New Pace Study & Approach - Page 7 - Pace and Cap

mikesal57 · 01-11-2012, 11:58 AM

Races 6-10

mikesal57 · 01-12-2012, 11:39 AM

Parx up-date as of 1/9

Bill Lyster · 01-12-2012, 02:35 PM

Wow, pretty tough sleddin all around, unless you limit betting to 4+ male only races claimers and up or races at 6.5 and 7 furlongs.

BJennet · 01-12-2012, 10:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Parx up-date as of 1/9

Hi Mike,

Thanks for your continuing work with NP. I had a chance to look at PARX, but not yet at TAM. Obviously, it's continuing to be a tough place for NP to succeed. If we figure that, for NP to do well, it needs to be used at a track where it both does well and the crowd does badly. MNR is a good example. Compared to PARX, where NP contenders hit at .64 (although, admittedly, 99 races is a small sample size), well below it's average of .74, at MNR, NP contenders had a hit rate of .8.

But I think the most important thing to remember about NP, is that it's not a powerful enough model to produce profits from a wide variety of races or tracks or against a sharp betting public, like PARX. In fact, I think it would be tough for any handicapper to well at PARX, regardless of their style or method, based on a look at this sample. NP can only do well at places where large mutuels (and exacta payoffs) are fairly common, like MNR, to make any profit at all.

You mentioned looking for patterns, and I wish you luck with that, but I think simply looking at the average NP hit-rate and average win and exotics prices would be a good index of whether that track is worth pursuing.

Speaking of patterns, I haven't taken a close look at this, but it appears to me, just between PARX and MNR, that NP contenders that are morning-line favorites have a hit-rate of about 50%. Might be worth a play at decent odds.

Thanks again.

Cheers,

B Jennet

mikesal57 · 01-13-2012, 11:56 AM

thanks guys for looking into his...and yes..its tough!!!

mikesal57 · 01-13-2012, 11:57 AM

Tampa 1/13

Races 1-5

mikesal57 · 01-13-2012, 11:58 AM

Races 6-10

gl45 · 01-13-2012, 05:03 PM

anybody's playing Tampa today
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=Wj_OmtqVLxY

Ted Craven · 01-14-2012, 08:21 AM

I'm doing at least 3 races at TAM (along with other PAIHL Contest teammates): races 5, 8 and 10.

I'll post in Selections after scratches. I like Tampa!

Ted

mikesal57 · 01-15-2012, 11:17 AM

NOTE THIS on all 8.5 furs Tampa
need to include ties

01-11-2012, 11:58 AM	#61
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	Races 6-10 Attached Images __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

01-13-2012, 11:56 AM	#65
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	thanks guys for looking into his...and yes..its tough!!! __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

01-13-2012, 11:57 AM	#66
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	Tampa 1/13 Races 1-5 Attached Images __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

01-13-2012, 11:58 AM	#67
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	Races 6-10 Attached Images __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

01-14-2012, 08:21 AM	#69
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,251	I'm doing at least 3 races at TAM (along with other PAIHL Contest teammates): races 5, 8 and 10. I'll post in Selections after scratches. I like Tampa! Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

01-12-2012, 02:35 PM	#63
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,494	Wow, pretty tough sleddin all around, unless you limit betting to 4+ male only races claimers and up or races at 6.5 and 7 furlongs.

01-13-2012, 05:03 PM	#68
gl45 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 878	anybody's playing Tampa today http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=Wj_OmtqVLxY

01-15-2012, 11:17 AM	#70
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	NOTE THIS on all 8.5 furs Tampa need to include ties Attached Images __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack Last edited by mikesal57; 01-15-2012 at 11:26 AM.

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