Del Mar New Pace Results thru last Sunday

[Bill Lyster]

I worked 70 races from the current Del Mar season from opening day through last Sunday with much gracious help from Ted C. See notes at bottom for races not worked.

I ran the original EL 2.0 logic because I think that even though it was not strictly in conformance with the way Dave Schwartz originally had it, it was the way that Ted first interpreted it and far from being a dud, it has the best results so far.

Next to that info I ran a filter that eliminated any horse without a race in 95 days or who had not had a race or a workout in 45 days (at DMR, no body even enters without several works); for routes I cut this layoff back to 75 days; then I eliminated any horse with morning line odds of 20:1 or greater. ROI for win, exacta and trifecta are shown. The next batch of data is for the current logic of the program (TM SR, in blue headed columns) and the first panels are straight program logic, no filters; the next one eliminated 180 day layoffs, 40 days not on track and ML > 20/1; the last set of info in orange is the 95/40/20:1 stuff mentioned earlier.

lastly, I did the same for "Adjusted SR"(blue). Quite honestly, this was a disappointment for me because I imagined that the programs adjustments would produce better results. The win ROI is 21% for 4 horses.

Oh yeah, Columns AH to AN show the 1st, 2nd 3rd, 4th place finisher, winners odds to $1 and $1 payoffs for exacta and trifecta.

This is all the info I have for these races, you are seeing it all. If its not there and you want it, have a go at some independent research my friends and sort it to your heart's content or confusion, whichever comes first.

Whether you use this part of the program as a stand alone handicapping tool or an adjunct to RDSS, it brings into play horses that RDSS users in the mainstream normally don't get, in my opinion. For instance if you go into RDSS and label the visual running style of the runners you will find a few races where one or more of the 4 suggested Early/Late contenders can be eliminated. By doing so, "judiciously", the ROI should go up.


Best regards,

Bill

** See spreadsheet in next post **

[Bill Lyster]

use this one... had to make a few corrections to trifecta payoffs in Original EL 2.0

[mikesal57]

Bill..

An excellent and current workout at one track......nice job!!

At 31% and no thinking at all using original EL....would be way to go(at Delmar , but can be different at your track)

exotics...looks like you should avoid altogether

there's no difference of who's better..the E's or L's

some of the bigger payoffs are in the E category especially over last few days on chart..L's produce more low prices

These are things you can see and profit on with a workup like this

Maybe with Dave's NP Improvements you can revise this chart and show some better results..

again..good job Bill

[mikesal57]

Just fooling around with your chart..

I know this is a small sample but maybe a pattern will unfold...

8.5 distance ..4 winners out of 5 races at an avg of 7-1 odds..

Turf races are unprofitable...

hmmm

[Ted Craven]

Thanks very much Bill for your work on this so far! And Mike for the follow up.

I took the liberty of copying this thread to the public RDSS 2.0 forum for all to see, here:

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7582

Unless there are any technical NewPace details involved, let's continue the discussion on Bill's work in the RDSS 2.0 public forum. Only the technical implementation details (the algorithms) need to be restricted to this private NewPace forum, at Dave S's request. Let's share everything else.

Ted