2nd call maidens

[Tim Y]

One of the BEST angles in racing. Babies tell you when they are ready to graduate by running best (relatively) to the second call in the race right before they break their maiden.

It happens everyday as these two show.
th race - Aqueduct - February 29, 2008
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
7 Pavlov's Dog 11.00 3.60 2.60
2B Justin P 2.30 2.10
5 Piazza Di Spagna 6.70

Pgm Horse Jockey Win Place Show
12 Patent Pending Tom Jose Espinoza 16.80 6.90 4.10
2 Maps Hope Carol Cedeno 7.00 4.00
9 Mr Park Avenue Ramon A. Dominguez 2.60

[Tim Y]

Prices not great but still working well.
6th race - Aqueduct - February 29, 2008
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
8 Chanced 3.50 2.40 2.10
5 Tiz the Moon 3.20 2.60
3 Fiddlers Fever 2.50

2nd race - Oaklawn Park - February 29, 2008
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
5 Black Diamond Bay 8.60 4.20 2.80
6 Midnight Illusion 3.40 2.40
1 Brother Lowell 2.60

$2 Daily Double 8-5 68.00
$2 Exacta 5-6 22.80

[dogkatcher]

Tim,, thanks for posting this valuable information. As stated these babies running their best at the second call, right before they break ther maiden, I noticed that in the first example with the horse Pavlov's Dog that the line used was his 2nd race back. Could that be because the top line was at the wrong distance? I notice you sometimes put in 2 lines but in this case you didn't. Please advise when you have a chance, thanks.

[Tim Y]

I don't do bookkeeping (hides) and you are just seeing all my thinking at once.

Also, a rule of thumb that works over 95% of the time: DON'T ever evaluate a horse based upon the THIRD line back unless the subsequent two had significant trouble or were the wrong surface.

This is especially true for maidens as they "go off the boil," and regular runners might be going off form. Always look at those other two. Any horse (Unbridled Alysheba and Giacomo before their Derbies) is allowed to stub it's toe once, not twice.

[froggy]

dogkatcher,

Pavlov's Dog's 1st race was in the slop where he also ran good to the 2nd call and then lost by 22 lengths.

Tim is right.
This is a strong one horse play.

Froggy

Froggy

[shoeless]

Tim,Thanks,I usually pass these races but will keep an eye on it.Also must say since your return I really like what you have been showing us and thanks for the personal help as well.Jeff

[Tim Y]

Didn't take long to find one "going off the boil" (#8) as the 3/2 favorite in the 7th race was going backwards at the 2nd call. I f you don't look at the subsequent lines for this one, you miss that fact. Getting slower early is not want you want to see in a maiden.

7th race - Oaklawn Park - February 29, 2008
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
1 Stevie's Lil Sis 7.60 3.80 3.00
2 Sevendaysmakeaweek 7.20 5.60
5 Elegant Scam 5.20

$2 Exacta 1-2 43.40

[RichieP]

Good stuff here man!

Positive Energy being felt. Excellent

[fasthorses]

"Babies tell you when they are ready to graduate by running best (relatively) to the second call in the race right before they break their maiden"

Tim, thank you for the "light bulb" moment. If you have time to answer a couple of questions for clarification I'd appreciate the assistance and, perhaps, others may be helped as well.

You use the term "babies" which I've always heard used in relation to 2 year olds irrespective of class. Whether or not I'm correct in my understanding of the term, from your posts I'm getting the impression you are using the term to mean maidens in general, irrespective of age. Is that correct? I don't use the program from which you've taken the snapshots but it appears to me the conditions are indicating age as 3+ on at least some of them.

By "(relatively)" do you mean the lowest calculated 2C BL for the horse in its lifetime and/or the lowest calculated 2C BL for the horse in its lifetime when the BL is also the best or close to the best in the field and/or some other standard. I can't quite discern the point at which you consider these horses as having an advantage worthy of a wager.

Thanks again for your assistance.

[Tim Y]

Non winners of 1, are babies in their abilities to run over a distance of ground. Until they mature to be able to do that, they remain maidens, FUNCTIONALLY IMMATURE.

Lifetime? Never even hinted at that.

When these babies "get it" they do that rapidly.

Horses don't read condition books: they just run and don't know what man made class they are entered in.