PRX 09/24 Race 3 - Selecting KEY

[Bill Lyster]

Reasons to downgrade the 6 as the KEY:


Well, my model for PRX races says that horses with 90+ day layoffs only win about 1.5-1.75% of the time. This horse's last race was 83 days ago which is getting near the cutoff point.

Using line 1 from 83 days ago is using a 5.5 furlong race.

The work outs since raced do not demand attention, looking pretty much maintanence level.

No indication that the horse ever faired well after a LO of this number of days;

Only win in sight was a wire job at this claiming level, but slightly higher race class;

Personally, I shy away from best of last 10 as they rarely get repeated and after 83 days!!??

The predominant LPR for this horse is mid to upper 70s and the 82 ASR was accomplished on a -31 variant. If all the horses were rated off high negative variants I might use the horse, but I like my fields to come from races where the spread of variants is much closer.