It's OBVIOUS, really -- CD-6-12-10 - Pace and Cap

tfm · 06-17-2010, 09:55 PM

It's apparent after a quick glance at the charts for the day that there was a PRONOUNCED SPEED BIAS at CD on June 12, 2010. With the exception of Blame's HUGE against the grain run in the Stephen Foster and the off the turf last race of the day, every other dirt race was won on the front end -either by the leader or a horse within 1/2 length of the lead early. (The 5th race, a baby 4.5F event, went 1-2 around the track.)

So, while Rachel Alexandra ran FAST again, she also got the perfect track for her running style. Will be interesting to see how those that benefited from the track bias run in the future.

gandalf380 · 06-18-2010, 11:40 AM

I don't think this was obvious at all. Seven out of eight dirt races were won by favorites who happened to be frontrunners. All this indicates is that the crowd correctly handicapped the races and appears that the races were obvious mismatches. Not a good day to bet dirt races. To determine a true track bias, one must also look at the prices. All favorites winning indicates that there was a standout in each race. After all, favorites win approximately 1/3 of the time and today the favorite or second favorite won seven of eight races. Speed bias--no.

classhandicapper · 06-20-2010, 09:44 AM

I thought this was one of those days where we are going to have to wait to see how some of the horses come back to be certain about the track.

Even though most of the horses that won were fairly logical, it's still very unusual for such a parade of speed to dominate. Plus, one of the horses was not favored.

06-18-2010, 11:40 AM	#2
gandalf380 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: central islip ny Posts: 1,196	I don't think this was obvious at all. Seven out of eight dirt races were won by favorites who happened to be frontrunners. All this indicates is that the crowd correctly handicapped the races and appears that the races were obvious mismatches. Not a good day to bet dirt races. To determine a true track bias, one must also look at the prices. All favorites winning indicates that there was a standout in each race. After all, favorites win approximately 1/3 of the time and today the favorite or second favorite won seven of eight races. Speed bias--no. __________________ Check out my daily picks for Saratoga in the Saratoga Special http://www.thisishorseracing.com

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06-20-2010, 09:44 AM	#3
classhandicapper AlwNW3X Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 47	I thought this was one of those days where we are going to have to wait to see how some of the horses come back to be certain about the track. Even though most of the horses that won were fairly logical, it's still very unusual for such a parade of speed to dominate. Plus, one of the horses was not favored.