Turfway "Live" Wednesday - Race 8

[RichieP]

Let's do a Polyrace since it IS the wave of the future.

Here is race 8 on tomorrow nights card to be run at 6.5f.

One thing that I do in my work on this poly stuff is to only work races where ALL my fast contenders have lines from the poly surface. I do NOT mix and match. My quirky way.

Let's do the race from a matchup/ first call perspective ok? We have a nice clear early as you will see to get a projected FIRST CALL pace from.

Then we will:
1) select contenders who have shown an ability to run against the FIRST CALL proj pace

2) after selecting suitable horses and some lines we will chop out some horses to reduce the mix.

3) will post up the various screens on RDSS

4) see what shakes out come race time


first here are the tandems for the race. I LOVE this screen.

[RichieP]

let's start with the projected pacesetter.

This is the #6 horse who kind of looks like a "stop on his own" type runner. We will use his 2nd race back to project 1st and 2nd call BUT keep 1thing in mind

1) Because he might be a stop on his own type we will also consider tandem horses from the last race also that was at 6f.

we will use his 22.4 - 45.7 to get us started but also consider the last race
22.7 FIRST call.

we will NOT select any horse as a contender who can NOT race against a sub 23 first call

screenshot of the 6 horse. line 2 is the POWER LINE

[RichieP]

here is horse 1. how nice. his power line is also against todays pace at todays distance. he ran 2nd so we know he CAN run against these.

CONTENDER

line 3 is the line we will use and is also his POWER LINE

[RichieP]

horse 2 has never faced a sub 23 first call. can he handle it? Darn if I know and until he shows it he is OUT

No line

NON CONTENDER

[RichieP]

horse 3.

shows no 6.5f races but shows a tandem from the last race that our pacesetter #6 comes out of.

this guy finished 2nd running other than early and 3 back shows an aggresive
"fighting" win running early.

I mark this guy with an "unknown" style but KNOW he belongs

Line 3 is the POWER LINE

CONTENDER

[RichieP]

horse 4.

sorry no poly lines and his last 7 races has NOT faced a sub 23 1st call. He can win just not for me

no line

NON CONTENDER

[RichieP]

horse 5

this is the FAVORITE according to the ml. he shows 2 races against the #6 pacesetter. I have the lines checked for you to see

Positions in the 2 races??

10-6-7
10-7-8

are you serious??

No line. If he wins bless him.

NON CONTENDER

[RichieP]

horse 7

shows 1 race over the poly. we step backa few lines and see he HAS raced twice against 22 and change 1st fractions. NOT sure of Hoosier cause I dont play there so let's mark the lines to see what shakes

[RichieP]

horse 8.

can't get out of its own way man. slow horse that can NOT keep up early from the pp's

no line
NON CONTENDER

[RichieP]

here is what we have. four contenders but we are going to chop some wood here .


look at the box I have around the 7 horse. BOTH the break and 1st call positions are marked, SEE how far out POSITIONALLY is off BOTH races? of the 4 contenders both those lines place him furthest out against the true contenders

for the WIN this horse HAS to go man.

first the screenshot showing the 4 contenders