Derby Fatchart

[tfm]

Quantify this, boys.

This is only my 2nd year of doing these but I'd never have expected a 'wipeout'.

[fasthorses]

Is there something on this site that explains the significance of this chart such as what it is based on and the correct way to interpret it?

[tfm]

It's just the graphic representation of the result chart --in PP format.

In other words, the position and lengths behind at each call, with the raw splits.

[admin]

Can you show one horse at a time ?
or compare some horses like on Kgen
I'm so color blind I can't see it to well

Thanks
Bill

[tfm]

Originally Posted by admin

Can you show one horse at a time ?
or compare some horses like on Kgen
I'm so color blind I can't see it to well

Thanks
Bill

I suppose I could (if I'd written the program that way)

But, the strength of the chart lies in putting the run of a particular horse within the context of the race. A horse doesn't run against itself and the chart allows one to see how it performed in relation to other horses.

So, pulling out an individual horse or horses that ran similarly, say, horses that happened to close in a particular race, wouldn't really tell me much as I'd want to know how the race itself shaped out.

Taking it a step further, by doing these charts, I've been able to identify different 'types' of races. As mentioned, this is an example of a 'wipeout'.

As this is an atypical race in terms of number of horses and the total beaten lengths (60 behind for the last horse) and given that there are a limited number of colors available in the module I'm using, this is a particularly difficult chart to read.

[admin]

ok Now I understand
GS

Bill

[Bill Lyster]

TFM:

I understand what you are saying about "how the race was run" - that's history. How do you apply this to events that haven't occurred yet? Does your program allow you to put in a projected pace and then enter lines from PP's that best match that pace?

Just curious and thanks for sharing.

[tfm]

Let me start by stressing that my approach to the game is contrary to that of most.

I'm a longtime trip handicapper; I also never use figures (speed or pace).

My intent, initially, in putting the charts together was to get a better sense of what was happening in terms of trips; for example, you can watch a race and observe that a horse is finishing in 'good stride', while, in fact, the horse is not really gaining in relation to the winner and just passing tired horses. The charts were meant to merely facilitate the tripping process.

What developed, however, was something unexpected.

1) I now rely somewhat on raw splits and the charts are more of a pace-chart than anything else -- it's interesting, however, though not unexpected, that I can pick out visually the slow and fast paced races just by the way the chart shapes out; moreover, as moves within a race also determine the way a given race shapes up, the charts allow me to properly comprehend races that don't 'make sense' in terms of pace.

2) As I do more charts for different tracks and surfaces, I've been able to identity a number of chart/race types. From there, I'm looking for 'unique' types on a given track/surface AND horses that ran exceptionally within the context of these types. So, for example, a horse closing in a race with 3 other horses is not as impressive as a horse that closes in a race where the top finishers were all pace setters.

Now, what's interesting here is that the same TYPE of race can have a different meaning on a given surface or track. I'm slowing working towards drawing these distinctions, as well as identifying what a exceptional effort is within the framework of a given type.

Now, let me get to your question. While I acknowledge the value of the matchup and hope to incorporate it in the future, I'm not concerned with how a particular race shapes up before the fact (allowing, of course, for extremely obvious cases). This is because the horses I focus on have already demonstrated that they can run AGAINST the grain. If they get anything remotely resembling a fair setup, they can win. The key is knowing that they're sitting on a good effort. By keeping 'historical' charts for horses, I also notice those coming into form.

So, I'm not particularly interested in how fast a horse can run, in split or final time, as horse races are not time trials. Numbers work real well in bush, speed favoring tracks, but aren't really of high value, IMO, when it comes to more complex turf and poly races. Notice, for example, the struggles by many in gauging poly performance and turf sprints.

That's the FAT way.

[Bill Lyster]

TFM:

Interesting contextual concept and it looks like a lot of work. I'm a graph kinda guy so I see where you are heading and appreciate your explanation.

Do you think that there is a way for a computer to identify/quantify the FAT chart info for integration into something like RDSS - I'm thinking that in many cases what you are defining is, in essence, The Hat's POWERMOVE in graphic format?

Bill

[tfm]

I think that if someone had the programming skill to code the different types of races and the standout trips within them, and ran them through a database, the result would be some very fruitful autoplays.