Preakness - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

cratman · 05-17-2026, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mitch44

Summary
Number of Bets
24
Win Percentage
41.67%
ROI
295.74%
Wagered
$944.50
Payoff
$3,737.75
Profit/Loss
$2,793.25

Mitch44 "The Monkey"

Very impressive. Thanks for sharing.

Mitch44 · 05-17-2026, 06:00 PM

Jeff,
I once read that if you can get 35% your an expert. I thought that doesn't make sense when favorite's win about 33%. Seldom do i not have the winner in my top 3. Most races only have 3 real contenders, some 2 and some 4.If I don't have the winner in my top 3 its a maiden race or a 3 year old race. Or the horse was just un getable by normal Hcp.
I don't even think about win rate. What I have found out is bottom line,. did you make a profit.
Once I'm ahead I increase my bets however I go home a winner even if its $1.00. I have left tracks dead broke without a $1.00 in my pocket. Terrible feeling . Even leaving with a dollar I'm a winner and there is positive reinforcement behind that.
Mitch44

Mitch44 · 05-17-2026, 06:01 PM

Thanks cratman.

Mitch44

The Pook · 05-17-2026, 07:01 PM

Thanks guys,

Pook

darmar · 05-17-2026, 09:08 PM

Sorry for the late response to the thread, rough times for me these days, but I just wanted to express my big congratulations to both Mitch and Mike on your outstanding days effort and justified rewards. You are both super 'cappers who leave nothing behind when you step up to play.
Darryl

The Pook · 05-18-2026, 08:56 AM

Thanks Darryl.

Pook

shoeless · 05-18-2026, 01:11 PM

Thanks, Mitch good advice

Jeff

dadams6357 · 05-18-2026, 03:49 PM

Mitch
Thanks for the analysis of the bet.
And posting all of your bets.
Great handicapping.
Don

Mitch44 · 05-18-2026, 05:01 PM

Thanks Darrel , wishing you better health.
Mitch44

Mitch44 · 05-18-2026, 05:17 PM

Thanks Don,
My analysis was correct. I couldn't put the winner in my top 4 but looking for an upset I could use him in my P3 & P4 which I did.

Personally I couldn't believe the horses odds as it should have paid twice that IMO. I guess the stable sent it in. Couldn't bet it to win or anything else.

I design my P3 & P4 to include him, and wasn't going to let him beat me. Fast track & fast horse . As I said in my comments , they can drastically change from one race to another. They finally get it. Also connections finically got him also . He just wants to get out there and run. His class showed in this as he had plenty left for stretch drive as the #1 folded from the pressure.

Thanks Don hope you got something to take away from my posts. Best of luck.

Mitch44 AKA "The Monkey"

05-17-2026, 07:01 PM	#14
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,796	Thanks guys, Pook __________________ *"A fool and his money are soon parted"*

05-18-2026, 08:56 AM	#16
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,796	Thanks Darryl. Pook __________________ *"A fool and his money are soon parted"*

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05-17-2026, 06:00 PM	#12
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	Jeff, I once read that if you can get 35% your an expert. I thought that doesn't make sense when favorite's win about 33%. Seldom do i not have the winner in my top 3. Most races only have 3 real contenders, some 2 and some 4.If I don't have the winner in my top 3 its a maiden race or a 3 year old race. Or the horse was just un getable by normal Hcp. I don't even think about win rate. What I have found out is bottom line,. did you make a profit. Once I'm ahead I increase my bets however I go home a winner even if its $1.00. I have left tracks dead broke without a $1.00 in my pocket. Terrible feeling . Even leaving with a dollar I'm a winner and there is positive reinforcement behind that. Mitch44

05-17-2026, 06:01 PM	#13
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	Thanks cratman. Mitch44

05-17-2026, 09:08 PM	#15
darmar Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Maple Ridge, B.C. Canada Posts: 3,627	Sorry for the late response to the thread, rough times for me these days, but I just wanted to express my big congratulations to both Mitch and Mike on your outstanding days effort and justified rewards. You are both super 'cappers who leave nothing behind when you step up to play. Darryl

05-18-2026, 01:11 PM	#17
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,640	Thanks, Mitch good advice Jeff

05-18-2026, 03:49 PM	#18
dadams6357 Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2015 Location: Downers Grove, Il Posts: 529	Mitch Thanks for the analysis of the bet. And posting all of your bets. Great handicapping. Don

05-18-2026, 05:01 PM	#19
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	Thanks Darrel , wishing you better health. Mitch44

05-18-2026, 05:17 PM	#20
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,872	Thanks Don, My analysis was correct. I couldn't put the winner in my top 4 but looking for an upset I could use him in my P3 & P4 which I did. Personally I couldn't believe the horses odds as it should have paid twice that IMO. I guess the stable sent it in. Couldn't bet it to win or anything else. I design my P3 & P4 to include him, and wasn't going to let him beat me. Fast track & fast horse . As I said in my comments , they can drastically change from one race to another. They finally get it. Also connections finically got him also . He just wants to get out there and run. His class showed in this as he had plenty left for stretch drive as the #1 folded from the pressure. Thanks Don hope you got something to take away from my posts. Best of luck. Mitch44 AKA "The Monkey"