Brohamer

[shoeless]

Bill,Your a good guy with a good heart,sorry I went over the deep end awhile back.Jeff

[Terry Riggs]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

The impression you give is not the above Tim, i'm afraid, in fact, i'd say you give the impression of blinkered and unreceptive to other peoples ideas and opinions

Let me say I've learned a lot by all of you sharing your victories and defeats here at Pace and Cap. Thanks to all of you.

Charlie D, I agree 100%
It's not what you don't know that matters
It's what you know that just isn't SO that matters!

It's just a horse race.

Terry

[BladeRunner]

After reading your posts about energy I would like to know if you make energy profile of the tracks you play. I am trying to learn about energy demand of the track and how to make them. Which FU should I read ?

Raman

[BladeRunner]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

I'm very happy you are doing well

keep that feeling and never let go
it will spill over to your total life

Bill

Thanks Bill. You should be a Motivational Speaker.

Raman

[Bill V.]

Thats me with my head down in the video
I no longer act like that
I learned to win and enjoy my life
All I want is for people to find the key
Somehow I met Richie, Richie hooked me up with Doc
then he led me to make Pace and Cap
We met each other and were all sitting at our table

Listen to Doc speak at the beginning of my
Video His words and what he writes in the follow up
are what motivates me to help
Doc's words and thoughts Doobie Bros music

Bill

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by BladeRunner

After reading your posts about energy I would like to know if you make energy profile of the tracks you play. I am trying to learn about energy demand of the track and how to make them. Which FU should I read ?

Raman

I never found a FU that addressed the way I profile. At EACH track, at EACH DIRT distance (doesn't work well for turf), I record the e/l of the winner from the line(s) I used to enter them. NO differentiation for sex, surface changes (muddy etc which tend to be more positive anyway) or age as it has not shown to be statistically significant other than two year olds which are MUCH more positive at each distance.

i.e. Tampa Bay's e/l average for 6 furlongs is about +10 whereas Hawthorne is lower at +6.0, whereas inner AQU or Fort Erie is can go up to +18 and still be a winner. OFTEN the e/l profile trumps the total energy especially in the cold wet courses of Northern Winters. Also, lone early horses can get away with much higher numbers and still win.

Compare that to Woodbines 8.5f profile which centers around -1.0 and others it is a bit more negative at -3.0. As the distances lengthen, the e/l averages become more negative but they are SPECIFIC to the course. I am convinced that this will help a lot with those 'horses for courses" we all know and why many a West Coast horse poops out on the differing energy requirements of East Coast tracks, AND the reason that "The graveyard of favorites" (Saratoga) gets its name as it is usually the polar opposite of the many horses winning on a differing profile coming from Belmont.

These are just AVERAGES as I keep an ongoing record, race to race, throughout the card as it can change radically (didn't pick it up last Friday at Woodbine until I had contributed quite a bit of $$$$) and biases are REAL: The day of the Wood Memorial a few years back, it was so biased early that just about EVERY horse that won that day crashed and burned next out.
Bellamy Road and Bob N John's wins had a lot to do with that bias and it showed the way they petered out in the later Triple Crown contests after being recipients of that early boost.

Remember too that in my study of e/l relativity, WITHIN REASON, the more positive the e/l, the greater chance of winning: given the choice between an Oaklawn route horse at -12 and one at -3, the latter would be much the better choice NO MATTER the total energy.

As Bill quoted and it is only too true: IT is not how fast a horse runs, but the horse runs fast.

[fasthorses]

Total energy down and % median up versus the same relative pace three races in a row, NEVER wins and is often off the board at short odds.

I think I've been consistently misinterpreting this but I want to double check.

In the case of "Total energy down...three races in a row..." I've been translating that to mean a situation where a horse, for the last three races, might have total energy figures (for the LTO, 2nd back, 3rd back) such as 168, 169, 170 - clearly declining.

However, based on those 3 races we don't know if total energy was down 3 races in a row - we can only say with certainty it was down 2 races in a row. To determine if the 170 represents a decline, we'd have to look at the 4th race back.

Tim, could you please confirm which scenario you are describing? Do we need to consider the 4th race back or only the most recent 3 races?

[Tim Y]

no hard and fast rules: last three are the minimum 165 162 159

[Tim Y]

There were several at Finger Lakes today and I will put them all up later

[fasthorses]

Tim Y,

If you get a chance to post the Finger Lakes horses you spoke of last week on 12/02, I believe many of us will find that helpful and instructional. Thank you.