How looking back on lost races can mess with our “intuition” – Part II

[Vinnie]

I hope that you are doing well? I read your post and I hope that you don't mind me adding my two cents. You know something, you are going to "lose races". Everyone is going to lose races! Even the Greatest handicapper in the world "if there ever was such a thing"? I don't believe there ever has been is going to lose races. I have had so many days where I am playing the PIC 4 or any other form of wager where I will win three in a row, and Bam, I get beat by a nose in the fourth race, often at a price to boot. Did I get beat because I handicapped the race wrong? Probably not. It just wasn't my day to get that fourth race in the sequence. That is the way that I have always looked at it anyhow. I have always looked at it as pretty solid handicapping when my contender(s) in a race are getting beat in the final jump on a given race. It could be because of traffic that was encountered while entering the stretch to make that final timely run, or it could have been any number of other things that a horse encountered during the trip around the oval on that particular race day that somehow managed to produce a negative result for that individual race. I was pretty much all over that race, but, I just got beat. You know how the saying goes, there is only one way to win a race, and that is by crossing the wire before all of the other participants. As a matter of fact in that race you mentioned, I really liked the #6 Fluke to possibly take the race right up on the front end, however, I also liked the #1 Baletti to come up and get him late in case he faultered even a bit. As it turned out this was a good call as #1 Baletti came on late and caught him by nearly a length at the wire and they finished 1-2 for a nice $2 Exacta of $102.50.

Don't let yourself dwell too much on that last race if the outcome was a negative one. Move forward to the next one and crush that race.
Keep doing what has made you successful, and when you lose, forget about that race and move on to the next one.

Like Michael Pizzola, at least I believe that this quote can be attributed to him once said "Some Will, Some Won't, So What"; Next"!! Some will run like you project them to. Some won't run like you projected they will in today's race. So What! Forget about that race that doesn't pan out as you thought or projected that it would. Next! Move onward and upward to the next race and do what you know makes you successful with a renewed vigor and positive outlook and approach while at the same time maintaining a clear and open mind.

Good Skill to you Marc, and all the BEST!

Vinnie