Wipe-Outs

[tfm]

8/06

WO, R4

#3, Step On Up.

[tfm]

2nd as the 1:1 chalk

[tfm]

AP R5, #6, Red Wine

coming off a sloppy dirt track wipe-out in a maiden claimer at CD, and a claim from Assman; now trying poly

[Tim Y]

Because a horse beat the match up ONCE is no guarantee that that one will meet anythig close to that match up again. Could be easier, could be far more difficult.

I beat the Pirates by a wide margin. That doesn't mean I will beat the Padres next out. Different match ups

[noddub62]

Aren't "wipe outs" about the same as William Scott's Big Win? Winning by 3 or 4 lengths?

Bud

[For The Lead]

I'm going to have to agree with Tim Y.

The winner of the race accomplished the feat because it was the best based on the "match ups" in that race.
Now we all know that there will never be another race like the race the horse just won. With that in mind, how can a person just "dive in" thinking that a horse, coming off the winning race described, can beat today's match up when you don't know what today's match ups are?
You don't have to be a "matcher" in order to do this. RDSS or any of the Sartin software can give you the picture. Of course, everyone may not get the same picture because of line selection or contender selection, which is the case in every race.

[gl45]

also, that doesn't mean I will be losing to the Padres next out.

[RichieP]

There is definitely something TFM has latched onto.

First he ain't playing chalks so tracking them and betting them are 2 different animals.

Second he has hit some "impossible" longshots with a good degree of regularity as P&C selections area isn't the only "spot" the big man frequents.

Looks like he is finding special horses and playing therm back against fields who for the most part in todays racing are made up of garbage and also rans there to just fill a race.

It ain't all about speed figures and who is the "fastest horse" when TFM looks at a race.

[tfm]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

I'm going to have to agree with Tim Y.

The winner of the race accomplished the feat because it was the best based on the "match ups" in that race.
Now we all know that there will never be another race like the race the horse just won. With that in mind, how can a person just "dive in" thinking that a horse, coming off the winning race described, can beat today's match up when you don't know what today's match ups are?

How would Tim know? Last time we 'hooked' up he incorrectly identified a selection I had made as a 'hanger'. The horse won and paid $18. Here's someone picking 4 to 5 horses each race. Sounds like a man with an opinion.

He, and probably everyone here other than Richie, has no idea what I'm doing or what this angle really is. Looking at INDIVIDUAL running lines is not the best way to get the BIG PICTURE. This thread is just one way to try to get this point across.

We're only two days in. We have quite a while to go.

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by tfm

How would Tim know? Last time we 'hooked' up he incorrectly identified a selection I had made as a 'hanger'. The horse won and paid $18. Here's someone picking 4 to 5 horses each race. Sounds like a man with an opinion.

He, and probably everyone here other than Richie, has no idea what I'm doing or what this angle really is. Looking at INDIVIDUAL running lines is not the best way to get the BIG PICTURE. This thread is just one way to try to get this point across.

We're only two days in. We have quite a while to go.

“How” Tim Y knows really wasn’t relevant to me. The point was simply that his opinion and my opinion were the same, however, I gave a handicapping reason for my opinion rather than a baseball analogy.
Initially my inquiry was in an effort to learn what a “wipe out” horse was. In over 40 years of handicapping I had never seen that terminology until some recent postings here. If your response to my inquiry was not complete, then I apologize for a premature observation. Perhaps a clearer and more detailed response would lead to a different conclusion.
I have seen hundreds of spot plays that produced a profit over 5,000 trials(most don’t even make it that far), only to see that same spot play completely fall apart over the next 5,000 trials, to the point where the total of the 10,000 trials were negative and never recovered again.
So do you have a long way to go? I would say ‘yes’. And good luck to you.