Woodbine 05/31 races

[Bill Lyster]

At first look, there is a lot of color on the LP screen. Nice exacta and trifecta if you can get it. The winner is top 2 Rx 3

One particular note is that three of the horses have positive EPR values - the 7, 3 and 5. It is not a surprise to see that none of them hit the board.



Here is the velocity screen sorted by running style.



The 3-5-7 have %Med at or over 67.9 and should be considered for demotion. Look at the 4 and 2 relative to the 3 and 7. the F2 and F3 values plus the closeness of the SC values reinforce the demotions of these three.


Still a lot of color in the screen shot so lets see what we can eliminate using the Segments screen sorted by running style.


This race has two oddities in my view, first the poly race from Wyoming and the 7.5 turf race by the 1. There are two horses that are farthest from the lead at SC, the 1 and the 8. that being the case the horse that gains the least is the 1. On the other hand the 6 is ranked in three of the four factors and is ranked 5th in the TS category, so you could keep the 6 and win a bundle. I would demote either the 1 or 8 leaving six horses. Of the contenders the one with the best NP graph value is the 2. Key him with the other five in the exacta $46 or wheel him in the trifecta 1-5-5 for $30 and smile alot with a $400+ return! Sometimes you just cannot easily separate the non win types!

[dadams6357]

Thanks Bill
Appreciate it.
Don

[Bill Lyster]

This is the LP screen after demoting horses with no Rx3 pts and after screening the remaining field by sort the Segments screen by running style. There were only P and S horses in this race. the worst P was the 8 and the worst S was the 4, so we are down to 6 horses.

Recall that I am using best of last three lines in this analysis, but as in any race scenario you should look at the lines and make a judgment on the robo line chosen. So I am going to look at the 2-3-6-9 and see if the lines reasonably reflect what the horses could expected to do today.



First up is the 2. The line chosen is the 1, its best SR so far whereas as a 2yo its best was a 71. On the plus side the trainer thought he might have a good horse and entered in 3 stakes races after a first out win.

I think if the horse is good it is reasonable to expect better races once the horse matures from 2 to 3. I would probably leave line selection for this horse as is.




The 3 was not raced at 2 and broke its maiden in its 6th start, 226 days ago with an 85 SR rating. All its previous races had a best of 72. Do we really think that a come backer could match its best ever SR by 13 in its first time out this year?

Doubtful or iffy. Using the SR 72 would not make this a contender.



The 6 has one race this year and ran to its other sprint SRs but its one route was an 82 vs its previous 77 and it is not unusual to see outings after the first after layoff to improve, so I would accept the 82 SR as doable. It also has a workout rating of 99% AFTER its last race. Keep this one.



The 9 is a one time winner from 17 starts; its line tied for its best ever on poly and its workouts are average at best in preparation after a 174 day layoff.



If you demote either the 3 or 9 you get good payoffs. I will show the Segments screens from which I made preliminary demotions in the next post.

[Bill Lyster]

Field after demotion of horses with 0 Rx3 points


The 8 is the worst of the Pressers and the 4 is the worst of the Sustained horses.


The Segments screen sorted prior to final evaluations and demotions


The Final Segments screen after review and further demotions


The LP screen after demotions. The winner was always the #1 Rx3 horse, one of the NP horses and the horse with best NP graph.

[Bill Lyster]

No tricks here, just the best read outs: The LP screen and then the LP with two demoted for not having Rx3 points;






The Segments screen for the 8 remaining horses sorted by running style. But notice that the two demoted for 0 Rx pts have the highest FIN and VDC% numbers.



I deleted the 1 and 3 as worst two pressers with highest VDC %. This leaves 6 horses. The 2 who is 5.9 back at SC, farther back than all the Pressers and a FIN number that is 6th in the field can be demoted. The 2 has the lowest SR of these horses, is not top 5 TE, not top 5 CSR, is missing several top 5 rankings in the arrow and supplemental data. When you demote the horse, great payoffs LOOM! $445 exacta and $2100+ trifecta!!!

[Bill Lyster]

LP screen with all contenders but three have 12F races chosen for them. At first glance you see they were top 2 Rx 3, but the winner is at the bottom. Lets look at each of the 12F horses for a line more in line with the distances of the other horses.



The 3 is a dedicated front runner but only has one poly line and its closer to todays date than the 9F turf races.



The 7 has run 3 marathons in a row, has no poly races but four past races on turf with mid to high 85 SRs. I chose line 5, not its best but competitive



The 8 is second off a 175 day layoff; raced in G2 last out; has a 95% work after last work. The 82 SR is good enough after a layoff and with no other long layoffs the one that should be used.



The revised contenders with lines at or about todays distance. Segments screen sorted by running style.


Demote the presser, 2, and the 6, relatively high %med, but next in line has superior F2 and F3. Demote the 8, farthest back of the S horses at SC; tied for last FIN and worst VDC%.

The one is shown as a Presser from its best ever line, when he actually ran sustained. If you use one or more of his presser lines he loses over 7 points in TPR value and its his comeback race after a 119 day layoff and no previous layoffs to look into. So the apparent loss of ground by the 3 is not likely to develop. If you demote the 1 the 3 gains betwee F1 and SC. Another good round of prices. $55 exacta and $119 trifecta. The 7 had the highest graph value on NP and either the 7 or 3 would have been a suitable arrow horse for wheel purposes.

[Bill Lyster]

After demoting the 1, the real early, 3, looks better.