PRX Race 1 18Nov25 An interesting situation.

[kahunab]

I thought I would post this race because it poses some interesting questions that we all face regularly.
First, the Entries Screen. We have an 8-horse field with one scratch in a 6F race. The early indication is a Neutral race with 15 Early Speed Points.

Next stop the Leverage Pace page. Our two weakest looking horses on the Entries scree are the 3 and the 7. They are also the weakest on the L/P screen in terms of Math 4-Score, RX3 and Leverage pace. Our data base for PRX sprints indicates 94% of the time the winner is in the top 5 RX3. The place horse is in the top 5, 85% of the time and the show horse is in the top 5 RX3 85% of the time. Which puts our mathematical expectation of a trifecta in the top 5 at 68% of the time. So we feel pretty comfortable demoting the 3 and 7 to secondary status. We note also that we have 4 horses that meet our leverage pace scores in order to earn a blue arrow as a candidate for the key horse. The 8, 2 and 5 have the strongest scores across the board. Since we are initially expecting a neutral race the 5 and 8 appear to have the strongest scores in SR, TE BL/BL, 4-Score, RXscores and LP ans well as TPR for a neutral race. 8 has the best EPR and 5 has the best LPR. Those two look like the strongest candidates for the Key. The 1 horse looks the weakest of the blue arrow horses.

We move to the BL/BL Screen. Here we see the 5 horse as our #1 tier horse (as my friend Tim calls it.) She looks particularly strong if the race runs neutral or late. A score I have been watching and seems to have some power as a “Final” predictor when choosing between your top candidates is the BAL score. Note here the 5 has the best BAL score. See the Energy screen for more info on the balance of Early and Late energy expenditure. It looks like the 5 is a little better than the 8 if the race runs neutral or late. She is my choice for key.

The segments screen confirms our analysis. It shows our 5 horse coming up #1 on both sides of the screen as we might expect with our neutral projection. But wait we have a couple of questions arise? What about her 62 day layoff? What about her 1st fraction where she falls 10.7 back?


Let’s check her past performances.
The 5’s past performances.



To be continued in the next frame.

[kahunab]

And to be fair lets look at her competition the 8.

Our first choice, the 5 looks like she tends to come off of a layoff, albeit shorter layoffs. Her last one was terrible. The 8 looks strong off of her last two outings both + races. Let’s take a look at one more screen the New Pace screen.
We note a couple of things. One, mostly late horses near the top and they are the fastest. 5 again tiers as the number one horse and the number two is the 8. Which one do we key?



5 has the preponderance of evidence in her favor but also a couple of negatives. Long layoff, showed nothing after the last layoff, looks like she falls to far back in the first fraction……. The 8 looks more solid across the board with her scores but is early in a late or neutral race.
I know you have all faced this situation regularly. I think that when you do play it play it the same way each time or don’t play the race. I tend to go with the preponderance of the evidence, especially those that are not related to line selection. One could very easily make the case for the 8 on the same criteria. I chose the 5 because she tiered better on the segments screen, the BL/BL and the New Pace screens and all her late ratings. I keyed the 5 with the 8, 2,1 the other arrow horses and I threw in the 4 as my key was going off at 4 to 1. I am sure that some of you would debate that, but I guess that’s why the horses run. BTW if you keyed the 8 in the trifecta you also had a winner.

So how did they run?



Thanks for reading through this long discussion.

[dadams6357]

Well no doubt about this ,I face this whenever I bet.
If I am betting an exacta, I would bet both the 5 and 8 to win.
I use the Tandem screen if you have a situation where the 5/8 have raced
against each other go with the one that beats the others.
If your using the Tandem screen pretty much discount stuff that
is to old. What is old...what one thinks it is.
Long layoff check the workout screen.
How does trainer do after long layoffs
On occasion looking at brisnet PP. Sometimes you run
into a Racing style E E/P etc. Where one style
may be winning like 70% of time..well see if they are
in that group of Running styles.
Place go with the 5/8 and the NP horses.
Maybe look at the segment screen go with the most
colors for place (I have seen enough horses that are like 10+
at F1 and win the race...In theses cases look at PP (past performance)
If a horse has been doing nothing but good races then ignore the F1.
especially if it is predominately wins)
Betting Tri I would use the same logic , maybe..for third place throw a
couple more hay burners in for xtra good measure.
This is what I do...sometimes I will hit all the screens...if shove comes
to push. Can always relying on connecting to a higher source.

By the way Dick...Thanks for posting these Case studies.
It helps one think about what
they do when handicapping.
As always appreciate it.

Don

[kahunab]

Thanks, Don,

I do like the discussion. I think it can help us all.

Dick

[The Pook]

Dick,

Why do you have red arrow horses? I see no such thing when I run RDSS. And what does the red arrow mean compared to the blue arrow keys?

Pook

[kahunab]

Originally Posted by The Pook

Dick,

Why do you have red arrow horses? I see no such thing when I run RDSS. And what does the red arrow mean compared to the blue arrow keys?

Pook

Hi,
If you click on any blue arrow, it will turn red. I make the arrow for my key horse red. It helps me keep track of the horse through all the screens.

Dick

[The Pook]

Well how about that! Cool.

Thanks