"The Hat's" Power Lines - Page 12 - Pace and Cap

Turbulator · 08-17-2007, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RichieP

Here is the screenshot after removing the earlies.

The 9 GAINED a position from 1c-2c with the 2c time being a full SECOND faster pace of race than anyone else. A full SECOND faster Steve.

The crowd jumped on the 3 - a 48/116 horse while the 9 is 48/113 horse. Amazing. 3 SECONDS difference at the 2c and the 9 GAINS a position into the 113.

You know something? I'm an idiot. Since I started doing this in earnest, I've been using the SECOND FRACTION in route races as the second call. So when you said the 9 is 1 full second faster at the SECOND CALL I looked at the SECOND FRACTION of 48.1 and said to myself, "what the hell is he talking about?" At that point I got up and took a walk.

Then after about 15 minutes it dawned on me.

I have NEVER looked at the SECOND CALL in a route race (the third fraction)--ever. I've always looked at the first and second fractions just like I do in a sprint.

I mean is that dumb or what. Wow. I can't believe I did that. Now I've got to rethink some things.

lsosa54 · 08-17-2007, 11:02 AM

I continue to mainly lurk and study, but this was one from yesterday. Explain to me how the winner pays $30?! I could make a "non matchup" case for the horse but I'm really trying to wipe all that stuff from my mind.

Why did the horse have long odds? Eurton is a real solid claiming/allowance trainer but typically doesn't run much on the turf, although these are his main owners. Quinonez is not one of the better known jocks. The last few speed ratings aren't tops in the field. The other trainers in the race are well known and have higher win percentages on the turf.

Check out the race 2 back - a nice race at this track and distance. Now match up power lines - 6 back it ran very competitively against the FASTEST pace of race of any horse in the field - 22 44.4 109, with a nice power move between the 2nd call and stretch, at a mile at this track.

Even though Whilly looks a bit off form, I didn't think Warrior Song would be able to do what he did 2 back at this track & distance.

I'll attach the TSN pp's and Equibase free results charts.

Still learning...............

lsosa54 · 08-17-2007, 11:04 AM

Dmr 08-16-07 R7

RichieP · 08-17-2007, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lsosa54

I continue to mainly lurk and study, but this was one from yesterday. Explain to me how the winner pays $30?!

Check out the race 2 back - a nice race at this track and distance. Now match up power lines - 6 back it ran very competitively against the FASTEST pace of race of any horse in the field - 22 44.4 109, with a nice power move between the 2nd call and stretch, at a mile at this track.

Lou,
THAT was a great call and score!

Your Power Line is just that. Powerful.
22-44.4-109
5-5-1 Positional BLAST to the sc

Very nice. VERY nice Lou

Bill Lyster · 08-17-2007, 01:43 PM

Jim:

Thanks for the clarification. I will re-study the race with your comments in mind. Really enjoy your posts.

Bill

Bill Lyster · 08-17-2007, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by winbets

In the old days of the Methodology there was a teacher who also was a teacher of Silva Mind Control. I took a modified version of the course while at a Sartin Seminar at Saratoga. I can highly recommend a Silva Mind Control course to everyone. You will not believe the state of relaxation you can achieve. Cheers

Yes, I remember and wholeheartedly agree. The reverend Bert Mayne, I believe. He also gave the course in Glendale, CA over two weekends in late 80's I think. It was very interesting. I still employ some of the concepts that he made available to us.

THE HAT · 08-20-2007, 04:02 PM

Saratoga Race Six

This race gave most of you trouble, so after I get my two horse I am going to analyze the race a little different to teach the way to make the final decision.

The Seven Eleven and Thirteen scratched. There are tandems that will help in the elimination of horses. The Two, ran in tandems and is slow, out. The One Three and Six are slow, out. The Eight was beaten by the Four, out. The Nine and Ten are from the same tandem and are slow, out. The Three and Twelve are Early, but are slower than the Four, out. This leaves the Four and Five as the main contenders. Now, how is the race going to run, Early, "or other than early?"

There are three horse that can run early in the race, the Tree, Four and Twelve. The three early horses are slower than the four, but will they have any effect on the Four? The Four needs at least a five length lead, on the turf, in order to go wire-to-wire. The Three and the Twelve can not win the race, but can prevent the Four for getting the lead he needs to win. Look at the third running line on the Four. Looking at the third running lines show what happens if the four horse does not get a comfortable lead. He can be caught.

The horse most likely to catch him is the Five. Look at positions and beaten lengths .The Five will be coming like a jet. This race will run "other than early" and the Five will win the race.

VoodooFan · 08-21-2007, 12:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by THE HAT

Saratoga Race Six
The Four needs at least a five length lead, on the turf, in order to go wire-to-wire. Look at the third running line on the Four. Looking at the third running lines show what happens if the four horse does not get a comfortable lead. He can be caught.

Is that a MIS-Print? Are you also evaluating a horse's comfort lead at every call, including the stretch?

Because only in the stretch, in that 3rd line does he have a 6 length lead before winning. VoodooFan

RichieP · 08-21-2007, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VoodooFan

Is that a MIS-Print? Are you also evaluating a horse's comfort lead at every call, including the stretch?

Because only in the stretch, in that 3rd line does he have a 6 length lead before winning. VoodooFan

There is confusion for a good reason Voodoo. Jim works from the Racing Form which shows the 4 horse from line 2 with a 5 length lead at the first FRACTION.

Ok the screenshot I put up with Rdss does NOT show the first fraction positions/beaten lengths. It starts at the first CALL. So we can NOT see what he saw there ok?

THIS is the reason for the mixup and is my bad. So this is how we will avoid mixups in the future.

When Jim is teaching/posting about a certain race or races I will post the regular PDF past performances showing exactly the same thing he sees when reading his Racing Form.

Once again I am sorry for the mixup.

Richie

Turbulator · 08-21-2007, 11:40 AM

Richie, you don't have to post this, but you might want to move these last few posts over to the thread that they are referring to.

I kept scrolling back looking for the races he was talking about, but then I remembered they were in the Saratoga thread.

08-17-2007, 11:02 AM	#112
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	Think The Match Up Doesn't Work In Small Field? I continue to mainly lurk and study, but this was one from yesterday. Explain to me how the winner pays $30?! I could make a "non matchup" case for the horse but I'm really trying to wipe all that stuff from my mind. Why did the horse have long odds? Eurton is a real solid claiming/allowance trainer but typically doesn't run much on the turf, although these are his main owners. Quinonez is not one of the better known jocks. The last few speed ratings aren't tops in the field. The other trainers in the race are well known and have higher win percentages on the turf. Check out the race 2 back - a nice race at this track and distance. Now match up power lines - 6 back it ran very competitively against the FASTEST pace of race of any horse in the field - 22 44.4 109, with a nice power move between the 2nd call and stretch, at a mile at this track. Even though Whilly looks a bit off form, I didn't think Warrior Song would be able to do what he did 2 back at this track & distance. I'll attach the TSN pp's and Equibase free results charts. Still learning............... Last edited by lsosa54; 08-25-2008 at 09:23 PM.

08-17-2007, 11:04 AM	#113
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	Here is The Results Chart Dmr 08-16-07 R7 Last edited by lsosa54; 08-25-2008 at 09:23 PM.

08-21-2007, 11:40 AM	#120
Turbulator Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 467	Richie, you don't have to post this, but you might want to move these last few posts over to the thread that they are referring to. I kept scrolling back looking for the races he was talking about, but then I remembered they were in the Saratoga thread. __________________

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08-17-2007, 01:43 PM	#115
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,498	Jim: Thanks for the clarification. I will re-study the race with your comments in mind. Really enjoy your posts. Bill

08-20-2007, 04:02 PM	#117
THE HAT Grade 2 Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86	Saratoga Race Six This race gave most of you trouble, so after I get my two horse I am going to analyze the race a little different to teach the way to make the final decision. The Seven Eleven and Thirteen scratched. There are tandems that will help in the elimination of horses. The Two, ran in tandems and is slow, out. The One Three and Six are slow, out. The Eight was beaten by the Four, out. The Nine and Ten are from the same tandem and are slow, out. The Three and Twelve are Early, but are slower than the Four, out. This leaves the Four and Five as the main contenders. Now, how is the race going to run, Early, "or other than early?" There are three horse that can run early in the race, the Tree, Four and Twelve. The three early horses are slower than the four, but will they have any effect on the Four? The Four needs at least a five length lead, on the turf, in order to go wire-to-wire. The Three and the Twelve can not win the race, but can prevent the Four for getting the lead he needs to win. Look at the third running line on the Four. Looking at the third running lines show what happens if the four horse does not get a comfortable lead. He can be caught. The horse most likely to catch him is the Five. Look at positions and beaten lengths .The Five will be coming like a jet. This race will run "other than early" and the Five will win the race.