The predictive e/l balance

[xtb]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

here is another that the e/l promoted as posted at alums last year

"Emma Jayne has a shot to steal the Queen's Plate tomorrow with Mike
Fox but Jiggs Coz and Wakefield will be running at her late. The two
year old champ Leonnatus had % medians that look like a turfer or 12
furlong colt.....


let's see how it goes."


Paid over 30 dollars

and one of the advocates who had substantiated that same study responded:

"Great call! My only wager of the day - after watching the claimers in
the race prior to the Queens Plate run the half in 44.1 and finish 6.5f
in 115.99, only .06 off the track record, it was clear the fix was on
for the speed to have a chance to win the Plate. The 2C horses ran
1,2,3! tk

or a third e/l devotee piped in:

"This is # 4 - another Tip from you, that I did not listen too.

Nice picking, I would like to pick your brain sometime about this pick.

Please let me know when you are free to chat.

Jack"

Not saying that there isn't anything to your e/l but it's not the only way to win. Winning examples mean nothing if you aren't also showing the losers, I'm sure you and your buddies don't crow when it fails.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by xtb

Not saying that there isn't anything to your e/l but it's not the only way to win. Winning examples mean nothing if you aren't also showing the losers, I'm sure you and your buddies don't crow when it fails.

NEVER said that: it has to be used when it is apparent that it is relevant

[Bill V.]

[QUOTE=Tim Y;46388]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Charlie .. I will
This is the heart of the Sartin Methodology

Its all mainstream The crowd loves this , Early is were its at.. Look for early
The horse will go out to the lead and never look back
Mainstream

Bill I am afraid that you don't even have mainstream correctly: they are all POSTIONISTS not energy distribution advocates

That is true The mainstream is looking at 1's and 2's in the DRF
Not the amount of difference between the horse early and late energy
BTW

Good Job with race 2 from Aqu
Tim Putting in your same lines from race 2
Using The Sartin Methodology Program endourced
by Howard Satin in the val 4 mode

Line
Horse 1 lines 1-3 Line 4 is out 15 Beaten Lengths in the mud!
Horse 2 Line 1
Horse 3 Line 3
Horse 5 Line 1-3 Line 3 is out 11 Beaten Lengths
Horse 6 Line 1
Horse 7 Line 1-3
Horse 8 Line 1
horse 10 line 1 Out over 7.5 Beaten Lengths

Hiding to the top 5 Primary/ Total Energy
the first hide is line 1 for the 7 as line 3 is better
the next hide is the 2
the next hide is the 8

My final contenders using your pacelines using val 4 as
per Doc's guidelines are
3 5 1 7 6

VDC readout has
3-1
5-2
1-3
7-2
6-5

The winner of the race is # 6 $11.00
No matter how I do the race the winner is not in my top 5
Very well done. I am wrong in this case

Bill

[xtb]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

NEVER said that: it has to be used when it is apparent that it is relevant

Like many things, it works! (except when it doesn't).

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by xtb

Like many things, it works! (except when it doesn't).

As per usual your miss the point of how it is used: IT is a race to race, day to day observation ONLY BROUGHT TO PROMINANCE when that day's results prompt you to make it mainstream.

As for the colts streching out, it is accurate all the time.

Wait until the Derby colts start sorting themselves out

[Tim Y]

[QUOTE=Bill V.;46398]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

That is true The mainstream is looking at 1's and 2's in the DRF
Not the amount of difference between the horse early and late energy
BTW

Good Job with race 2 from Aqu
Tim Putting in your same lines from race 2
Using The Sartin Methodology Program endourced
by Howard Satin in the val 4 mode

Line
Horse 1 lines 1-3 Line 4 is out 15 Beaten Lengths in the mud!
Horse 2 Line 1
Horse 3 Line 3
Horse 5 Line 1-3 Line 3 is out 11 Beaten Lengths
Horse 6 Line 1
Horse 7 Line 1-3
Horse 8 Line 1
horse 10 line 1 Out over 7.5 Beaten Lengths

Hiding to the top 5 Primary/ Total Energy
the first hide is line 1 for the 7 as line 3 is better
the next hide is the 2
the next hide is the 8

My final contenders using your pacelines using val 4 as
per Doc's guidelines are
3 5 1 7 6

VDC readout has
3-1
5-2
1-3
7-2
6-5

The winner of the race is # 6 $11.00
No matter how I do the race the winner is not in my top 5
Very well done. I am wrong in this case

Bill

one of the main reason I abandonded Validator: it locks you into a specific way of looking at a race and leaves no room for alternate logic as the e.l shows here

[Bill V.]

Funny thing Tim
Thats exactly why I stay with Validator

If I worked races like you I would be broke because I don't have your
ability to interpret
What works for each user is the most important
Thanks for your work ups. I am finding it very helpful, We all are going to have
some loses in our 20 race cycle, Doing some post mortem as Doc suggest
I find your work here refreshing as to perhaps reasons why loses while following guidelines still happen
Please continue but also please once again refer to the Pace and Cap
code of conduct and treat my and your fellow guest in my
house with respect and they will do the same to you

[bobp]

I for one would be interested to hear how any of you in the above discussion consider
how these would apply in your equation

1. class drops
2. recency
3. previous race on this course
4. top 5 trainer at this course in this race
5. record keeping for the course you play

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by bobp

I for one would be interested to hear how any of you in the above discussion consider
how these would apply in your equation

1. class drops HORSES DONT KNOW WHO THEY ARE RUNNING AGAINST
2. recency doesn't matter speed is either ON or OFF
3. previous race on this course
4. top 5 trainer at this course in this race HORSE is running not trainer
5. record keeping for the course you play

THE KEY is the fifth one


The early/late is all about the HORSE'S energy distribution and is INHERENT to the physiology under stress of pace pressure

[Tim Y]

This data was accumulated and evaluated in complete absence of any factor that the HORSE did not do.

Horses do the running. Situational pace stress can alter energy distribution but is ultimately INNATE to the animal and not much else other than when a bias aides/hinders that expression.

They win/lose based upon THEIR effort, THEIR form cycle, THEIR physiology, THEIR genetic expression of energy distribution. One cannot adequately evaluate anything else objectively but the innate hard wired expression of energy distribution via segmental velocity, which is there all the time, and doesn't vary much other than the top 1% of animals that we called champions: they adapt to anything.

Overlying a subsidiary human element will not change the inherent nature of the horse.