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Old 06-22-2025, 04:38 PM   #11
Bill Lyster
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,491
Race 6 turf

At first look, there is a lot of color on the LP screen. Nice exacta and trifecta if you can get it. The winner is top 2 Rx 3

One particular note is that three of the horses have positive EPR values - the 7, 3 and 5. It is not a surprise to see that none of them hit the board.

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Here is the velocity screen sorted by running style.

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The 3-5-7 have %Med at or over 67.9 and should be considered for demotion. Look at the 4 and 2 relative to the 3 and 7. the F2 and F3 values plus the closeness of the SC values reinforce the demotions of these three.

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Still a lot of color in the screen shot so lets see what we can eliminate using the Segments screen sorted by running style.

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This race has two oddities in my view, first the poly race from Wyoming and the 7.5 turf race by the 1. There are two horses that are farthest from the lead at SC, the 1 and the 8. that being the case the horse that gains the least is the 1. On the other hand the 6 is ranked in three of the four factors and is ranked 5th in the TS category, so you could keep the 6 and win a bundle. I would demote either the 1 or 8 leaving six horses. Of the contenders the one with the best NP graph value is the 2. Key him with the other five in the exacta $46 or wheel him in the trifecta 1-5-5 for $30 and smile alot with a $400+ return! Sometimes you just cannot easily separate the non win types!
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