Pattern Recognition Reminder from Wayback

[kahunab]

Let’s take a look at PRX3 from today to see if we are reminded of an lesson I believe Jim Bradshaw gave us.

Let’s start with the Entries Screen!
What do we see here? We notice right away we have 4 Early, 1EP and 1Presser. And the presser is the only one with a workout pattern.


Anyone remember what Jim said?

We next take a peek at the LP screen. The strongest EPR belongs to the 4 the EP the best Early horse with the best EPR is the 3. The P horse is 3 in TPR and #1 in LPR. The red arrow by the 3’s EPR indicates he should get the lead. The 1 horse has great scores but is an early who can't get the lead.


Notice here on the BL/BL screen our reading of the L/P screen is confirmed. The 4 expends his energy Early our 5 expends his late which match their TPR ratings. The interesting, complicating part of the picture is that the 1 and 6 also expend their energy as Pressers. Only the 3 is a true E.



On the segments screen we see confirmation that the 3 horse can get the lead and our 5 horse can win late.


Here is where we get some more confirmation of the 5 horse being a lone Late horse. I worried a bit about his speed but every other horse is red meaning Early.




I thought that one of two scenarios would occur in this race. One, the 3 horse would break out of the early charge and go wire to wire. Or two, the herd would emerge from the gate and the Early would blow up and our 5 horse as the lone late would win.


What really happened?
The 1 and the 3 broke out together and as RDSS predicted the 3 took the lead and the 1 folded. The 5 surprisingly was right behind them in a presser position and closed it down winning by 3 lengths. The 4 got within 4 and folded taking 3rd about 7 lengths back. Scenario 2 played out.


So what is the Bradshaw reminder here? When a field is all Early except for a one or two horses, bet the late. Only one real late horse in this field and he ran away at 20 to 1. I tried to cover all my bases or both scenarios by keying the 3 and it worked. I just wish I had bet the 5 to win and not just play the exotics.

A fun reminder of voices from the past.

[Lt1]

Nice work up Dick. I hit the r3-4 dd and if folks are interested my readouts and screen shots are posted in the races of interest section. Like you point out attention to detail is as important, if not more so, then tier rankings. Once again well done.
Tim

[kahunab]

Thanks Tim,
I try to give folks something to talk about or think about as we work on our handicapping skills.

Dick

[The Pook]

Nice score and great analyzing!

Pook

[kahunab]

Thanks Pook!

Dick

[darmar]

Dick Every time you and Tim put up your breakdown up for us it just shows us what potential we have to useing RDSS to improve our handicapping and BANKROLL.
Congratulations and thanks for posting your review

[kahunab]

You are most welcome. I think Tim and I share the same idea. We just want to stimulate discussion and help folks think through how to handicap a bit better. And of course, to have some fun with this game we love.

Dick

[DELMARGRANT]

Hi Dick, Thanks for taking the time to put this together and share a nice race study. I am learning so much from some of the posts here and so thanks again Grant

[dadams6357]

Dick
I will take it a lil bit further back than Brohammer.
How about Moses lost in the wilderness for 40 years.
Then manna was dropped from the heavens.
Thanks for the manna Dick.
When you and Tim speak...Being as ADHD as I am.
I do listen.
Thanks again.
Don