....do I choose Raw TM ratings or Adjusted TM rating. If somebody has a decision model of the two ratings, then would be easy to find out which rating is the most profitable.

[sureshotlink]

Originally Posted by gl45

Ted,
I think the problem is....do I choose Raw TM ratings or Adjusted TM rating. If somebody has a decision model of the two ratings, then would be easy to find out which rating is the most profitable.

In my daily play the only time i look at raw ratings is for a line that is being extracted or projected.The equalized,normalized @ adjusted rating tells me everything i need to know.Work's done for you why mess with it.Doc's par gap formulae is good as any out there.

Success To All!

[Rodz]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Attachment 26654

Rodz,

Just focusing on the NewPace analysis in this race (and then, just the Adjusted SR set), if you let the 6 in as a 3rd Late due to Price Only (the #6 is ranked 3rd Late and separated from the 2nd Late #5 by only 1 point - we sort Late by the SR low), then you also have to consider the #3 horse in as a 3rd Early on Price Only (because it was tied with the 2nd Early #2) and at 18-1 was also well above natural odds.

If so, easy enough to throw out the #3, even only using CompSR. Now you have 5 horses. How to get that down to 3 for a reasonable betting situation? Again - using NewPace concepts - we've got a great analysis by Bill V using straight-up RDSS/Sartin.

How would you do it?

Ted

Hi Ted, from my understanding of the method, if you have chosen 7 and 2 Early; 1 and 3 could potentially be Early Price Only.
The 4 goes in Late and a choice has to be made between the 5 and 6 for second Late horse, with the
horse not chosen going in Late Price Only.
In this case if the 6 was not chosen Late it would definitely be backed Price Only.
How the other contenders, potentially 6 of the 8 runners, were bet would be down to betting preferences.
As the favourite isn’t dominating the others, the 1 or 3 could be backed along with the 2 and 6. In other circumstances the 7 may be backed on its own or with the longshots.

I don’t use NewPace the way it was originally set out but I like some of the ideas and find it useful for sorting out contenders.

Like you I was intrigued by the 'confidence range' ideas in the book ('How to Measure Anything' by Doug Hubbard). I think there is more potential research there.

I’m a bit of a lurker on the site. There are some brilliant posters. I probably spend most time in the MatchUp thread; couldn’t be much more different to NewPace!

I think RDSS looks like an excellent program and one day (when I’ve grown up?) I hope to try it out.
Well done Ted on RDSS and this site.
The posters are so knowledgeable and usually very positive and helpful.
Best wishes, Rod.

[mikesal57]

Ted...

Just ran across this...

In using Trackmaster 100 DTV setting....it would averted/lessen any decisions...