Philadelphia Park Data for Decision Making

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Ted Craven

Bill,

Respectfully, citing someone else's work in an answer to a proposition under discussion (Layoffs, FTS), as you did with the Follow Up excerpt of Doc's - is not the same thing as 'research', at least not the same as digging into a collection of data (either an electronic database or a collection of DRFs as they did in the old days) to prove, disprove or qualify a point. Not minimizing the 'research' you did to search through the FU issues to find a relevant opinion once held by Doc - which may or may not be currently valid, or as valid now as then - just that it strikes me FTL may have been referring to 'research' with some hard, current and of long duration numbers behind it (re hit rate, or average mutuels of FTS winners). He does seem to have provided that info for Layoff horses.

I accept that you trust and believe and are a messenger for what Doc has written on various subjects - but Doc himself (sometimes) changed his opinion on things he once wrote, changing with the times or sometimes with newly provided information. I also believe a lot of what Doc and others wrote, but usually only until I can prove or disprove it for myself. I once jokingly asked him if he would reimburse me for losing bets I made based on implementing my understanding of what he wrote in the Follow Up. He laughed and declined (i.e. it's up to me...)

And for whatever it's worth, it occurs to me that one difference between Layoff horses and FTS is that the population of the former would likely be much older than that of the latter, FTS probably tending to have a much higher percentage of 2 YO than the entire population of Layoff horses FTL cited. For FTS, all you have is workout patterns (and opinions about breeding and trainers, etc), while with Layoff horses who have run before, you have their previous ability and previous form cycle info, as well as their laid-off time frame to use as a factor when identifying them as Win contenders or not, today.

FWIW.

Ted

Sorry Just as you feel you are the new Doc and have the right to change
his work I feel his words are the basis of my success
I ask myself why research what has never been published.
Spend my time gathering data and proclaiming that you have the new answers is fine if that
is what you need . to make your living

I prefer to believe what I read in copyrighted journals from a man who
put his name and beliefs in solid written text

Bill