Today's picks, Derby Day.

[Mitch44]

Many challenging races fraught with many unknown factors. In addition to rust I love a challenge.
FWIW
2nd 8-5-9-2
3rd 13-6-214
4th 1-4-6
5th 6-10-1-5
6th 2-4-6-3
7th 8-2-5-4
late to this do to other commitments, therefore no explanations or comments. I'll try to get more up however priority is betting and getting more done. Definitely will post Derby picks.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

I passed the 1st and got shut out putting up this post. Would have lost, that was lucky, must be my day.
Mitch44.

[Mitch44]

7th # 8 Scr. new order 4-2-5-7
8th 6-9-8-4
9th 4-8-6-12
10th 6-4-7-10
11th 4-7-6-5

Mitch 44

[atlasaxis]

Honest question here.

Does anyone ever narrow it down to one or two actual plays before the race, or is the approach mostly listing multiple contenders and then reviewing the winner afterward?

I understand throwing up contenders, especially on busy days, but that only shows part of the process. The part most people are trying to learn is how you go from that list to an actual wager.

What’s the decision before the race? Which horse or combination is the play?

Just trying to understand what the takeaway is for someone looking to improve.

Tom

[MJS6916]

Originally Posted by atlasaxis

Honest question here.

Does anyone ever narrow it down to one or two actual plays before the race, or is the approach mostly listing multiple contenders and then reviewing the winner afterward?

I understand throwing up contenders, especially on busy days, but that only shows part of the process. The part most people are trying to learn is how you go from that list to an actual wager.

What’s the decision before the race? Which horse or combination is the play?

Just trying to understand what the takeaway is for someone looking to improve.

Tom

My assumption would be: vertical wagers are likely mostly being keyed
in the top 2 picks, and they could be going as deep as all listed contenders
in the horizontals.
Win and place wagers may be dependent on price.

Most days I wouldn't expect anyone to give away
their exact plays beforehand since most pools
don't compare to the size of today's at Churchill.

Mike

[atlasaxis]

Originally Posted by MJS6916

My assumption would be: vertical wagers are likely mostly being keyed
in the top 2 picks, and they could be going as deep as all listed contenders
in the horizontals.
Win and place wagers may be dependent on price.

Most days I wouldn't expect anyone to give away
their exact plays beforehand since most pools
don't compare to the size of today's at Churchill.

Mike

Mike, that makes sense in theory and I think that’s probably what most people assume is happening.

The issue, at least from my perspective, isn’t what might be going on behind the scenes. It’s that none of that is actually visible beforehand.

If the approach is keying top picks, spreading in horizontals, and adjusting based on price, that’s exactly the kind of thing people would benefit from seeing in real time.

Otherwise it just looks like a list of contenders before the race and a winning result afterward, without showing how one turned into the other.

I understand people may not want to give away exact plays, but even a simplified version of the wager structure before the race would go a long way in making it more understandable and useful.

Tom

[Mitch44]

12th Ky. Derby
Unlike recent years where the obvious best couple horses towered over the field, this year is full of good horses and like 3 year old's many in here are rounding into form so many unknown factors today. Best course of action is to go for a price.

Normal numbers etc. I have this 15-18-1-19 for the life of me , I can't believe the # 15 is 15-1 & with such a tough field will probably go higher.

Unknown factors follow, your choice:

2 Has improved w/ each race, top unk.30-1
4 Throw out last Baffert & 50-1 B on 17%
7 Foreign 20-1
8 3 pars won 3 of 4 top? 15-1
10 Foreign 30-1 w/o over track
11. On improve, increasing SR, won 3 of 4 routes. 20-1
12. B on 22% Mott 8-1
14. 3.5 pars, no slouch, Baffert 20-1
15. 4 pars , 2 for 3 for Brown 15-1
16. 4 pars, plus 6 SR 30-1
18. + 13 SR, 3 pars 6-1
19. B improvement (1) trainer 29% w/ repeaters where norm is about 17%, w 3of 4 routes. 30-1 which is crazy, good jock & trainer combination B improvement (1) expect more improvement.

Don't take a short price. I'm alive with Oaks & Derby DD

Best of luck on a real challenging card.

Mitch 44

[Mitch44]

The way I list them is how I see. I may move a horse down a position or two to take advantage of odds unless it just overwhelm the field. In the case of race 6 & 10 I left it first because they just towered over the field. Thy were key horses for me to find some money w/ a DD etc.

Mitch 44

[Mitch44]

Based on your handicapping once you have worked a race then design a bet to maximize & take advantage of that . You'll be amazed how many good price horses there are in the program's top 3. Generally player are scared of odds. If you don't make the bet you can't reap the rewards. Once I land on a horse I bet it regardless of odds. 50 0r 70-1 I still bet it.

Mitch44

[atlasaxis]

I think the disconnect here is pretty simple.

Most of the discussion is around contenders and rankings, which is helpful, but the part I’ve been trying to understand is the actual decision before the race. How those contenders turn into a specific wager.

That’s the piece that’s hard to see beforehand and hard to learn from afterward.

Just trying to understand that step better.

Tom