Penn Natl Race 5 12/18

[shoeless]

Justin and FTL even though you disagree very good posts by both of you

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by shoeless

Justin and FTL even though you disagree very good posts by both of you

Its not disagreeing Jeff...its ones opinion

[Bill Lyster]

Justin:

I forgot these last questions in my first question post awhile back.

First question has to do with the use of lines from recent maiden win horses. The Hat did not appear to want to use maiden lines.

I understand the need to use the maiden win line when its from last out. And I know we basically learn how the horse wins (E, P, S type) from that race. But in reviewing lines after maiden wins for "Oh so long" (back off Mike) few really advance off those lines, most regress.

So the situation is, with respect to your earlier guidelines, what line do you use when the best of last four (and the other guidlines) puts you on the maiden win?

Part Two: The maiden won and then improved (by any standard) but the improvement race is not at today's distance. Use the improved line or not? Why or why not? I know it sounds like common sense, but I want to hear it from the actual user instead of doing my own variation.

Much thanks you have crystallized the process for me greatly by your posts on this subject,


Bill

[justin13892002]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Justin:

I forgot these last questions in my first question post awhile back.

First question has to do with the use of lines from recent maiden win horses. The Hat did not appear to want to use maiden lines.

I understand the need to use the maiden win line when its from last out. And I know we basically learn how the horse wins (E, P, S type) from that race. But in reviewing lines after maiden wins for "Oh so long" (back off Mike) few really advance off those lines, most regress.

So the situation is, with respect to your earlier guidelines, what line do you use when the best of last four (and the other guidlines) puts you on the maiden win?

Part Two: The maiden won and then improved (by any standard) but the improvement race is not at today's distance. Use the improved line or not? Why or why not? I know it sounds like common sense, but I want to hear it from the actual user instead of doing my own variation.

Much thanks you have crystallized the process for me greatly by your posts on this subject,


Bill

Bill,

I have been working on this approach for sometime, and just recently found a passage-way that works MUCH of the time. I will continue to refine the line choice, to try to better the model. At the present time, its very simple. I choose the most recent race at todays distance as the line, as long as it was in the last 4 races. If the horse hasn't raced at todays distance, I use the line in which the horse posted the top beyer.

I am kind of confused why Jim didnt like to use Maiden win lines. He said he NEVER looks at class, so it shouldn't be an issue what class the horse posted the race at. I mean its obvious claimers will probably run faster fractions that Maidens, so based on the 1st off Maiden win, the horse will probably be eliminated anyways.

I will continue to post the full approach, so some can study it a bit more. I do not use E/S/P until down to final 2 or 3, in which I will see whether the race will be run Early or OTE, and then make the selection. The method has posted a FLAT BET win profit betting TOP CHOICE only to win EVERYDAY for the past 2 1/2 weeks. Just imagine what a little refining can do. Thats kind of WHY I decided to show my cards. It seems you all here are experts on pace handicapping, so I'd figure you all could help refine the method some.

Thanks for your interest Bill!

Justin

[boulder]

Justin, First Post, This is the best site where people try to help each other. (Bar None) I really enjoyed Richie P. Tutorials and now you and Mike challenging . I think this is great. Keep up the good work. Thanks Bryan

[Bill Lyster]

Thanks Justin:

With my overall record being considered a pace expert seems a long ways off. I am striving to get my selections more centered and consistent, so all help is appreciated. My questions are coming from my interpretation of what I understood from Jim's writings, so the more you post the quicker it will sink in. Keep it coming as you have the ability to post.

In talking with one other member of this forum some time back he advocated (paraphrasing here) using the best of any races run in the last 30 days and using the last line when there was only one race in the past 30 days, but not if that one line represented the horse's worst past performance. Other than that little bit of latitude his method of line selection is much like yours.

Continued success,

Bill L

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by boulder

Justin, First Post, This is the best site where people try to help each other. (Bar None) I really enjoyed Richie P. Tutorials and now you and Mike challenging . I think this is great. Keep up the good work. Thanks Bryan

First ...Welcome to P & C Bryan

Second...theres lots to read and learn...patients is needed

Third... We dont have a clue what were doing...

good luck

mike

[justin13892002]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Thanks Justin:

With my overall record being considered a pace expert seems a long ways off. I am striving to get my selections more centered and consistent, so all help is appreciated. My questions are coming from my interpretation of what I understood from Jim's writings, so the more you post the quicker it will sink in. Keep it coming as you have the ability to post.

In talking with one other member of this forum some time back he advocated (paraphrasing here) using the best of any races run in the last 30 days and using the last line when there was only one race in the past 30 days, but not if that one line represented the horse's worst past performance. Other than that little bit of latitude his method of line selection is much like yours.

Continued success,

Bill L

Bill,

I will post when I can. There wasn't much going on today race wise, so only actually bet like 3 races, during my breaks at work. Here is a race that ran today. I will post a race in the morning for tomorrow also.


12/21

Calder

Race 2

1- No races at todays distance in last 4. Will use best beyer.
2- The line is 3 back, at todays distance.
3- No races at todays distance in last 4, will use best beyer.
4- No races at todays distance in last 4, will use best beyer.
5- Last out was at todays distance.
6- The line is 2 back, at todays distance.
7- No races at todays distance in last 4, will use best beyer.


1---47.01----106.73---Even, but this race is at 5.5 Furlongs.
2---46.80----113.45---Lost 10
3---46.25----113.79---Lost 3, Set the Pace
4---47.79----112.49---Lost 3
5---46.93----114.43---Gained 1
6---46.73----113.19---Even, Set the Pace
7---46.99----114.09---Gained 4, Press The Pace


Eliminations will be 3 due to the loss of lengths at the 3rd slowest pace. Next elimination is the 5, who gained only 1 length against the slowest pace. Next elimination will be the 2, who lost 10 lengths against a mediocre pace.

Leaves top 4 of 1-4-6-7.

Many would ask why keep the 1. Well the average seconds for 1 furlong is around 6 to 6.5 seconds. That would make the 6 Furlong time on the 1 of around 112.73 or so.

With the remaining horses left, I would say to kick out the 4. The 1st 4 furlongs was the slowest in the field, and horse lost 3 lengths. Is actually the only Top 4 horse to lose lengths.

Top 3 would be 1-6-7.

The 1 is a horse that NEEDS the lead. May not get the lead the horse needs to win, but will be up front early. The 6 needs an even bigger lead to hang on. Last out can be excused due to the turf, but will def be near the lead early. The 7 is a Press/Stalker. The horse has a kick late. With all the early speed in here, this one could be the one to catch.

SELECTION 7 With 1-6



The race finished 6-7-1.

[mikesal57]

Excellent Justin....

p.s- does your boss know that u bet while on the job!!! nononono

lol

mike

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by justin13892002

Bill,



I am kind of confused why Jim didnt like to use Maiden win lines. He said he NEVER looks at class, so it shouldn't be an issue what class the horse posted the race at. I mean its obvious claimers will probably run faster fractions that Maidens, so based on the 1st off Maiden win, the horse will probably be eliminated anyways.


Justin

HAT used ALL running lines to pick his horses and he did use Class