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Hello Bill,
Here are some thoughts.
Sir James (Quinn) said to bet the fastest horse in two year old races. By fastest horse he meant the horse that has run the fastest in the past.
The Sheets logic is to look for explosive two year olds – ones that are about to run their fastest. For filles that means a horse who has had two races, the second a little slower than the first. For males, that means a horse who has had two races, the second a little faster than the first. There are other patterns, but those are the two biggies. Note, in neither case do you want a horse who ran much better the second time out.
Dick Mitchell said to look for the horse that is going to have the lead at the second call. “Maidens don’t pass each other.” While that’s not entirely true, it’s good enough to rate flaming generalization status.
I don’t recall which Quinn or Mitchell books those concepts came from.
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