Keeneland Friday 10/14- TM 101 Race Class - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 10-14-2011, 10:49 AM

Nice explanation and mini course on how to read the conditions of the race vs today's horses and contenders. The race will tell us who is right TODAY, but Bud's comments should be fully understood before you start to handicap any race.

Thanks FTL

Bill Lyster · 10-14-2011, 10:59 AM

12 is OUT.

PeteC · 10-14-2011, 12:04 PM

I like the 7 as the dominant early...

SilentRun · 10-14-2011, 01:31 PM

I LIKE THE 7-2-1. The 7 will probably go off as the low odds favorite considering his M/L is 2/1 and he is a speedball and will be tough to beat.

But the value bets would be the 1 & 2 and I think the 2 especially has a good chance to nail the 7.

Ernie

Capcondo · 10-14-2011, 01:34 PM

The 7 in here looks scary off the last race. But, I don't think the pace will go like the last race. I'm going to use the 7's second back on the dirt at Saratoga: 22.6 45.4 1:10.6.

Other contenders:

2: Presser. Keeneland 4 back the horse goes 22.8 45.8 1:09.7 and has two grass races against fast paces where he finsihed well.

3: Early horse on the grass. Splits from las don't match the two.

These are my only contenders. Sitting off the lead, I think the two will benefit from the 6.5 furlongs and he is my pick.

Tim

Bill V. · 10-14-2011, 02:20 PM

Good Skill Guys

This one is too tough for me with the layoffs and the the distance
switches I will be rooting for a positive outcome

FTL Thank you for your work I really am getting into what your showing us

Mike and Richie Good Skill to you and I hope i'm wrong
But just raw numbers wise I entered Richs lines into
Thoromation Not only is the 11 last, a message could have popped up
and said Will finish 3rd... in race 9

For The Lead · 10-14-2011, 05:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikesal57

FTL...except for horses #1 and #12...wouldn't all the other be in the same situation as the 11? They all have just 2 wins ?

Witjh the exception of the #1 and #12 (which was scr) the rest have just 2 wins each, that's absolutely correct.
However, each horse has taken a separate path leading to this race. With respect to the #11, it was that path I was talking about.
I always read the conditions of a race first, so I know what kind of horses I am dealing with.
Then I read the horses PP's, which include past conditions, as well as all the other things we are all familiar with, to see how the horse got from "there" (previous races) to ................................."here" (today's race). It allows you to evaluate each horse on other factors, not just times and rankings. Sometimes, like everything else in handicapping horse races, it can be frustrating when things don't turn out the way you saw it, but most of the time it gives you a clearer picture.

It is so much easier when you are dealing with "Graded" races. The horse has either been successful at that level or it hasn't! But at the lower levels of racing with all the various conditions there are, it is a little harder. You really have to understand what each condition means and how it compares to other conditions. And, really, isn't it those lower levels that are the "meat and potatoes" of horse racing?

Anyway, best of luck to everyone in today's race.

SilentRun · 10-14-2011, 05:06 PM

Well...3 won @ 19.60......and all the pp's were on the grass. I wouldn't play an all Turf horse on dirt anyway.

Ernie

mikesal57 · 10-15-2011, 08:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Good Skill Guys

Mike and Richie Good Skill to you and I hope i'm wrong
But just raw numbers wise I entered Richs lines into
Thoromation Not only is the 11 last, a message could have popped up
and said Will finish 3rd... in race 9

Bill..I'm shocked by your response..

mike

p.s.- he didn't finish last

Bill V. · 10-15-2011, 09:27 AM

No dont be.. I was being silly I am sorry if I offended
You or Richie

I didn't think the 11 had the goods when I did the race, but should mind my own business

I just was speaking to Richie Thursday night and I told him I was
enetering lines in these Match Up races into Thoromation
Rich uses only raw lines so I entered his final 4 horses
into thoromation The 11 finished last of the 4

I apologize It was wrong to be silly at other expense

Bill

10-14-2011, 01:34 PM	#15
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	Kee #8 The 7 in here looks scary off the last race. But, I don't think the pace will go like the last race. I'm going to use the 7's second back on the dirt at Saratoga: 22.6 45.4 1:10.6. Other contenders: 2: Presser. Keeneland 4 back the horse goes 22.8 45.8 1:09.7 and has two grass races against fast paces where he finsihed well. 3: Early horse on the grass. Splits from las don't match the two. These are my only contenders. Sitting off the lead, I think the two will benefit from the 6.5 furlongs and he is my pick. Tim

10-14-2011, 02:20 PM	#16
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Ftl Good Skill Guys This one is too tough for me with the layoffs and the the distance switches I will be rooting for a positive outcome FTL Thank you for your work I really am getting into what your showing us Mike and Richie Good Skill to you and I hope i'm wrong But just raw numbers wise I entered Richs lines into Thoromation Not only is the 11 last, a message could have popped up and said Will finish 3rd... in race 9

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10-14-2011, 10:49 AM	#11
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,499	Nice explanation and mini course on how to read the conditions of the race vs today's horses and contenders. The race will tell us who is right TODAY, but Bud's comments should be fully understood before you start to handicap any race. Thanks FTL

10-14-2011, 10:59 AM	#12
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,499	Scratch the 12 12 is OUT.

10-14-2011, 12:04 PM	#13
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	I like the 7 as the dominant early...

10-14-2011, 01:31 PM	#14
SilentRun Grade 1 Aspiree Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 678	I LIKE THE 7-2-1. The 7 will probably go off as the low odds favorite considering his M/L is 2/1 and he is a speedball and will be tough to beat. But the value bets would be the 1 & 2 and I think the 2 especially has a good chance to nail the 7. Ernie

10-14-2011, 05:06 PM	#18
SilentRun Grade 1 Aspiree Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 678	Well...3 won @ 19.60......and all the pp's were on the grass. I wouldn't play an all Turf horse on dirt anyway. Ernie

10-15-2011, 09:27 AM	#20
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	No dont be.. I was being silly I am sorry if I offended You or Richie I didn't think the 11 had the goods when I did the race, but should mind my own business I just was speaking to Richie Thursday night and I told him I was enetering lines in these Match Up races into Thoromation Rich uses only raw lines so I entered his final 4 horses into thoromation The 11 finished last of the 4 I apologize It was wrong to be silly at other expense Bill