E/L 2.0 for Belmont 6/15 $1.1 million carryover ?

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by So Cal Al

Thanks, Barb and Ted, for the E/L 2.0 information............now we have to avoid the dreaded paraylsis by anaylsis

Indeed! However, if what one is doing is working, I wouldn't get exercised over a bunch of alternate numbers. Consider them as a possible corollary.

Good luck!

Ted

[cdax]

Bel4 $2 pick6

3,7/1,4,6/6,8/13/5/5,8 = $48.00

Good luck to all.

Chris

[So Cal Al]

Thanks. B. J.
Actually, I was not part of a syndicate. I just had a 50cent Pick 4 (for a total of $36 invested) instead of a $1 or $2 one. Ted and I have had some discussions in the past about syndicates, but there are many, many issues involved.
The Belmont Pick 6 card is very tough to handicap (at least for me), and there may be another carryover.........unless a syndicate can go deep enough in some races (especially #6 and #7).

Lots of skill today!
Al

[cdax]

I submitted this:

Bel4 $2 p6

3,7/6,8/6,8/7/8,11,13/5 = $48.00

Now it's time to go to work and make back my $48.

Chris

[JeffH]

Thanks for the information! Good luck to everyone!

[BJennet]

The scratches of my two singles knocked me, and I'm guessing at least part of the public out of this one. Except for the last race, I don't see any real bombs herfe, but I still think it's going to take a pretty large ticket to hit. Best of luck to all who are playing. I'm guessing this will pay at least 150k.

[BJennet]

Originally Posted by So Cal Al

Thanks. B. J.
Actually, I was not part of a syndicate. I just had a 50cent Pick 4 (for a total of $36 invested) instead of a $1 or $2 one. Ted and I have had some discussions in the past about syndicates, but there are many, many issues involved.
The Belmont Pick 6 card is very tough to handicap (at least for me), and there may be another carryover.........unless a syndicate can go deep enough in some races (especially #6 and #7).

Lots of skill today!
Al

Al,

Sorry if I mistook you for someone else Ted had mentioned - still a very nice hit. Agree with you on the problems with syndicates - I was thinking of an ad hoc 'recreational' pool. Agree that if you're taking syndicate or team play seriously it can become quite complex - blackjack is similar.

Cheers,

B Jennet

[BJennet]

Even Steve Crist found this a tough one. These were his picks. He mentions that the $4.1 pool is NYRA's largest for a non-Breeder's cup Pick-6.

Big Belmont Carryover: As Tough as it Gets
By Steven Crist
ShareThis

Email
Print



1:00 pm: Today's 4th through 9th races at Belmont Park are interesting, challenging and contentious -- terrific for fool-around horseplaying but a nightmare for Pick-6 players chasing a $1.13 carryover from Belmont Stakes Day, the second largest carryover in New York racing history.

I've been looking at these six races for many of the last 24 hours and the more I look the less I like this pick-6. This is in no way a complaint about the card, and I'm looking forward to playing and watching most of the races in the sequence. I feel obligated to participate in the pick-6 because of the seven-digit carryover and the off chance that I'm walking around particularly smart or lucky today, but I'm making more of a token play than a full frontal assault.

These carryovers are usually taken down once they get into rarefied financial territory because syndicates and whales jump into the pool with massive investments, and because even the toughest-looking card can always end up being a chalkfest. This one feels different, with the distinct possibility of another carryover.

Five of the six races are on turf (listed as "good" after taking just a few sprinkles since Belmont Day), three of them at six furlongs. Turf sprints are tough enough, but even the kinds of races that can usually be boiled down to a couple of standouts have come up tough. The first leg, a 10-furlong maiden race, has a field of just eight but six of them have something to recommend them. The lone dirt race, a statebred N1x, is not the usual clash between a recent impressive maiden winner or two and those who have been running 2nd or 3rd at this level -- instead, it's filled with returnees from layoffs and out-of-towners facing statebreds for the first time.

Here's the lineup after scratches. Scheduled post time for the first leg is 2:36 p.m. I'll post my play before it starts and and follow it through to the end win, lose or carry.





2:15 pm: Having some computer issues posting art today, so instead of a pretty Formulator screen-grab with color-coded chiclets, here's a spreadsheet version of my $792 play:



Pretty thin, right? Please understand that I'm not opining that every horse absent above is a true "x" in the usual sense of being a throwout or a no-hoper (like, say, Mission Approved and Ruler on Ice last Saturday.) If I felt like investing more heavily, I'd move all the B's above to A's and the C's to B's and add a dozen or more C's throughout the card. I also note that $648 of my $792 singles a 0-for-13 maiden in the finale, not a horse I'd ever bet $48 to win on much less $648, as a 3-1ish favorite. But if by some miracle I get that far, maybe I'll be looking at a $15k payoff and I'd bet $648 to win on Galaxy Jet at 20-1 any day.

It worked out to just three tickets because I spent an extra $72 combining all the A's and B's on my main ticket. Ergo:

3,5,7/2,8,10/6,7,9,10/7,9/8,10,11,13/1 = $576

2,6,8/2,8,10/6,7/7/8,13/1 = $72

3,5,7/2,8,10/6,7/7/8,13/3,9 = $144



2:45 pm: Clear Attempt ($4.50) and Colossal Gift, who ran a close 2-3 in an April 29th maiden race at Keeneland, ran a close 1-2 as the 6-5 favorite and 5-2 second choice in the opening leg of the Pick-6. The dime super paid $10.02. What an easy game. Everyone's alive.



3:00 pm: Today's additional pick-6 handle was $4,103,130, a NYRA record other than Breeders' Cup Days.