7/5 Arlington 2ND - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

Bill V. · 07-06-2009, 08:29 AM

Morning Mike
I did see the race Nice call on the 7 OTE
I had a show bet on the 8@ like 30/1

Donnie · 07-06-2009, 08:32 AM

Mike--
quick question. Do you find the synthetics kinder to the match-up over the dirt? Or is there no difference?

mikesal57 · 07-06-2009, 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donnie

Mike--
quick question. Do you find the synthetics kinder to the match-up over the dirt? Or is there no difference?

Donnie...

My answer would be yes.... I try to stay with sprints under 7 furs ( no maidens..if I do bet its just a small action bet)

what I would do is..

take any track...go to drf.com and look at the pdf results of the past few days(make sure track wasn't off) and try to analyze how the tracks playing

cap a day or 2 and just watch..

get a handle on whats going on and then give it a whirl

I'll tell you, I cant do well at all in my home tracks at NY...but maybe because there r easier ones elsewhere

gl

mike

shrink1 · 07-06-2009, 10:00 AM

Mike,
Great call on the 3. Iboxed my 5 with the 3 for a nice 110.00 exacta. Thanks for your insight it was very helpful for me with the matchup.
Ira

mikesal57 · 07-06-2009, 10:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shrink1

Mike,
Great call on the 3. Iboxed my 5 with the 3 for a nice 110.00 exacta. Thanks for your insight it was very helpful for me with the matchup.
Ira

nice going Ira....

i wish I could have play some exactas with my picks here ...but I got burnt so many times in the past

one day

mike

mikesal57 · 07-06-2009, 10:40 AM

Guys ...

The match-up isnt that hard if you apply it to certain races...

there are plenty of sprints( 5, 5 1/2 , 6 , 6 1/2 ) claiming , allow, races out there..my weakness is routes

give it we will never be a genius like the Hat, but we can certainly find races and /or tracks that we can get comfortable with and win..

read The 5 Step Approach

label horses E-S-P
project 1c and 2c times from the early horses
determine if race is "early" or "ote"

then eliminate horses that cant win vs the projected times
no-form
"mars" horses that always come from far out of it

I'm sure that you will be left with possibly 2 or 3 horses in each race

mike

PeteC · 07-06-2009, 10:48 AM

Way to go Mike! This one is a reminder of something posted here many times: You've got to look "left" (on the lead vs 22 and 45) while everyone else is looking "right" (finish position).

You did and nailed it! Great job.

mikesal57 · 07-06-2009, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PeteC

Way to go Mike! This one is a reminder of something posted here many times: You've got to look "left" (on the lead vs 22 and 45) while everyone else is looking "right" (finish position).

You did and nailed it! Great job.

Thxs Pete..

as long as "Joe Public" keeps using Beyers ...we'll have the edge

mike

Donnie · 07-06-2009, 01:03 PM

Thanks for the response Mike!

Never did well at HOL until they went poly....now I like it.

Modeling the track is no problem. I use HTR and with the push of a button I can survey the last 10 winning lines for any dist/surf.

I am currently getting back to basics. Used to use pace pretty extensively, moved a bit away from it, but now re-incorporating it back into my style. Hence, you'll see me in and out of discussions and asking questions and reading and re-reading.

Appreciate your insights!

BOL!
-Donnie

07-06-2009, 10:40 AM	#16
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	Guys ... The match-up isnt that hard if you apply it to certain races... there are plenty of sprints( 5, 5 1/2 , 6 , 6 1/2 ) claiming , allow, races out there..my weakness is routes give it we will never be a genius like the Hat, but we can certainly find races and /or tracks that we can get comfortable with and win.. read The 5 Step Approach label horses E-S-P project 1c and 2c times from the early horses determine if race is "early" or "ote" then eliminate horses that cant win vs the projected times no-form "mars" horses that always come from far out of it I'm sure that you will be left with possibly 2 or 3 horses in each race mike __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

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07-06-2009, 08:29 AM	#11
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	Morning Mike I did see the race Nice call on the 7 OTE I had a show bet on the 8@ like 30/1

07-06-2009, 08:32 AM	#12
Donnie AlwNW1X Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 5	Mike-- quick question. Do you find the synthetics kinder to the match-up over the dirt? Or is there no difference?

07-06-2009, 10:00 AM	#14
shrink1 Grade 1 Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Newton, N.J. Posts: 121	Mike, Great call on the 3. Iboxed my 5 with the 3 for a nice 110.00 exacta. Thanks for your insight it was very helpful for me with the matchup. Ira

07-06-2009, 10:48 AM	#17
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Way to go Mike! This one is a reminder of something posted here many times: You've got to look "left" (on the lead vs 22 and 45) while everyone else is looking "right" (finish position). You did and nailed it! Great job.

07-06-2009, 01:03 PM	#19
Donnie AlwNW1X Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 5	Thanks for the response Mike! Never did well at HOL until they went poly....now I like it. Modeling the track is no problem. I use HTR and with the push of a button I can survey the last 10 winning lines for any dist/surf. I am currently getting back to basics. Used to use pace pretty extensively, moved a bit away from it, but now re-incorporating it back into my style. Hence, you'll see me in and out of discussions and asking questions and reading and re-reading. Appreciate your insights! BOL! -Donnie