First Day Using Software - Pace and Cap

JeffH · 08-23-2010, 05:08 AM

I spent about 8 hours working with the program Sunday (first day of using it). There were a ton of low priced winners that day. I read about hiding horses in Bill V's post and the followups. For winners, I am considering using 5 contenders with the bl/bl. If 1 of my top horses is less than 5-2, I will hide it and move my 6th pick into the bl/bl. If my top 2 are less than 5-2, I will pass the race. Is this a "good" approach? I think

I'm doing ok with paceline selection. Here is a breakdown of my first day:

35 Races handicapped

1st tier winners 10, 2nd tier winners 10, 3rd tier winners 5, 4th tier winners 3

5th tier winners 5, non contender winners 2

Any feedback is appreciated!

Bill V. · 08-23-2010, 05:48 AM

Hi Jeff

That sounds like a great example of waggercapping at its finest
100% class A work

If I am reading your study work up correct.
I need to ask some further questions
You bet or tracked 35 races
hid any horse that was 5/2 or under and passed the race if
there were 2 hide horses.

Thats great --- Perfect if you want to follow Doc's guidelines
to the T>>>

If what i'm reading is correct Your greatest talent must be to pick races
with false favorites

If you bet /tracked 35 races and hid any horse that had odds under 5/2

with these results

1st tier winners 10, 2nd tier winners 10, 3rd tier winners 5, 4th tier winners 3

5th tier winners 5, non contender winners 2

that means in 35 races there were no winners that paid 5/2 or less!

That fact is the amazing point and that you found this group of 35 races is the news

Good Skill
Bill VV.

JeffH · 08-23-2010, 12:31 PM

I need to clarify some things. I tracked the races. I want to get used to the software before investing money. The contenders came from my paceline selection. I did not hide any of the horses in the breakdown, just saying that was my plan in the future. Almost all of the tier 1 horses that won would have been hidden-a lot of $4 and $5 horses yesterday. Hopefully, I can get the same results hiding horses under 5-2. In a nutshell, I was just looking for some feedback to see if I was selecting the proper pacelines based on my breakdown (because I was using this for the first time and want to be on the right track); and to see if the strategy I mentioned was a "good" one for future use. Sorry for the confusion.

One question I have is, should I move my 6th contender to the 5th tier when hiding a horse, or just leave it? Everything I've read from the Followups says to make most of your selections from the top 3 tiers, betting the 4th or 5th only if they are high odds and show "something" in the collaries.

BJennet · 10-05-2010, 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JeffH

I spent about 8 hours working with the program Sunday (first day of using it). There were a ton of low priced winners that day. I read about hiding horses in Bill V's post and the followups. For winners, I am considering using 5 contenders with the bl/bl. If 1 of my top horses is less than 5-2, I will hide it and move my 6th pick into the bl/bl. If my top 2 are less than 5-2, I will pass the race. Is this a "good" approach? I think

I'm doing ok with paceline selection. Here is a breakdown of my first day:

35 Races handicapped

1st tier winners 10, 2nd tier winners 10, 3rd tier winners 5, 4th tier winners 3

5th tier winners 5, non contender winners 2

Any feedback is appreciated!

Hi Jeff,

This is kind of a delayed response, but I was blown away by the distribution of wins by BL/BL -eerily close to the proportions of win ratio I found when investigating TE. Your ratio for the top 3 was 10,10,5, 3 and according to the long-term averages I found for TE ranks, it would have been 13,9,5,3. It's incredible how homogenous these results are. And BTW, congratulations on being so proficient with the methodology on your first day. As far as odds go, that is the tough part of the game. My experience has been that about 2/3 of races are unplayable for this reason. You really need to be patient. Best of luck.

Cheers,

B. Jennet

SilentRun · 10-05-2010, 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JeffH

One question I have is, should I move my 6th contender to the 5th tier when hiding a horse, or just leave it?

Re the above......I recommend that you DO NOT move the 6th contender to the
5th tier when hiding a horse. The horse that is hidden is being ignored for betting purposes only. It is not being eliminated from the race for it is still a viable contender. I recall that the Follow-up only mentions, "hide the low odds favorite" but I never read that you should replace the hidden horse with the 6th contender which is really a" throw out"
horse.

I think you are right on the money with the Sartin Methodology.

Ernie

JeffH · 10-06-2010, 12:10 AM

Thanks for the feedback! Since first posting my comments, I have made progress in both the usage of the software; and paceline selection. I am currently building a bankroll to make "real" bets. I will run these bets through 10/ 20 race sessions. Only then will I know for sure if I understand the methodology. I will keep everybody posted on my results.

08-23-2010, 05:08 AM	#1
JeffH AlwNW3X Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Billings, MT Posts: 33	First Day Using Software I spent about 8 hours working with the program Sunday (first day of using it). There were a ton of low priced winners that day. I read about hiding horses in Bill V's post and the followups. For winners, I am considering using 5 contenders with the bl/bl. If 1 of my top horses is less than 5-2, I will hide it and move my 6th pick into the bl/bl. If my top 2 are less than 5-2, I will pass the race. Is this a "good" approach? I think I'm doing ok with paceline selection. Here is a breakdown of my first day: 35 Races handicapped 1st tier winners 10, 2nd tier winners 10, 3rd tier winners 5, 4th tier winners 3 5th tier winners 5, non contender winners 2 Any feedback is appreciated!

08-23-2010, 05:48 AM	#2
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Skill Hi Jeff That sounds like a great example of waggercapping at its finest 100% class A work If I am reading your study work up correct. I need to ask some further questions You bet or tracked 35 races hid any horse that was 5/2 or under and passed the race if there were 2 hide horses. Thats great --- Perfect if you want to follow Doc's guidelines to the T>>> If what i'm reading is correct Your greatest talent must be to pick races with false favorites If you bet /tracked 35 races and hid any horse that had odds under 5/2 with these results 1st tier winners 10, 2nd tier winners 10, 3rd tier winners 5, 4th tier winners 3 5th tier winners 5, non contender winners 2 that means in 35 races there were no winners that paid 5/2 or less! That fact is the amazing point and that you found this group of 35 races is the news Good Skill Bill VV. Last edited by Bill V.; 08-23-2010 at 05:52 AM.

08-23-2010, 12:31 PM	#3
JeffH AlwNW3X Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Billings, MT Posts: 33	I need to clarify some things. I tracked the races. I want to get used to the software before investing money. The contenders came from my paceline selection. I did not hide any of the horses in the breakdown, just saying that was my plan in the future. Almost all of the tier 1 horses that won would have been hidden-a lot of $4 and $5 horses yesterday. Hopefully, I can get the same results hiding horses under 5-2. In a nutshell, I was just looking for some feedback to see if I was selecting the proper pacelines based on my breakdown (because I was using this for the first time and want to be on the right track); and to see if the strategy I mentioned was a "good" one for future use. Sorry for the confusion. One question I have is, should I move my 6th contender to the 5th tier when hiding a horse, or just leave it? Everything I've read from the Followups says to make most of your selections from the top 3 tiers, betting the 4th or 5th only if they are high odds and show "something" in the collaries. Last edited by JeffH; 08-23-2010 at 12:38 PM.

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10-06-2010, 12:10 AM	#6
JeffH AlwNW3X Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Billings, MT Posts: 33	Thanks for the feedback! Since first posting my comments, I have made progress in both the usage of the software; and paceline selection. I am currently building a bankroll to make "real" bets. I will run these bets through 10/ 20 race sessions. Only then will I know for sure if I understand the methodology. I will keep everybody posted on my results.