V/DC Question

[ray lopez]

I pass this race ...but i think Taulbot got it just so simple...

[ray lopez]

Just top 2 RAW...better than VDC

[ray lopez]

Use whatever is easy,fun and simple...Val4,Energy,Synthesis...da-da-da-da...None of us are going to be millionaires anyway...as long as i am enjoying myself and having fun and making a little along the way...

[DanBoals]

looking at Ray's Val4, a program I have never used, it seems most of the same primary factors that are in BL/BL are also in VDC. This is probably why in RDSS 2, the top VDC horse is usually the top BL/BL horse.

I know when Howard was going broke, he was throwing everything at the wall trying to get something to stick. My guess is creating VDC was one of those things. He had the doc factor, which then morphed into SPN, then morphed into BL/BL and then seems to have morphed into VDC.

I only use 3 screens in RDSS and make money. I use the original line screen, the PoH screen and the BL/BL screen. All of these existed in Synthesis, which is the only program I had a part in and the only one I feel I really understand.

It is frustrating to me, that a ton of the things Howard told me did not make sense at the time. It was only years later that a lot of what he said started to fall into place. If he explained VDC to people and it makes sense to them, then they should 100% use it and cash those tickets.

Handicapping in 2026 has no mechanical solution. There is no one size fits all answer, not VDC, not BL/BL, not anything. If there were a mechanical solution, people running regression studies would have landed it on it. I go to lunch sometimes with Dave Schwartz (a really nice guy if you get the chance to meet him) and he has every race run in north america this century in his database. He is constantly running his evolutionary AI software to look for patterns and angles. I am sure others are doing similar things - and I am sure the whales can afford more people to throw at it. I just don't think there is a fixed solution.

The great news is that means our own pattern recognition and intuition are as good as it gets. Using good tools like the Sartin Methodology has been producing for 4 decades and counting we can figure out contenders and then using the concept of the matchup, do a decent job of handicapping most races.

This is truly a lot of work. Then when you add on the record keeping, it can easily become a full time job. I think the secret is to do what Ray does, which sadly I might lack the discipline for, and that is to wait for your best shots. If you can pass 7 races out of 9, I think you can make money. Ray Taulbot was a big believer in this, to pass the majority of races and focus on your key bets. When it is entertainment and not a living, that is a lot harder to do, for me anyways.

Anything that works for you, stick with it. Never drop what is working for you to chase someone else's ideas. We all pick different pacelines and that means we all see different results on the screen. You have to stick with what is working for the pacelines you are choosing.

[shoeless]

Dan, Ray and Brian that was some really good stuff posted by you guys. Also had a special guest apparence by LT 1.

That's what we need more of around here discussions like these

Great stuff guys


Jeff

[shoeless]

But as you guys said the most important thing is having the right
contenders and pace lines.

As Tom Brohammer once said garbage in, garbage out.

Jeff

[shoeless]

Just in case you missed it Dick did a nice study on BL/BL in the
Pace Leverage section.

I think you guys had some great answers as well.

Jeff

[DanBoals]

Hey Jeff,

The problems with studies that are not based on your own handicapping results is that the pacelines you choose are not going to be the same ones that the study uses in a lot of cases.

Also, unless you have the raw data, studies are of limited use. This is true in science and also in handicapping. You have to be able to look at the raw data to eliminate outliers that are clearly not representative of the norm.

Keeping records is crucial to winning. You can't use other people's records unless they choose the exact same pacelines as you and make the exact same betting decisions as you. It would be wonderful if there were a cheat code, where you could avoid the work and win, but I certainly have not found it.

[pianoman]

Amen! As Dan aptly put it. None of us wager the same way. We all have some preferences in selecting contenders and pacelines even though we’re under the umbrella of the methodology. Sartin said the 11th commandment was “know thy tracks”.

[shoeless]

Dan

Thanks as always, you make some great points.

Thanks, Pianoman for chiming in

Good to know there are people out that there

Jeff