|
|
|
|
|
|||||||
| Google Site Search | Get RDSSGet RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Today's Posts | Search |
| Matchup Discussion Matchup Discussion and Practice |
 |
|
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
05-21-2009, 07:56 PM
|
#31 |
|
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
|
 No bar room brawl 
__________________
"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" |
|
|
|
05-21-2009, 08:06 PM
|
#32 |
|
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,491
|
Richie:
Could you post the velocity screen from the last race at Hollywood using the horses in your last posted screen shot and line 1 from Horse 7 please. I didn't download the card, just played from your screenshots. Thanks and I Appreciate it |
|
|
|
|
05-21-2009, 08:42 PM
|
#33 |
|
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
|
Well guys i didn't get the winner, but i enjoyed taking part and
 to allwho make these type of threads interesting with thier pre-race analysis.
__________________
"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" |
|
|
|
|
05-21-2009, 10:16 PM
|
#34 |
|
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 311
|
Total energy rules at HOL
With all the E types in this race, I also thought it would run as a 'match-up' race until I ran the download. None of the OTE horses were in the top 3 TE, AFAIK. It's very hard to win at either SA or HOL without it. Hard, in fact, even to win as #3 TE. I've been tracking this and a few other stats at various tracks and been blown away by the dominance of TE at HOL. For example, during 5/14-5/17 last week, 13 out of the 16 races I checked were won there by either #1 or #2 TE, two by #3, one by #4. This is using typical Sartin filters of best of last three at comparable distance and surface, and also filtering out maidens and 3yos races.
BTW in this race the #7 was the 2nd ranked TE, winning at 9.5-1, a good example of why the Methodology is so great. Cheers, B Jennet |
|
|
|
|
05-21-2009, 10:56 PM
|
#35 |
|
MC 4000
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Bronx NY
Posts: 31
|
I had the #1 in this race. I expected the #1 and #7 to battle for the lead. The 1 beat the 7 in the 24Apr09 Hol 6 tandem, and appeared to have a slight edge over the 7 when I compared the other lines. I'm surprised that the #1 didn't fire. He led at the first call in 8 out of his last 10 races.
Marc |
|
|
|
|
05-22-2009, 01:15 AM
|
#36 | |
|
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 311
|
Me too
Quote:
I looked at the race exactly the same way, and was surprised the 1 didn't run better. As far as the tandem thing goes though, H. Sartin often pointed out how often tandem horses at the same class level often traded wins. I had the #1 as top TE. Actually 1 & 7 were very close, and at those odds you could have played both to win, and put both under the 6 in exactas. The way I play, I just would have played the 7 to win and put him under the 10 and 6 in exactas. Cheers, B Jennet |
|
|
|
|
|
05-22-2009, 04:20 AM
|
#37 | |
|
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,019
|
Quote:
|
|
|
|
|
|
05-22-2009, 07:51 AM
|
#38 | |
|
MC 4000
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Bronx NY
Posts: 31
|
Quote:
If the odds are right, I'll bet two horses if I've narrowed the race down to two and can't figure out who is best. But in this case, I truly felt that the #1 was better and would not have bet two horses. Could you please explain what TE is? I don't have a Sartin background and am unfamiliar with the concept. I use only printed past performances at this early stage in my match-up education. I feel I should learn how to match-up with pencil and paper first, just as one should learn how to do arithmetic manually before using a calculator. Eventually I'll use software, probably RDSS because it was designed to accomodate the matchers on this site. It would save a lot of time. For now, I'll stick with printed PP's until it becomes second nature to me. Regards, Marc |
|
|
|
|
|
05-22-2009, 01:10 PM
|
#39 | |
|
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 311
|
Wager value
Quote:
TE is total energy. If you look at Richie's screen shot, you should be able to locate it. I understand the idea of feeling stronger about one horse than another, but you might consider thinking about racing in terms of 'wager value'. Let's use this race as an example. Let's say in this race you made the #1 5/2 (.28 win probability) and the #7 4-1 (.20 win probability). The #1 has a wager value of .484, which is very good, but the has a wager value of 1.1 - twice as good. Of course, you could just bet the #1, which is an overlay but you would be leaving money on table by not playing the #7, if you considered him only a slightly worse alternative. However if you had thrown him out, there was no reason to bet. On my numbers, though, they were very close. If you want to investigate the concept of wager value, Dick Mitchell's 'Commonsense Betting' discusses it in detail, along with a great deal of other useful material. It's out of print but you should be able to find it on the internet. Cheers, B Jennet |
|
|
|
|
|
05-22-2009, 01:51 PM
|
#40 |
|
Grade 3
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 70
|
Hi Richie, don't know if you downloaded Chruchill Downs today but if you did the 1st race only has 7 horses but 5 of them are E, or EP .. actually I think its maybe 4 or 5 true E's and 1 or 2 Ep's and a 2 Sustained. Thought you might find it interesting, if you are online. The race runs at 2:45.
Doug |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Similar Threads
|
||||
| Thread | Thread Starter | Forum | Replies | Last Post |
| Hollywood Short Term Track Profile | RichieP | Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum | 0 | 05-16-2009 08:13 AM |
| Hollywood 5/7 Matching | RichieP | RDSS | 6 | 05-07-2009 09:26 PM |
| Hollywood Cash Call Futurity | RichieP | RDSS | 7 | 12-21-2008 02:31 AM |
| Hollywood Park? | Vinnie | Selections | 11 | 11-17-2008 09:18 AM |
| Hollywood Poly | lsosa54 | Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum | 3 | 10-31-2008 10:12 AM |
|
Linear Mode
