Interesting Race at Saratoga - Pace and Cap

pktruckdriver · 08-09-2011, 12:26 PM

It seems that it may be another day off turf, so let me get this race which is on the dirt, 6f, Fillies, Cl 20k, and it has a invader from FL, like on Monday we had another FL horse invade here and win, I had him, but this horse brought his jockey with him, Dennis Carr, and went wire to wire, which we know is pretty common here lately.

I will post various screens to look at it, and see if we can find something here.

pktruckdriver · 08-09-2011, 12:31 PM

part II the horse's in contention

clore1030 · 08-09-2011, 12:54 PM

Are the pace lines used of your own choice, or are they program-generated?

Just curious. I'll download later and look at the races tomorrow after 11am. I try to only consider the horses that are actually running after scratches. It will also depend on the condition of the track. If it's not a fast track, I may not even download.

But from what I see, the EPR/CPR figs and the BL/BL scores are all too close for me to make a play since I only use one horse. I may end up with different pace lines, so I won't say that I'm definitely passing on this race yet.

pktruckdriver · 08-09-2011, 08:26 PM

Yes, agreed with the scratches not yet up, and the possibility of rain exists too, but in case all stays the same, I did do my own paceline selections for everything but NP, and see it very tight, but odds are all playable , or may be playable, and the Fav , or possible Fav may be the 8 horse.

Patrick

dreadpirit · 08-09-2011, 11:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pktruckdriver

Yes, agreed with the scratches not yet up, and the possibility of rain exists too, but in case all stays the same, I did do my own paceline selections for everything but NP, and see it very tight, but odds are all playable , or may be playable, and the Fav , or possible Fav may be the 8 horse.

Patrick

Just curious - why did you discard the 1st line for the 2? Also, unless you are assuming a sloppy track, I think the second line would be better on the 9.

While interesting from a betting perspective (lots of horses close in evaluation), this doesn't strike me as a great handicapping race (too much confusion).

On my lines, not much to seperate 5, 9, 3, 4. The 5 needs the lead and is unlikely to get it with the 2 in the race. Add to that, the 2 could end up running away on the front end, depending on how quickly she puts the 5 away. Looks like a big mess. If you feel you need to play find some overlays in the exactas and go to town - but I pass the race in the Win pool.

pktruckdriver · 08-10-2011, 09:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dreadpirit

Just curious - why did you discard the 1st line for the 2? Also, unless you are assuming a sloppy track, I think the second line would be better on the 9.

While interesting from a betting perspective (lots of horses close in evaluation), this doesn't strike me as a great handicapping race (too much confusion).

On my lines, not much to seperate 5, 9, 3, 4. The 5 needs the lead and is unlikely to get it with the 2 in the race. Add to that, the 2 could end up running away on the front end, depending on how quickly she puts the 5 away. Looks like a big mess. If you feel you need to play find some overlays in the exactas and go to town - but I pass the race in the Win pool.

Thanks for your reply.

To answer your question why the 2nd line, I look at last 3, but will look back up to 180 days if necessary to find surface and distance, and also I try to find a line that is tops in Percept Total, if possible too.

Now for the 9, yes his is the Class of this field, but he does not rate on either the VDC or BL/BL , thou his Total Energy is up there, I guess this makes this races a gut call too, see my BL screen with the 9

pktruckdriver · 08-10-2011, 11:16 AM

I do know how to pick them, 5 scratches in this race so I guess, this is a mute issue, and definitely not a race to play.

Maybe Thursday's will be better and I may wait till scratches are up, we'll see, so best of luck today , no matter where you p[lay.

patrick

clore1030 · 08-10-2011, 11:34 AM

For me it's all a moot point now. Four horses left, none of them appear anxious for the lead. With that in mind, it looks like the 9 horse, but the odds will be low.

08-09-2011, 12:26 PM	#1
pktruckdriver Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Saratoga Springs Posts: 1,547	Interesting Race at Saratoga It seems that it may be another day off turf, so let me get this race which is on the dirt, 6f, Fillies, Cl 20k, and it has a invader from FL, like on Monday we had another FL horse invade here and win, I had him, but this horse brought his jockey with him, Dennis Carr, and went wire to wire, which we know is pretty common here lately. I will post various screens to look at it, and see if we can find something here. Attached Images __________________ http://pktruckdriver.blogspot.com/

08-09-2011, 12:31 PM	#2
pktruckdriver Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Saratoga Springs Posts: 1,547	part II the horse's in contention Attached Images __________________ http://pktruckdriver.blogspot.com/

08-09-2011, 08:26 PM	#4
pktruckdriver Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Saratoga Springs Posts: 1,547	Yes, agreed with the scratches not yet up, and the possibility of rain exists too, but in case all stays the same, I did do my own paceline selections for everything but NP, and see it very tight, but odds are all playable , or may be playable, and the Fav , or possible Fav may be the 8 horse. Patrick __________________ http://pktruckdriver.blogspot.com/

08-10-2011, 11:16 AM	#7
pktruckdriver Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Saratoga Springs Posts: 1,547	I do know how to pick them, 5 scratches in this race so I guess, this is a mute issue, and definitely not a race to play. Maybe Thursday's will be better and I may wait till scratches are up, we'll see, so best of luck today , no matter where you p[lay. patrick __________________ http://pktruckdriver.blogspot.com/

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08-09-2011, 12:54 PM	#3
clore1030 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,678	Are the pace lines used of your own choice, or are they program-generated? Just curious. I'll download later and look at the races tomorrow after 11am. I try to only consider the horses that are actually running after scratches. It will also depend on the condition of the track. If it's not a fast track, I may not even download. But from what I see, the EPR/CPR figs and the BL/BL scores are all too close for me to make a play since I only use one horse. I may end up with different pace lines, so I won't say that I'm definitely passing on this race yet.

08-10-2011, 11:34 AM	#8
clore1030 Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 1,678	For me it's all a moot point now. Four horses left, none of them appear anxious for the lead. With that in mind, it looks like the 9 horse, but the odds will be low.