Time for some help

[Bill V.]

So one of you "Had to laugh" when I said
There are no right or wrong answers

Thank you Ted and everybody for all your input It was very entertaining
and helped me

[Charlie D]

I don't think there can be a right way Bill because horses are not machines and horse races are not mechanical processes as stated.


Look at the PP of the horse you posted and you'll see different POR's, different Positions and different Speedfigures. But most important i think you see a horse reacting differently to the PACE OF THE RACE.


Aoto selection of Line 1 may be totally irrelevant, so may the use of best of last 3 and every other automated Paceline selection process all because of TODAYS Pace of Race Match Up.

[Charlie D]

What were those books called, was it PACE makes the Race, The Race is PACE???




PACE = rate of movement, the rate of movement impacts the energy distribution of horse and horses. This impacts final time, finishing position and beaten lengths.


Good titles for books about horse racing imho.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

So one of you "Had to laugh" when I said
There are no right or wrong answers

Thank you Ted and everybody for all your input It was very entertaining
and helped me

Well, let me step right up to the plate!

The least you could do is NOT quote me out of context.

What I said was, "I have to laugh at the phrase “there is no right or wrong”. While one may subscribe to that line of thought, there is also the thought, “you can either win or you can lose”.
It’s like playing Blackjack. How can you tell someone who consistently hits their “16” against the dealers “6” that what they are doing is wrong? It’s their money isn’t it? They can do whatever they want, right? But you know they will lose in the end."

[Charlie D]

Just another thought and Ted can remove if he wants because it's Off topic.


If TODAYS Pace of Race has such a massive impact on the outcome of a race. It should follow that Track Profiles are a waste of time and energy as they are irrelevant to TODAYS race.


Maybe thats why The Hat didn't seem to bother with them.


Anyway. Good skill i'll catch up with you all later.

[clore1030]

I find it interesting that even if we were to examine all of the horses in this particular race, the question of which line to use for "Galan Fete" will never be answered or necessary - as Mike mentioned earlier, the horse was scratched.

May I suggest that perhaps a similar exercise be offered with a race that has yet to occur, where we can at least be able to double-check whether the one line picked (which is different than which lines were considered to determine the one used) was somewhat properly predictive? Not necessarily as whether one had the winner, but whether one accurately assessed the pace of the race.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

I don't think there can be a right way Bill because horses are not machines and horse races are not mechanical processes as stated.


Look at the PP of the horse you posted and you'll see different POR's, different Positions and different Speedfigures. But most important i think you see a horse reacting differently to the PACE OF THE RACE.


Aoto selection of Line 1 may be totally irrelevant, so may the use of best of last 3 and every other automated Paceline selection process all because of TODAYS Pace of Race Match Up.

And yet...rigorous paceline selection (fully or semi-automatic) and non-contender elimination, and wager selection often involving multiple bets (e.g. 2 horses) often leads to consistent hits and positive ROI.

Go figure. It just works. As does the visual Match Up, for those who can apply it.

This is the RDSS Forum. RDSS can use a fairly automated paceline selection strategy outlined by Doc in later Follow Ups and various variations thereof. RDSS is also the way Richie presented almost all of the Match Up teaching material in the Hat Check Forum, with Jim Bradshaw's blessing. The colour coding, Tandem presentation, moves against the pace, etc. And more to come.

I'm away for 3 days. Please everyone play nice in the meantime...

Ted

[Bill V.]

From Doc running on automation





From inside back cover of Follow Up 71

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by clore1030

I find it interesting that even if we were to examine all of the horses in this particular race, the question of which line to use for "Galan Fete" will never be answered or necessary - as Mike mentioned earlier, the horse was scratched.

May I suggest that perhaps a similar exercise be offered with a race that has yet to occur, where we can at least be able to double-check whether the one line picked (which is different than which lines were considered to determine the one used) was somewhat properly predictive? Not necessarily as whether one had the winner, but whether one accurately assessed the pace of the race.

Ernie,

That sounds like a great idea! You could start one, or I will in a few days when I get back.

Ted

[davesnew]

I pretty much do as this post says. For me it simplifies picking the paceline because what I have found is if I don't have a consistent method I start "outguessing" myself on what line to use. There are times I get so wound up in the right paceline I never get the race handicapped. The race runs and I am still sitting there debating if I am using the correct line or not. The only thing I have noticed in these threads is not much is talked about for qualified workouts. I use 90 days unless there has been a qualified workout.
DaveS