Bel 10/25/26

[Jimmy R]

Selections in order of preference. LS = longshot/value play.

R1: 1-2-4-5 | LS: 5

R2: 1-5-7-2 | LS: 2

R3: 4-1-6-2 | LS: 6

R4: 6-4-3-5 | LS: 4

R5: 6-4-9-2 | LS: 6

R6: 4-1-6-2 | LS: 1

R7: 3-4-5-7 | LS: 5

R8: 8-5-4-1 | LS: 4

R9: 6-11-2-13 | LS: 2

**Best Bet:** R6 #4 East Coast Girl (7/2 ML)

**Best Value Plays:**

R4 #4 Liz's Image (15/1 ML)

R5 #6 Snappy Comeback (10/1 ML)

R8 #8 Hark Theangelssing (8/1 ML)

Some interesting price opportunities today, especially in the turf races.

Good luck to everyone playing today!

[AwesomeAgain]

Originally Posted by Jimmy R

Selections in order of preference. LS = longshot/value play.

R1: 1-2-4-5 | LS: 5

R2: 1-5-7-2 | LS: 2

R3: 4-1-6-2 | LS: 6

R4: 6-4-3-5 | LS: 4

R5: 6-4-9-2 | LS: 6

R6: 4-1-6-2 | LS: 1

R7: 3-4-5-7 | LS: 5

R8: 8-5-4-1 | LS: 4

R9: 6-11-2-13 | LS: 2

**Best Bet:** R6 #4 East Coast Girl (7/2 ML)

**Best Value Plays:**

R4 #4 Liz's Image (15/1 ML)

R5 #6 Snappy Comeback (10/1 ML)

R8 #8 Hark Theangelssing (8/1 ML)

Some interesting price opportunities today, especially in the turf races.

Good luck to everyone playing today!

Make us proud Jimmy!

[Lt1]

Good luck Jimmy.
Tim

[AwesomeAgain]

3 minutes to post. I like the 3 and the 1. Top Selection the 3. Happy Punting today Gents!

[Jimmy R]

BELMONT 10/25/26 - POST CARD RECAP

Thanks Tim and AwesomeAgain for the encouragement!

R1: #2 Kayla's Komet ($5.00) - 2nd selection

R2: #1 Charlotte's Beach ($4.00) - TOP selection

R3: #4 Lady Rose ($4.04) - TOP selection

R4: #1 Supplier ($37.84) - MISSED (FTS)

R5: #4 Ground Support ($6.32) - 2nd selection

R6: #6 Mo For The King ($5.46) - 3rd selection

R7: #3 Material Girl ($5.12) - TOP selection

R8: #5 Lion Lake ($4.04) - 2nd selection

R9: #7 Juliet On Approach ($33.46) - MISSED

CARD SUMMARY

7 of 9 winners in my top 3 selections.

3 winners were my top selection.
3 winners were my second selection.
1 winner was my third selection.

The winner and runner-up were both among my four posted selections in five races:

R2: 1-2 Exacta $12.92
R3: 4-2 Exacta $6.31
R5: 4-6 Exacta $28.54
R7: 3-4 Exacta $9.37
R8: 5-1 Exacta $9.93

All exacta prices are for $1. These were combinations covered by my posted selections, not necessarily wagers played.

A FEW OBSERVATIONS

R5 was a nice example of looking beyond the raw BL/BL rankings. #4 Ground Support was only 6th by BL/BL score, but the graded-stakes form stood out. I moved her into my second selection, and she won convincingly. My top selection, #6 Snappy Comeback, finished second at 16/1.

R7 was another interesting one. #3 Material Girl was 6th by BL/BL score, but her recent head-to-head form and CSR ranking made her my top selection. She won, with my second selection #4 Liberty's Secret completing the exacta.

R8 #5 Lion Lake was even farther down the original BL/BL rankings, 9th by score. Her recent G2 performance made her difficult to leave out, and she won. My top selection #8 Hark Theangelssing finished third at nearly 12/1.

THE MISSES

R4 #1 Supplier was a first-time starter with no RDSS paceline. She won at nearly 18/1. A reminder of the limitations of numerical rankings in maiden races with unrated horses.

R6 was disappointing. My Best Bet, #4 East Coast Girl, finished fifth after contesting the early pace. My third selection, #6 Mo For The King, came from off the pace to win easily.

R9 #7 Juliet On Approach won at nearly 16/1 despite ranking 8th by BL/BL score. That's one I need to study more closely. The winner and runner-up were both missing from my selections.

TAKEAWAY

Four winners were in the original numerical BL/BL top five. Three more were identified through additional form, class and pace evaluation. The other two winners were missed.

I'm pleased with getting 7 of 9 winners into the top three, especially the adjustments in R5, R7 and R8.

But contender coverage and profitable wagering are two different things. The Best Bet didn't deliver, and the two biggest winners on the card got away.

Still more work to do on first-time starters, pace matchups and identifying live horses outside the top BL/BL rankings.

Trust but verify as Tim says!

Thanks again, guys. On to the next card!

[darmar]

Excellent thread on this day Jimmy. On days where chalk plays prevailed so much finding profitable plays is just not attainable. Don't worry about missing 2 yr old FTS winner, a crap shoot at best.
The R9 outcome does merit a closer look but if the horse doesn't show any positive numbers in RDSS it is just an outlier that got good on the day. So congrats on your efforts and keep records that bring the most positive results
Darryl

[Jimmy R]

Thanks Darryl! Appreciate the feedback.

You're absolutely right about the maiden and 2YO races, especially first-time starters. I know better than to make those betting races with RDSS. The Sartin guidelines about avoiding horses doing something for the first time are pretty clear. LOL!

I agree about the chalk, too. Finding 7 of 9 winners in the top three looks good on paper, but that doesn't necessarily translate into profitable wagering. That's where I need to be more selective and concentrate on value.

R9 is still worth another look, but as you said, sometimes a horse just outruns its numbers. I don't want to start chasing every longshot after the fact.

I'm going to keep tracking the results, especially the horses that move into contention through the additional RDSS factors and paceline review. R5 and R7 were encouraging examples.

Thanks again for the advice Darryl. Always learning!

Jimmy

[dadams6357]

Jimmy
Nice presentation.
Myself if I handicap a race it is hard for me not to bet on it.
In regards to maidens the only advice I have is if you have a bunch of
runners that have a bunch of races...bet on the horse that has only raced a couple of
times regardless how he finished.
Good luck ...thanks again.
Don