"The Hat's" Power Lines - Page 7 - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 07-26-2007, 08:35 AM

Removed the 3 earlies for this shot leaves 2 contenders for the win.

Things I noticed quickly:
1) The pace of race 1c and 2c are respectively 3 ticks and 1 tick FASTER on the 8 horse matched against the 9 horse.

8 horse - 22.0- 45.3 - 57.3
9 horse - 22.3 - 45.4 - 58.0

so on the first 2 calls we have 4 tick advantage on the 8 to work with.

2) While the 8 lost a position and 1/2 beaten length 1c to 2c to me it "looked" like there probably was a crowd of horses there bunched together. He then seperates from the crowd with an awesome POWER MOVE going 7-2 from 2c to stretch call.

screenshot

RichieP · 07-26-2007, 08:40 AM

Now I was taught early on that we could "move up" a horse 1 position for every 5th of a second he faced a faster pace of race IF he demonstrated the ability in his pp's to actually run closer.

so regarding the 8 can we legitimately put him running well CLOSER to the lead from his pp's?

Here are the pp's and the answer without question is YES.

look at the line from 149 days back. 22.2 - 45.2 runs and WINS wire to wire!

screenshot

RichieP · 07-26-2007, 09:02 AM

so now we CAN alter or "Voodoo" # 8's line from Belmont turf by placing him 1 position closer for every 5th of a second he is faster pace of race wise.

he has 3 tick edge 1c over the 9.
he has 1 tick edge 2c over the 9.

So his original pace of race and positions are

22.0 - 45.3 - 57.3 Positions - 6-7-2-2

we will now subtract 3 positions starting at the 1st call based on his pace of race edge. so the 6 becomes 3.

now he loses a position during the actual pp line but gets it back for the additional 1 tick edge over the 9 at the 2nd call.

so if his new "Voodoo" position at 1c is 3 instead of losing a position (to 4) he maintains position based on his pace of race edge. so now he is 3-3.

we have 3-3 now as the 8's 1st 2 calls. his original line shows a 4 position gain 2c-sc. so when we give him that now he rockets to the lead at the sc.

3-3-1 is new positions

Did I lose you? This is some heavy **** man BUT with some practice we can grasp some of this.

so now we have

8 horse - 22.0 - 45.3 - 57.3 Positions 3-3-1
9 horse - 22.3 - 45.4 - 58.0 Positions 8-4-2

Who is ahead of the other? THAT is our bet.

Result chart of the race.

Richie
PS - to keep things real this was my betting on the card yesterday at the Spa

Race 1) bet the 3 - leading in mid stretch - breaks down - Loss

Race 2) Pass 2 yr old fts

Race 3) bet the 1. Gets killed. Loss . Hat LOVED the winner at 15.20 btw

Race 4) bet the 8. Win $14.80

Race 5) bet the 8. has the lead deep stretch and gets nailed by the rat 11. Runs 2nd. Loss

Race 6) bet the 4. Loved the horse. takes the lead deep stretch and gets nailed late by the 1 who is impossible for me to see. Runs 2nd.Loss.

Races 7-8-9-10 Passed. Life gets in the way.

total bet 10.00
total ret 14.80 1 for 5 with a breakdown and 2 seconds.

mufasa · 07-26-2007, 09:30 AM

Rich, just when I thought you have given us so much already you come back again with another big time WOW:
[Now I was taught early on that we could "move up" a horse 1 position for every 5th of a second he faced a faster pace of race IF he demonstrated the ability in his pp's to actually run closer.
so now we have

8 horse - 22.0 - 45.3 - 57.3 Positions 3-3-1
9 horse - 22.3 - 45.4 - 58.0 Positions 8-4-2

Who is ahead of the other? THAT is our bet.]

This is truly great stuff and while I know I have to practice allot to get comfortably confident with all of this new material your clear demonstration of the methodology in action has greased the wheels towards my expected early success.

Thanks,

Robert

VoodooFan · 07-26-2007, 11:29 AM

That was a great set of examples , Richie. Almost poetic, musical. Like the way you showing your real results, good and bad. Very high integrety and humility....keys to mastering the MatchUp "Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw" style. The New MatchUp Guy is the Real *****in DEAL....our version of "Tom Brohamer" of illustrating the MatchUp...(without the trainer, jockey, sire, par,etc,.), maybe better. Such vivid illustrations, one can almost see the horses running. You're gonna get better, Richie. Once you master all the patterns, then learn the "minute" variations within set patterns. You'll get better because while you are not allowed to look back on races lost, when Mr. Bradshaw wins a race and you lost it, he can recognize things you missed and can focus on those things you need to improve. And your improvement is our improvement. Don't forget to bring an apple to the teacher before class. Great Job. Excellent. VoodooFan

emilio840 · 07-26-2007, 01:17 PM

Hi Richie. I just want to make sure that I got everything right. At the Spa I bet the #8 to win too. But, the reason that I came up with that winner is because 1) I threw all the horses that did not have a TURF LINE (this included the fast early #5 that showed he wired the field at 21.4 44.1 109.2)

2) I threw the Early turf horses because I projected it was going to run OTE.

And than I match the 8 and he was the best of the rest.

My question is should we throw out Dirt horses when they run on the Turf. In this situation it worked out well for me. Or else I would have bet the #5 because he was faster than any other horse in that field.

emilio

RichieP · 07-26-2007, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by emilio840

Hi Richie. I just want to make sure that I got everything right. At the Spa I bet the #8 to win too. But, the reason that I came up with that winner is because 1) I threw all the horses that did not have a TURF LINE (this included the fast early #5 that showed he wired the field at 21.4 44.1 109.2)

2) I threw the Early turf horses because I projected it was going to run OTE.

And than I match the 8 and he was the best of the rest.

My question is should we throw out Dirt horses when they run on the Turf. In this situation it worked out well for me. Or else I would have bet the #5 because he was faster than any other horse in that field.

emilio

Emilio
I worked that race exactly as you described. That big power move 7-2 from
2c-sc and the faster pace of race than what was projected sealed the deal for me.

Regarding dirt horses in turf races Jim taught me to NOT make any rule but instead go by "feel" or intuition and deal with them on a race to race basis ok?
Sometimes we are gonna be right and sometimes we are wrong.

Emilio while this requires some patience and discipline I think it is something for you to consider. You have posted you are focusing and betting almost exclusively "early" races.

CONSIDER watching for OTE races with proven matching earlies that can be tossed. Look to the OTE for the win just like you did in THIS race man.That was GREAT WORK man!

Now you have another "weapon" in your wagering arsenal right? One that you will see produces consitently GOOD win prices. By FAR my favorite SPOT PLAY.

Richie

mufasa · 07-26-2007, 03:21 PM

You know Rich the new advanced Match Up material you have given us today is not only great stuff for OTE races but I am thinking it can also be used effectively in early races also whenever there are more then one early who are closely matched.

Robert

tom · 07-26-2007, 06:39 PM

Whew!
I need a smoke

THAT was good stuff......hats off to Richie for an excellant presentation of the match up!

RichieP · 07-27-2007, 07:45 AM

Assumed - These are the right lines to match the horses for this race.

Make the call.

"Hat Helper's"
a) Power Moves
b) ability to "get on top" of fractions from previous races

I will post the result chart tomorrow morning.This track is QUICKLY becoming my favorite. Surpassing even Mountaineer.

07-26-2007, 08:35 AM	#61
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Deja Vous all over again. Power Move Removed the 3 earlies for this shot leaves 2 contenders for the win. Things I noticed quickly: 1) The pace of race 1c and 2c are respectively 3 ticks and 1 tick FASTER on the 8 horse matched against the 9 horse. 8 horse - 22.0- 45.3 - 57.3 9 horse - 22.3 - 45.4 - 58.0 so on the first 2 calls we have 4 tick advantage on the 8 to work with. 2) While the 8 lost a position and 1/2 beaten length 1c to 2c to me it "looked" like there probably was a crowd of horses there bunched together. He then seperates from the crowd with an awesome POWER MOVE going 7-2 from 2c to stretch call. screenshot Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

07-26-2007, 08:40 AM	#62
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Deja Vous all over again. Power Move Now I was taught early on that we could "move up" a horse 1 position for every 5th of a second he faced a faster pace of race IF he demonstrated the ability in his pp's to actually run closer. so regarding the 8 can we legitimately put him running well CLOSER to the lead from his pp's? Here are the pp's and the answer without question is YES. look at the line from 149 days back. 22.2 - 45.2 runs and WINS wire to wire! screenshot Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

07-26-2007, 09:02 AM	#63
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Deja Vous all over again. Power Move so now we CAN alter or "Voodoo" # 8's line from Belmont turf by placing him 1 position closer for every 5th of a second he is faster pace of race wise. he has 3 tick edge 1c over the 9. he has 1 tick edge 2c over the 9. So his original pace of race and positions are 22.0 - 45.3 - 57.3 Positions - 6-7-2-2 we will now subtract 3 positions starting at the 1st call based on his pace of race edge. so the 6 becomes 3. now he loses a position during the actual pp line but gets it back for the additional 1 tick edge over the 9 at the 2nd call. so if his new "Voodoo" position at 1c is 3 instead of losing a position (to 4) he maintains position based on his pace of race edge. so now he is 3-3. we have 3-3 now as the 8's 1st 2 calls. his original line shows a 4 position gain 2c-sc. so when we give him that now he rockets to the lead at the sc. 3-3-1 is new positions Did I lose you? This is some heavy **** man BUT with some practice we can grasp some of this. so now we have 8 horse - 22.0 - 45.3 - 57.3 Positions 3-3-1 9 horse - 22.3 - 45.4 - 58.0 Positions 8-4-2 Who is ahead of the other? THAT is our bet. Result chart of the race. Richie PS - to keep things real this was my betting on the card yesterday at the Spa Race 1) bet the 3 - leading in mid stretch - breaks down - Loss Race 2) Pass 2 yr old fts Race 3) bet the 1. Gets killed. Loss . Hat LOVED the winner at 15.20 btw Race 4) bet the 8. Win $14.80 Race 5) bet the 8. has the lead deep stretch and gets nailed by the rat 11. Runs 2nd. Loss Race 6) bet the 4. Loved the horse. takes the lead deep stretch and gets nailed late by the 1 who is impossible for me to see. Runs 2nd.Loss. Races 7-8-9-10 Passed. Life gets in the way. total bet 10.00 total ret 14.80 1 for 5 with a breakdown and 2 seconds. Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!" Last edited by RichieP; 07-26-2007 at 09:11 AM.

07-27-2007, 07:45 AM	#70
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,019	Make the call Assumed - These are the right lines to match the horses for this race. Make the call. "Hat Helper's" a) Power Moves b) ability to "get on top" of fractions from previous races I will post the result chart tomorrow morning.This track is QUICKLY becoming my favorite. Surpassing even Mountaineer. Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

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07-26-2007, 09:30 AM	#64
mufasa Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 310	Rich, just when I thought you have given us so much already you come back again with another big time WOW: [Now I was taught early on that we could "move up" a horse 1 position for every 5th of a second he faced a faster pace of race IF he demonstrated the ability in his pp's to actually run closer. so now we have 8 horse - 22.0 - 45.3 - 57.3 Positions 3-3-1 9 horse - 22.3 - 45.4 - 58.0 Positions 8-4-2 Who is ahead of the other? THAT is our bet.] This is truly great stuff and while I know I have to practice allot to get comfortably confident with all of this new material your clear demonstration of the methodology in action has greased the wheels towards my expected early success. Thanks, Robert

07-26-2007, 01:17 PM	#66
emilio840 Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: I live in Toronto, Ontario, can Posts: 220	Hi Richie. I just want to make sure that I got everything right. At the Spa I bet the #8 to win too. But, the reason that I came up with that winner is because 1) I threw all the horses that did not have a TURF LINE (this included the fast early #5 that showed he wired the field at 21.4 44.1 109.2) 2) I threw the Early turf horses because I projected it was going to run OTE. And than I match the 8 and he was the best of the rest. My question is should we throw out Dirt horses when they run on the Turf. In this situation it worked out well for me. Or else I would have bet the #5 because he was faster than any other horse in that field. emilio

07-26-2007, 03:21 PM	#68
mufasa Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 310	You know Rich the new advanced Match Up material you have given us today is not only great stuff for OTE races but I am thinking it can also be used effectively in early races also whenever there are more then one early who are closely matched. Robert

07-26-2007, 06:39 PM	#69
tom Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 644	Whew! I need a smoke THAT was good stuff......hats off to Richie for an excellant presentation of the match up!