New Program /workout %

[Lt1]

Excellent work Mitch. Maybe you should take the monkey out more often.
Tim

[Mitch44]

Here's another from 9th at PRX today 11 Jul.23
Three horses qualified for workouts,
3 - 81
10- 91
6- 96
I tossed the 10 for lack of class or CR rating. And while the 3 isn't a new top, top was 86 back on 8 Feb. long too far back. The 81 was since last race over a month ago and indicates recent form and ready for today's affair.

# 3 wins and pays $100.00 for the win. The 6 gets place for a $543.60 EX.
I did not have the EX. but I did have the winner and the DD it keyed for the 10th race. DD was $461.00.

COMPLETED:cf2d9-4cd28 PRX #9 $4 Win 3, 8, 9 none $12.00
$200.00
+ $188.00

COMPLETED: d93f9-139a2 PRX #9 $1 Double 3, 8, 9, WT, 1, 4, 7, 9 none $12.00
$230.50
+ $218.50

I believe this will be my last post under this thread, if you don't get this by now I can't help you. Hopefully Ted will get the next updated program out soon which also will benefit you.

Mitch44

[Lt1]

Nice score Mitch. Thanks for sharing your work.
Tim

[darmar]

Great stuff on this workout angle Mitch and Congrats to you and the little guy
Darryl

[Lt1]

Playing FL Today and bet the early dd. Put in my bets and didn't include the 2. I reviewed my work when I noticed I had noted the WOP for it. That work was 7 days ago and was a lifetime best work jumping off the page. The horse was coming off a 9 month l/o but did rank 3 lpr &3 3 fx, The Trainer was 0-5 with
l/o horses but had improving srs before the l/o. Since I had strong feelings in r1 I played all but this one[so I thought] so I quickly threw a dd. Turned out I had put it in so I caught it twice. None of this would have happened if it wasn't
for Mitch sharing this angle. Here are the tickets.
Aug 9 104 PM Complete Finger Lakes 1 Double $1.00 1,5,6/2 $3.00 $81.00 $78.00
Aug 9 139 PM Complete Finger Lakes 1 Double $1.00 5,6/2-4 $6.00 $81.00 $75.00
Thanks again big guy. The horse pd $42.20 to win
Tim

[1retired]

Mitch and others interested in workouts before the race

I share your excitement with regards to workouts and how they can predict winners, particularly longshot winners. As a case in point, I analyzed all longshot winners at Churchill Downs from Sept 2023 to the present. This was on both dirt and turf. As l subset of that, I looked at MSW winners. Just to make a point of it, Churchill has the same purse structure for its races as the major NY tracks which is again higher than the Southern California major tracks. This is the creme de la creme of racing. I have all of this data and more on an Excel spreadsheet. If the numbers are present here, they are present at all tracks. Here and at the NY tracks is where all the whales and sharks are. NOthing much gets past them. They get their fair odds on most races. However, I think this idea does and they don't get fair odds in this situation.

There were 300 MSW races in that time period. Of those 300, 92 were won by FTS at all kinds of odds. 61 were won by FTS at odds of 9-1 or greater. The other 31 were won by FTS at lower odds than 9-1. Of those 61 FTS winners at odds of 9-1 or longer, 43 had good works. I define a good workout as a workout that is as good s or better than 66% of the horse that worked that day.

Of the 300 MSW winners at all odds, only 32 of them had neither a good workout or a finish of 2nd, 3rd or 4th in their last race. 90% of them had those traits, i.e either a good work or a 2nd, 3rd or 4th finish. To me. that's a big deal and indicates the importance of a good work and a good 2nd, 3rd or 4th finish or both.

The prices on the longshots that have either a good work before the last race or a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish in the last race are beyond good. For example,

Get Twisted 9/15/23 4th race 5.5F on Turf won 91.66 to 1 - FTS
Floored 9/21/23 3rd race 7f on dirt won 32.3 to 1 - 34 DAYS
Divine Gal. 11/18/23 11th race on dirt won 29.76 to 1 - FTS
Wind Rider. 11/26/23 8th race on dirt 7f won 38.13 to 1 - 273 DAYS
Keep it Easy 6/27/04 3rd race on on dirt 6f won 23.29 to 1 - 21 DAYS
McDude 927/8 8th race on dirt 6f won 25.85 to 1 - FTS
Speed King 11/1/04 5th race on dirt 6f won 22.9 to 1 - FTS
Kosher Capone 11/8/24 9th race on dirt 8f won 22.25 to 1 -
Her Laugh 11/17/24 6th on dirt 6f won 29.4 to 1 - FTS
Shared Vision 11/24/24 7th on dirt at 6.5F won 25.51 to 1 - FTS
Monet's Magic 11/30/24 12 on dirt at 8,5F won 24.85 to 1 - 3RD LAST
Longstrider. 5/9/25 2nd on dirt at 5f won 18.63 to 1 - FTS
Direct Channel 5/11/25 7th on turf at 8F won 34.72 to 1 -330 days
Math Tutor. 6/7/25 9th on dirt at 6f won at odds of 52.99 to 1 -L
Trusty Troutman 6/26/25 3rd on dirt at 7f won at odds of 32.54 to 1 - FTS

There were many other horses that won at odds from 9-1 to 20-1. These are the highest.

I got my inspiration for this from Steve Christ, the DRF writer who wrote so much about value handicapping.

I started looking at MSW FTS and layoff horses because so much has been done regarding horses that have raced within 30 days. There's a lot of literature about how to evaluate those horses. So, I wanted to find an area where not so much had been done - FTS and layoff horses that wih as longshots is it. I have Excel spreadsheets with all longshots that won at odds of 9-1 or higher from many of the major tracks for the last several years. MSW horses seemed to be one area where many longshots occurred at all of the major tracks. This seemed to be one area where you got the most bang for your buck in handicapping and betting.

When I first compiled this data I was dumbfounded at how awesome the data was, at least to me. The potential for big profit seems to be sky high. I have not done a rigorous data mine to see if and how profitable this angle is at any track. I picked Churchill because it is at the top of heap and gets a lot of attention from whales, sharks and just plain betters. If it seemed profitable there, it should work anywhere.

My process was to fiond the longshot winners by just doing a daily data dump on the daily results charts and then examining the workouts prior the winning race using the Equibase workout database. Occasionally I would go back more than 3, 4 or more workouts because even here many trainers are trying to hide their intentions. Most are not. If you have good works, you can expect a good race. The data dump on Churchill clearly shows it.

I'd be interested in your opinions on this. I'm prarticularly interested in your opinion Mitch because you have been down this road yourself.

[Mitch44]

Hello 1retired,

My friend Tim told me of your post as I don't check the post everyday due to all my other commitments.

Early in my Sartin days everything confused me from lack of knowledge. However when I returned to RDSS & reread stuff a bell went off and I could now understand it completely. Then could not figure why I was so dump the first time out of the gate , so to speak.
Not to avoid your question please re- read my posts on w/o, also on 90 day horses. Additionally my posts on deceleration and for Beginners from the top.
If that doesn't help then PM me and we'll exchange phone numbers and I'll help you . I don't mind helping someone that does the work. Your question is answered in my workout thread and my 90 day horses thread.

Mitch44 AKA"The Monkey"

All my best,
Mitch44

[Bill Lyster]

After reading Mitch's posts concerning workout % I decided to see if I could summarize the great quantity of posts and the information contained therein.

The first document is an executive summary produced by AI after reviewing the larger document. The larger second document is my version of a distilled summary of all the critical things from Mitch. Some of secondary factors that I cite come from our 5,000+ data base research enchanced by AI and may not coincide with Mitch's original teachings.

If you need to see the many examples of races worked, they can be found earlier in this thread and I have included the website address as well.

Now, to be sure, this method requires some critical thinking to see how the horse is working, and has worked and ran, after previous works. Trainers train individual horses and each horse may respond differently to fast works or even slower works. You should study the relationship between race spacing, workout spacing and distance worked. Initially this will extend the time it takes to make a betting decision on most races. But it will pay off when you find the elusive horse that pays double digit win mutuals.

Hope you find some great wins with this data! Oops, forgot to download the files.

Regards,

Bill

[Bill Lyster]

Workout_Pct_Executive_Summary.doc

This is the executive summary. The main file is too large to attach to this website. I am seeking input on how to reduce size AND in a format accepted by the website.

Sorry about that.

[Bill Lyster]

Okay here is the file as a pdf.

Workout information developed by Mitch.pdf